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Political analyst sees Kerry victory (U of Va's Larry Sabato tells why)
BIRMINGHAM NEWS ^
| August 08, 2004
| DAVID WHITE
Posted on 08/09/2004 8:25:06 AM PDT by Liz
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Sabato said Kerry, a U.S. senator from Massachusetts, is a liberal in the spirit of U.S. Sen. Ted Kennedy, D-Mass., and former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis. But Sabato said that likely will matter little before Nov. 2, since this election will mainly be a referendum on Bush and whether he deserves another four years in office.
1
posted on
08/09/2004 8:25:08 AM PDT
by
Liz
To: Liz
The election always is a referendum on the incumbent. Larry Sabato says this BEFORE the GOP convention. If the election were held now, I'd think he'd be right on money. It isn't though and its a long way to November.
2
posted on
08/09/2004 8:28:00 AM PDT
by
goldstategop
(In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
To: Liz
Never believe Larry Sabato.
3
posted on
08/09/2004 8:28:27 AM PDT
by
Militiaman7
(Support our Troops! Vote Bush-Cheney 04)
To: Liz
Why are so many analysts saying that this race is already over?
4
posted on
08/09/2004 8:28:32 AM PDT
by
presidentbowen
(God Bless Ronald Reagan!)
To: Liz
When is the trial of saddam hussein scheculed to start?
5
posted on
08/09/2004 8:28:50 AM PDT
by
AxelPaulsenJr
(Excellence In Posting Since 1999)
To: Liz
I love the analysis, "if the election were held now."
Uh, its not, so that is a ridiculous, meaningless statement. There are three months of campaigning to go. Both campaigns adjust to that REALITY.
To: AxelPaulsenJr
What is Sabato's track record?
7
posted on
08/09/2004 8:30:59 AM PDT
by
fooman
(Get real with Kim Jung Mentally Ill about proliferation)
To: presidentbowen
Why are so many analysts saying that this race is already over?I don't know, but it seems that after elections it will always be reported that campaigns knew in the summer or early Fall they had no chance of winning. It's almost like they go through the motions when they know the outcome far in advance.
I don't know if Sabato is correct or not, but I hope we aren't whistling past the graveyard already.
8
posted on
08/09/2004 8:31:11 AM PDT
by
IrishGOP
To: fooman
9
posted on
08/09/2004 8:31:36 AM PDT
by
AxelPaulsenJr
(Excellence In Posting Since 1999)
To: Liz
Political analysts forsaw the same things in 2000 and in 2002.
10
posted on
08/09/2004 8:32:14 AM PDT
by
cripplecreek
(John kerry the Jim Jones candidate.)
To: Liz
Sigh - We'll have to endure another three months of the national media slamming the Iraq War, bringing up Abu Ghraib, hiding Kerry's dishonorable actions in slamming his fellow Vietnam Vets, and painting the economy in a bad light.
11
posted on
08/09/2004 8:33:03 AM PDT
by
Ciexyz
("FR, best viewed with a budgie on hand")
To: Liz
Democratic nominee John Kerry easily would beat Republican President George W. Bush if the presidential election was held now, political analyst Larry Sabato told members of the Business Council of Alabama Saturday.What a numbskull!
The election isn't today.
Candidates gauge their campaign strategy based on the November date, not on an August date.
The fact that neither the GOP convention or the debates have taken place obviously should be considered.
If the primaries had been held before Dean had his "dream scream", he would have won. But they weren't, so Kerry holds the nomination.
12
posted on
08/09/2004 8:33:26 AM PDT
by
dawn53
To: Liz
Good Monday morning to ya..relax..Bush has BOTH Clintons in his corner...Kerry doesn't have a chance..
13
posted on
08/09/2004 8:34:07 AM PDT
by
ken5050
(We've looked for WMD in Iraq for LESS time than Hillary looked for the Rose Law firm billing records)
To: Liz
Sabato said Bush also must deal with a mediocre economy and a sour mood among voters that sees the economic glass as half empty, not half full.A sour mood? Then why were consumer confidence and retail sales up?
14
posted on
08/09/2004 8:34:28 AM PDT
by
Dolphy
(Support swiftvets.com)
To: Liz
I wonder if Sabato would be willing to bet his job as a political analyst on a Kerry victory? I'd love to ask him.
15
posted on
08/09/2004 8:35:04 AM PDT
by
shortstop
( Win One For the Gipper)
To: A Simple Soldier
Sabato is engaging in wishful thinking. Its a little early to make a flat prediction Kerry's got it in the bag. He should wait til October before saying anything definite. Besides, there's still the GOP convention and no one knows at this point how big a bounce Bush will get. I think caution is deservedly in order here.
16
posted on
08/09/2004 8:35:18 AM PDT
by
goldstategop
(In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
To: presidentbowen
Why are so many analysts saying that this race is already over?I think many analysts are "projecting" their FEAR of a Leftist in the White House or their FERVENT DESIRE for a Leftist in the White House. The fundamentals are all in place for a major shift to the LEFT in this country. They may be reading TEA LEAVES but FEAR and HOPE are powerful emotions, difficult to hide.
Just one man's opinion!
17
posted on
08/09/2004 8:35:53 AM PDT
by
PISANO
(NEVER FORGET 911 !!!!)
To: ken5050
Heheh.......best analysis I've heard so far.
18
posted on
08/09/2004 8:36:08 AM PDT
by
Liz
To: Liz
Phil Dragoo makes this phoney baloney Cambodia adventure really easy to understand even for the pro Kerry Trolls on FR.
19
posted on
08/09/2004 8:36:22 AM PDT
by
Grampa Dave
(Has the Franchuran Dork candidate, le Jacquestrap Kerri ever not lied to Americans!")
To: AxelPaulsenJr
Larry Sabato was one of my professors at Georgetown in 1992. He was an OK professor; he seems to have become more famous in recent years.
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