CHARLEY BECOMES A (CATEGORY 4 Now!!) HURRICANE (18 ft. storm surge)

NHC ^ | 08-13-2004 | Forecaster Lawrence

[nwctwx]

That's true, worth noting. Once you get past 150mph gusts, even stronger buildings have trouble. The eyewall of a storm like this (or andrew) is often as powerful as a significant tornado.

[Howlin]

All the talking heads on the shows tonight kept asking over and over "Shouldn't these people have been warned earlier?" "It is a problem with the people who predict these things?" "Is it the software?" "How could this have happened?"

Somebody even asked Jeb Bush that at his late afternoon press conference.

[ntnychik]

Do you have any information on Englewood?

[ApesForEvolution]

Oh, B.S. You've got to be joking...

[Howlin]

I strongly believe it was actually a Cat 5 at landfall.

I remember you saying that!

[wxdawg]

Hi everyone,
Well, this is my first time to post to FR. I have been a lurker for several years...but, tonight I finally decided to register.

That said, I am a meteorologist with NASA here in DC. I have to say I am extremely concerned about the damage we may see in the morning in Port Charlotte, FL. And , of course, the possible casualties. Unfortunately, I remember the aftermath of Andrew...not hearing reports from Homestead for many, many hours. While this storm was not an Andrew, it was almost certainly stronger than Hugo.

I also heard the comment by the caller to NBC 2 in Ft. Myers. I felt very bad for their on-air meteorologist. Hurricane intensity forecasts are still a VERY inexact science. Many of you may remember Hurricane Lili last fall before it hit LA. It was a cat 4, but suddenly (and unexpectedly) decreased in intensity to a cat 1. Today, we saw the opposite occur. Hurricane intensity forecasts must always be taken with a grain of salt...we still do not understand fully how the internal dynamics of a hurricane work.

As far as track forecast goes...I have to say I am not pleased with that either. However, Hurricane warnings and mandatory evac orders were put in place for the Ft. Myers/Pt. Charlotte area on Thursday morning. This is done, again, to account for known error in track forecasts. All research meteorologists know this...I just wish that broadcast ones would emphasize this more than they do...I honestly believe they are afraid to do so because it would make their station not look as "accurate" as the others in the market.

Sorry for the long post...especially for a first one...but just wanted to vent a bit. God bless the residents of FL.

[Wampus SC]

"Who, or what is the Gray Man?"

The Gray Man is supposed to be a ghost that shows up on Pawley's Island whenever a hurricane is going to hit. People have been reporting seeing him since the 1800's. His name comes from the gray coat they say he wears.

[nwctwx]

What's YOUR opinion about the possible effect on coastal Georgia? (and should I take a nap now or later?)

Probably not much effect (outside some gusty winds and a little rain). It will pass by all of GA within the next 6 hours.

[ApesForEvolution]

Thanks very much for your contribution and expertise...

[Kackikat]

I was in Charleston in 89 and left 20 days before Hugo hit...and glad I did.

[CobaltBlue]

>>Anyone who lives on the coast *ought to know* these projections are not an exact science.

Unfortunately people who are willing to blame the weather bureau are the type who don't get this to begin with. They'll complain if the warnings are excessive, they'll complain if the warnings are insufficient, they'll complain if things don't turn out exactly as predicted, and they'll probably complain if things turn out exactly as predicted because it wasn't soon enough or often enough.

The common thread here is "they'll complain."

For people who suffered loss of life or loss of property, all I can do is feel compassion. Let them vent if it makes them feel better.

[ApesForEvolution]

They drink a lot of moonshine still on PI...

[ApesForEvolution]

Exactly...

[Sam Cree]

Welcome aboard, nice post.

[nwctwx]

Good to see someone else with 'wx' in their name. Unfortunately, it looks like you agree with my thoughts about the possible damage in the area surrounding landfall.

[Mr. Jeeves]

Welcome! Genuine expertise from posters is always valuable, because these threads seem to attract a lot of ill-founded speculation.

[Howlin]

Watch the rerun of Keith Olbermann, for starters.

[ApesForEvolution]

Hey, can I ask you something?

[Howlin]

Looking back in the #100's posts, you were dead on the money.

[Jorge]

Bro, I think your comment came across as a little insensitive. I wouldn't have jumped on you for it, but it might have been misinterpreted. Why don't you guys just drop it.

Fine with me.

By the way, if you find the idea of looking for shells on the beach after a storm "a little insensitive".......I had freinds who were native Floridians who actually said they hoped for hurricanes because it was exciting.

I went through the northern eye wall of Andrew, sustained winds of 165+mph. And yes, I think that talking about collecting shells at this time is a bit low.

Are you trying to make me laugh on purpose or what? I wasn't talking about looking for shells in 165 mph winds.

I was talking about looking for the shells the storm washed up AFTER it was over. Unless you think there should be some moratorium on going the beach in Florida after a hurricane out of respect for the dead or damaged property.