[ken5050]

Well, they have to get to Taiwan before Hong Kong collapses...question for ya..can you see PRC doing anythig BEFORE the 2008 Olympics?..Woudl they risk jepardizing the Games?..Or, perhaps, is it the ultimate "maskirova"..they'd launch they attack, as the Opening Ceremonies begin? The'd have , what 100,000+ hostages, er "guests"..

Jeff..I pinged you..here's the plot for your next novel.

[Jeff Head]

I believe there are only two triggers at this point:

1. Is China prepared economically to cut us loose?
2. Does China believe it can handle our carriers?

When they feel they can answer these two questions to themsleves in the affirmative...they will act. And it probably will be after they get us embroiled more heavily in the Middle East and after N. Korea is taken off its leash and attacks the South.

In the end...they will miscalculate and be brought down...but it will take a lot of blood and loss to do it.

IMHO, the only way we can avoid a major conflict is to act now, like Reagan did with the Soviets, and maginalize, stop funding, and isolate them...so their totalitarian system can bankrupt itself. That will be extremely hard and painful to do at this point...but not as hard or painful as the alternative IMHO.