[shield]

The middle track is what you are now thinking, right?

[alancarp]

I ain't stickin' my neck out on this one!! Heck, the experts can't figure it out! But to answer your question, yes, that is essentially what the GFDL, GFS, and Euro models are saying - plus what Joe Bastardi of Accuweather has been postulating for a solid week (to his credit, he hasn't flipped at all, but is willing to be proved wrong if it happens).

Oh: Joe B. called the Charley turn into Ft. Myers exactly right, and has called Bonnie, Gaston, Alex all dead on as well. I have to respect his opinion, and part of it is that the very geography of Florida makes it very difficult to bring a storm in from the Southeast. Floyd missed. Andrew came in from due East. Erin (1995) made it, but came in to Vero Beach after a jog to make it more of a ESE-angled hit.

For a Florida hit on the angle shown, a recurving hurricane basically has to run out of room to turn!