Replies

I can understand the concern about over sampling by some pollsters as a hidden attempt to provide a basis for a future claim that Bush's lead is eroding, but isn't that a bit of a risky propostion?

1. Time and Newsweek risk being over shadowed by more reputable polling. Especially if other polls settle in at a 7-8% lead.

2. They risk discouraging Kerry's base as there are some who will throw their hands in the air and simply give up.

I wouldn't put anything past these rags, just don't know how effective this is.

"Time and Newsweek risk being over shadowed by more reputable polling. Especially if other polls settle in at a 7-8% lead. "

- I'm no statistician, but the over-weighting seemed to be producing about a 3% increase in the spread between Bush and Kerry. In other words Time and Newsweek were showing about a 11% spread when in fact it was closer to 8%. This 3% difference is within the margin of error for such polls so even if a more reputable poll came in at a 8 or 9% spread, they wouldn't be too embarrassed - the difference could be explained away as merely a sampling deviation.