I think the trial of saddam hussein if started before the election would greatly help W. I read last month where the Iraq government had asked it's court system to promply bring that monster to trial, but nothing has occured yet.
An October suprise gift from Iraq to W?
Good news in the war would certainly buoy Republicans, but I think the same argument against the bad news goes against the good news. People who are going to vote on the basis of the war, have long since made up their minds. Just my humble opinion though.