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The Iranians (correction - - the Iranian *regime*)is acting confident because they want us to believe, and may believe themselves, that they have not only a first-strike capability but a retaliatory one as well.

The reason the Israelis are distributing the radiation pills around the Negev (Dimona and any land-based Jericho missiles) and not in Tel Aviv or Jerusalem is that Dimona is the logical "pre-emptive"/first-strike target for the Iranians (or the initial retaliatory target in the event of Israeli and/or American actions against the sites at Bushehr, Natanz, Arak, etc.). They said so themselves. They probably figure an initial nuclear counter-force strike will play better with world opinion than direct targeting of Tel Aviv.

Most people do not realize that Saddam targeted Dimona in 1991. This is an old script. He was making the same calculations.

The Iranian regime is making a strategic miscalculation that they can deter a retaliatory escalation to their aggression if they confine the initial targeting to military related sites (Israeli and American military concentrations and infrastructure in the region). They also seem to believe they can deter a retaliatory escalation by the infiltration of WMD-armed "special forces" into the continental U.S. If we threaten massive retaliation against Iran, they can credibly threaten multiple responses here.

They are acting confident because they perceive their own capabilities to be vastly greater than we do (or than they actually are). If the North Koreans, Pakistanis, and a ragtag bunch of relatively unprofessional irregulars called "al Qaeda" can develop or get their hands on nuclear devices, why on earth do we not think the Iranians did not also do so long ago?

And if North Korea has had the capability to launch against the western continental U.S. for going on a decade (despite how much we want to downplay it). And the North Korean missile program is, in effect, a joint venture with Iran, as it has also been for a decade - - with much of the testing taking place in Iran rather than North Korea, why do we think that their missile capability is limited to the Shihab-3? Could Shihab-4 and Shihab-5 be much more advanced than any suspect?

If North Korea has had the Taepo-dong 2 all these years and possibly even tested the engine in Iran (with dozens if not hundreds of North Korean scientists stationed there), I guarantee you Iran has the weapon. It has probably never been flight tested (except in 1998 when the North Koreans hit either Alaska or right off the coast of Hawaii - - pick your "fish story" - - with a dummy warhead). But it does not have to be an accurate, militarily effective weapon to be a useful terror weapon.

You want a surprise attack? You don't need al Qaeda to sneak a nuke across the border (or someone more dangerous like Hezbollah or Iranian special forces). A long-range Taepo-dong-2 launched from the area around Tabriz could theoretically reach the eastern seaboard.

An ICBM launched from the east is just as credible a threat to NYC and DC as the morons trying to cross the border. Activating Ft. Greeley is fine and dandy. We need to be just as concerned about having an intercept capability on the east side as well.

They are betting we won't risk taking this to the next level if they go against Israel and/or Iraq and/or our bases in the region because they feel they can hold our own major population centers hostage by infiltration or missile strike (including DPRK capabilities in a possible two-front war).

They also probably hope to achieve their objectives (as warped as the thinking may be) by deterring our nuclear retaliatory escalation through their long-range missile and terrorist-delivered WMD threats, paralyze us at home with these attacks leading up to a divisive election, force a bloody and violent regional stalemate with bio and chem (which they also have in abundance), and play for time by trying to shut Hormuz and trying to strangle the world economy with over $100/barrel oil hoping either we will cry uncle or the rest of the world will try to force us to cry uncle as the global economy collapses and the WMD-induced casualties amass exponentially on the battlefield and on the homefronts.

If they fail to deter a retaliation, then they hope the use of WMD (nuclear) by either the Israelis or ourselves, or both, even in retaliation to their first-use, will be sufficient to incite the entire region to descend on Jerusalem in a "holy war" (which no one except a few fanatics want at the moment). The theocratic faction that seized back power earlier this year in Tehran is irrational and fanatical. They are old and frightened men. And they will sacrifice their people in the name of their ideology.

And the Iranian people, most of whom are under 30, are about the only people (besides Israel) in the region that loves America. Remember the spontaneous 9/11 candlelight vigils? The mullahs in Tehran are using their people as human shields hoping to deter retaliation. And if that fails, using the corpses of their own people to incite jihad.

It is a huge miscalculation, but there is a method behind their madness.

This is what their "prepositioning" is all about(surveillance and infiltration).

Perhaps there are still brave Iranians in positions of power in the government, military and security services, and even the clergy, who quietly see that this course, set by the aging criminal clerics who oppress them, is one of national suicide. Not just national suicide - - international suicide. If Israel is hit, it will respond disproportionately. A holocaust will not be confined to Israel as the mullahs (the bad ones) want. The holocaust will engulf the entire region, including them.

And maybe the oppressed silent majority of quietly brave and good Iranians will take action to undermine and stop these madmen. They are the ones who will have to stop the lunatics who seek to let loose upon mankind this nuclear jinn that has been bottled up.

Before it is too late for all of us.