[weatherFrEaK]

there's another one still equally likely: a slow-down as Frances approaches could portend a turn straight up the coast (a la Floyd's path)

Not going to happen this time. There will be no Florida-saving trough to pick her up and away this time. The closest trough will be over on the NW coast of the USA. In fact, if it slows, it is more likely to bend back to the west this time.

[alancarp]

I hope you're right, but there are steering currents and the western edge of the Bermuda High to consider... both of these factors will permit a northerly turn if the 800 lbs. gorilla wants to go there. The worst case scenario includes a stall off the coast until those steering currents push it north.

Mind you, I sure hope that doesn't happen, but I do think it still in the cards.

The reported position is 22.0N by 71.0W - in line with prior motion. Still expecting a turn to the NW and decrease in speed...