| Tropical Storm Bonnie and Hurricane Charley |
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A brief weather post, I feel the 'threat' warrants more attention: Key points at this time: Major East Coast Flooding is likely during the next 7 days IF both of these storms manage to take similar paths up the eastern seaboard there will be widespread flooding up and down the coast. Areas from the Northern Middle Atlantic into Southern New England have already been soaked this summer, few places need more rain. Storms today dropped over 3" of rain in NYC causing flooding at Kennedy Airport. The track of Bonnie is almost a given at this point, the map above represents rainfall almost entirely from Bonnie and is probably slightly underdone. Bonnie will likely put down a swath of 5-10" (localized 12"+) of rain as it quickly races northeast after landfall tomorrow (Thursday). Typically, a storm system moving so fast does not drop prolific rainfall totals, but Bonnie will have the aide of a stalled frontal system on the East Coast. The two separate lifting mechanisms may combine to bring a 6 hour punch of 2"/hour rainfall rates to some locales. Charley is still a big question mark. A Florida hit appears likeliest at this point, but some things today are focusing my attention towards the FL Panhandle/Coastal Alabama area. So far, Charley has stayed further south than any computer models suggested. This will allow the storm to have less interaction with land, and it is quite possible that it will be a very strong storm (verging on Category 3/Major) once it gets into the Gulf of Mexico. The bigger the storm gets, the less it will be pulled along by the jet stream to the north. If it can gain enough steam to become a major hurricane, all bets are off. By late tomorrow evening, questions in regards to a Florida hit will be answered. This East Coast Trough (frontal system - jet stream buckle) is VERY strong for august and is actually much more typical once we get into Autumn in the US. If Charley does not manage to create it's own weather, he will certainly go right up the east coast after the initial hit somewhere in the eastern GOM. This following image is a historical map of where storms have gone that have been in Charley's neighborhood. If western Florida does get hit, this will be a very unusual August storm system. I will update tomorrow morning if anyone is interested. |
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Bonnie : Model Plots
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on August 11, 2004 ...Bonnie somewhat disorganized...continuing northeastward toward
Charley : Model Plots
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on August 11, 2004 ...Charley heading for the Cayman Islands... a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the following provinces of At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the Hurricane Watch has been extended |
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