Well, if the track on TD-5 verifies, it will also be going over some of the warmest waters in the North Atlantic System.
https://128.160.23.54/products/K10/caribbeank10.gif
You will notice that Charley took the path of warmest water available. This was part of the reason for the explosive development yesterday.
You are right about "stirring" up the sea, the process is called upwelling (cooler water comes to the surface). That said, that water in the GOM is so warm that I am not sure how much upwelling did occur (especially since the storm was moving fast).
The final track is highly dependent on the East Coast trough. There are some indications that the trough will relax somewhat in the coming days. If that occurs, a recurve similar to Charley is unlikely.
If I had to make a guess at this time, I would say the storm is headed for the western or northern GOM (more typical track for an August storm in that region). If this is a hurricane when it gets into the Gulf, the chances are very good for another large storm.
