A people's army has no rival!
Posted on 08/21/2004 5:47:15 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
Ping!
Jeff..I pinged you..here's the plot for your next novel.
Only if it isn't blown to smithereens in the process. Also, aren't many of Taiwan's businessmen involved with mainland manufacturing already, thereby bringing wealth, to China, if not to the military/business clique?
Boy, talk about a military/industrial complex--China really has it in spades!
a fascinating new book
"the pentagon's new map"
thomas barnett
makes the opposite claim- that china will not invade taiwan because of the impact on world trade. China is a huge trading nation and trading nations don't invade.
Demographics suggests when a large percentage of males have no wives chances of invasion increase.
I can see both sides.
Would an offer of US statehood be a trigger?
The author leaves out 2 or even 3 indirectly related triggers-
1.A big outbreak of anti-party protests & violence in provinces like Xinjiang(Muslim dominated) & Tibet or even in the mainland may throw Beijing offguard and present a tempting opportunity for Taiwan to declare independence & force China to attack in order to preserve unity(given that Taiwan is an emotive uniting factor on the mainland).
2.Big Regional flareups with Indonesia or Vietnam over the Spratleys,with Japan over any crisis in North Korea or with India(in the event of an Indo-Pak war) may also make Beijing to try & subvert attention by launching a swift war on Taiwan.
3.The event of the US getting "tied down" in North Korea or Iran is yet another window of opportunity for China given the likelyhood that the US population won't be interested in another war,this time with a nuclear power.
You forgot:
0. Election of John F. Kerry,
assuring the PRC a free hand in
trashing Taiwan.
A people's army has no rival!
Not just that. For China to gain regional superiourity, control of Taiwan means control of a major shipping lane.
If they control Taiwain, and the Spratleys, they can pretty much control any goods shipped from the Indian Ocean up to Korea and Japan.
They are just forward thinking for hegemony,thats all.
In the end...they will miscalculate and be brought down...but it will take a lot of blood and loss to do it.
IMHO, the only way we can avoid a major conflict is to act now, like Reagan did with the Soviets, and maginalize, stop funding, and isolate them...so their totalitarian system can bankrupt itself. That will be extremely hard and painful to do at this point...but not as hard or painful as the alternative IMHO.
See my post 12.
To stop funding the Communists & bankrupting them is indeed a good idea-but is it possible??The Europeans were wholeheartedly involved in bleeding the Soviets,but now the EU (including the UK) see China as a money minting have & have pretty much given up on Taiwan.The Soviets had the PRC as a not so friendly neighbour(& Western ally)- but Russia needs Chinese arms purchases to survive & will only sacrifice it's relationship with China to help the US once it itself feels directly threatened.
& While due credit must be given to Reagan,the economic (& to a lesser extent political) collapse of the Soviet Union started in the late 60s to 70s,Reagan just accelerated the process.China on the other hand has a booming economy(a fact which only certain Freepers don't want to believe)-most nations,including the US would'nt want to go to war with the biggest market in the world.
To stop funding the Communists & bankrupting them is indeed a good idea-but is it possible??The Europeans were wholeheartedly involved in bleeding the Soviets,but now the EU (including the UK) see China as a money minting have & have pretty much given up on Taiwan.The Soviets had the PRC as a not so friendly neighbour(& Western ally)- but Russia needs Chinese arms purchases to survive & will only sacrifice it's relationship with China to help the US once it itself feels directly threatened.
& While due credit must be given to Reagan,the economic (& to a lesser extent political) collapse of the Soviet Union started in the late 60s to 70s,Reagan just accelerated the process.China on the other hand has a booming economy(a fact which only certain Freepers don't want to believe)-most nations,including the US would'nt want to go to war with the biggest market in the world.
As to the PRC, I am afraid that unless we find a way to economically cease the funding of the red Chinese...we will be fighting a major conflict against them some day...and not too far in the future.
Well put....excellant thread thus far. Thanks for the ping Jeff !
Stay safe !
Another option in defeating the communists is to help in creating a large well-educated middle class in China. At a critial level, they will want and demand democracy.
This was origionally a plan of Republic of China to retake mainland, but don't if it is still their plan?
Beijing has stonewalled all of Taipei's offersTaiwan should keep making the offers, but never agree to anything in any talks that actually come about. China's not interested in anything except capitulation. It's already been nearly 60 years. In another 40 or 50 years world support for China's nonsense will be at an end, and China's population will be roughly half what it is today. There will be no living memory of Mao, and very likely the single party state apparatus will have drifted even further out of relevance.
The attitudes of any middle class is primarily related to its economic condition.The middle classes in France during the 1780s,in Poland in 80s & the Indian Freedom struggle all faced severe economic discrimination along with political & social problems.If China has the middle class it has now,it is due to the economic reforms of the 1980s & the subsequent boom.An excellent parallel to present day China is Germany before the 2nd world war-Hitler was the most popular leader even when the war was going downhill & it was proven beyond doubt that he was ruthless megalomaniac.The reason for this support was the massive employment the German economy generated in the 1930s (consequental increase in living standards) & his tagline of Germans being the Master race & Aryan Pride.
In short,while political factors are important,economic conditions are the prime deciding factors of any middle class action & it is acknowledged that most folks on the mainland feel proud to be Chinese now.
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