Posted on 08/14/2004 2:10:05 PM PDT by areafiftyone
President Bush lands in Seattle this afternoon to continue his fight against John Kerry, the polls, pundits and 20 years of history.
A Republican hasn't won the presidential vote in Washington since 1984. Most GOP candidates since then hardly could be bothered to try.
But Bush is running as if voters here swing like Count Basie.
It's not just optimism.
The president is following a carefully crafted plan to turn this piece of traditionally Democratic territory in the left-hand corner of the nation into one of the year's 17 or so swing states.
"From the first day I got this job, the Bush campaign and the White House told me Washington would be important, and nobody believed me," said Republican state Chairman Chris Vance.
He says he's seen polls showing Bush close to Democrat John Kerry in Washington. But more than that, Vance sees Bush visits, a steady stream of TV commercials and national party leaders' abiding interest in the state as proof that Washington is in play.
"The Bush campaign isn't stupid, and they would not be targeting it if it were not competitive," Vance said. "Step one is just be here, come here, campaign here, spend your money here. And they've done all of that."
Bush begins his campaign day in Portland. Kerry is also there today, ending a two-week, cross-country road tour.
Kerry will be in Seattle Aug. 27.
Four years ago, Vice President Al Gore finished with 5 percent more of the Washington vote than Bush. And that was with Green Party candidate Ralph Nader getting 4 percent.
Democrat Bill Clinton won even more easily in 1992 and 1996.
Various polls show Kerry with an advantage over Bush in this state, running from about the size of Gore's victory four years ago to a poll cited by Vance that has the president only a percentage point behind Kerry.
Vance says that shows the Republican plan to turn Washington into a swing state is working.
Here is a more detailed look at the GOP's five steps to swingdom:
1. Advertise like Sleep Country USA.
Bush may not be on the air as much as the mattress retailer yet, but the campaign is spending record amounts of money on TV. He's matching Kerry's ad spending here, said Sam Rodriguez, the Kerry campaign's Washington director. He said both campaigns have spent about $3.3 million on air time so far.
1-½. Make your opponent work harder.
Bush's air time in Washington requires Kerry and the Democrats to respond. If Bush, like his father did twice before, pulled out of the state, Kerry could spend his money elsewhere, because conventional wisdom says the state likely would vote Democratic.
While the Kerry camp considers Washington Democratic territory, Rodriguez says, the war in Iraq ranks as voters' top issue — and how that tips for either candidate can change based on events far out of control of the campaign.
"You can't ever walk away," he said. "You have to continue to spend resources, build an infrastructure that prepares you for those unexpected events that could swing one way or another."
2. Follow the money.
It's not just votes that has Bush coming back to Washington.
"They have found we are a great place for contributions," said Rep. Jennifer Dunn, R-Bellevue, chairwoman of the state's Bush campaign.
So far this year, state donors have given Bush more than $2.7 million, according to the latest figures available. That puts Washington 20th on the list of most lucrative states for Bush campaign cash.
A fund-raiser is the only thing on Bush's agenda for today's visit. He will be in Medina at corporate executive Gary Reed's house. The campaign hopes to raise $1.75 million there.
This will be Bush's fourth visit to the state since becoming president. The visits have been a mix of fund-raisers and meetings with local officials and business leaders. All of the meetings, including the president's visit to Fort Lewis in June, have been considered official White House business. There have been no public rallies.
"Certainly we would like to have more public events, and every time he comes in we ask for one," Dunn said.
3. Have gobs of money.
If the president's re-election campaign hadn't raised so much money this year nationally, Washington could have slid off the list of battlegrounds.
"What we saw before was some candidates for president would pull out and put the money in Illinois or some place because they were so limited with funds," Dunn said.
4. Play the local media.
Both campaigns have courted local media, causing some grumbling among the national press corps embedded with the candidates. But local coverage can be less critical, bordering on the promotional.
As the Los Angeles Times reported about Kerry's coast-to-coast swing, "Such 'locals' are greeted warmly by the campaign. Unlike the national media ('You guys look right through this stuff,' said one Kerry staffer, 'thinking it's all stage-managed'), local reporters tend to give candidates a more positive reception."
5. Worry about the bottom of the ticket.
The White House worked hard to find GOP candidates for governor and U.S. Senate whom the president and vice president were comfortable with. They apparently found them in gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi and Senate candidate Rep. George Nethercutt. Hard to imagine Bush sidling up comfortably to the 1996 GOP gubernatorial nominee, Ellen Craswell, who later left the party because it had become too liberal.
For those not in the know. Washington voters have the rare opportunity to vote for senator, governor, and president.
Yeah we're going for the Trifecta! Bush, Rossi and Nethercutt!
This is a very positive development. You dont see W trying to shore up his base or focus solely on Ohio or Florida to the point of desperation. He is in a good enough position to look elsewhere for votes.
This could be a blowout.
Today I had the Privilege to watch AIR FORCE ONE!! Take off right over my head at Boeing Field,Seattle!
It was AWE Inspiring, either that or I am a total dork.....
I may have even Saluted....LOL!!!!!!!
Registered five voters in Washington today. One definite Bush, one probable Bush, and I'll bet we get at least one of the other three.
I've always thought that people were missing the point when they criticized Rove for trying to win California. I happen to agree that in that specific instance it wasn't such a hot idea, but the point was to attack from all angles--it's not like non-Californians didn't hear soundbites from the speeches, for example.
By treating many states like swing states, he's making Kerry spend, and he looks like an enthusiastic candiadte for ALL Americans.
When I hear a presidential candidate "pulling out" of certain states it simply looks bad, and doesn't show momentum going to that candidate.
In individual states this technique may not work; but throughout the country it has benefits. If a candidate came to my state over and over, and dropped other states, I'd be wondering...
I think so too.
You are too funny! :-)
Good for you! Excellent!
LOL - Yours are just as bad as mine. I have UpChuck Schumer and the Hildebeast!
You are lucky. I've never seen it and if I did I would be in awe too! I don't think I ever will see it living the City of New York.
Yes, yes and yes!!!!!!!!!! AND we need to dump that POS Governor of ours!
Only the Dim's think GWB is stupid.
How many times do they need to be kicked in the head before they say WOW?
Amen and Amen!
Me too, and it's a daily BARF alert every time they speak.
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