Look at the last three of the five Newsweek/PSRAI polls. Note the big dip in Republicans during the Democrat Convention. Down by 5.4%, the Dems went up by 2.9% and Kerry got a 49% to 42% lead over Bush.
Now look at September, it swings the other way, now too few Dems and too many Republicans. Makes Bush look better than he is and would allow for Newsweek to portray John Kerry as 'charging' back in the next few weeks.
That's why the political affiliation breakdowns are so important, to prevent the 'whip-saw'...
dvwjr
I have thought the same thing - that the oversampling of Republicans will make a "Kerry comeback" apparent in the next polls. The MSM know that Bush is ahead, but want to show him with negative momentum around the time of the election, so they are reporting the most favorable Bush polls now.
Whether the oversampling is intentional or not, I expect that we will see Kerry's numbers improve a bit, and the media will plaster his comeback all over the headlines.
Just because I’m paranoid doesn’t mean they’re not all out to get me.
I'm guessing that Newsweek is gambling that more people decided on the spot that they were Republicans after the speech, which seems reasonable to me (although not 37%). If their bounce showed Bush leading by 12% and dvwjr's showed Bush leading by 8% I'd guess the truth is somewhere in between.
I can understand the concern about over sampling by some pollsters as a hidden attempt to provide a basis for a future claim that Bush's lead is eroding, but isn't that a bit of a risky propostion?
1. Time and Newsweek risk being over shadowed by more reputable polling. Especially if other polls settle in at a 7-8% lead.
2. They risk discouraging Kerry's base as there are some who will throw their hands in the air and simply give up.
I wouldn't put anything past these rags, just don't know how effective this is.