Political analyst sees Kerry victory (U of Va's Larry Sabato tells why)

BIRMINGHAM NEWS ^ | August 08, 2004 | DAVID WHITE

[Liz]

Sabato said Kerry, a U.S. senator from Massachusetts, is a liberal in the spirit of U.S. Sen. Ted Kennedy, D-Mass., and former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis. But Sabato said that likely will matter little before Nov. 2, since this election will mainly be a referendum on Bush and whether he deserves another four years in office.

[goldstategop]

The election always is a referendum on the incumbent. Larry Sabato says this BEFORE the GOP convention. If the election were held now, I'd think he'd be right on money. It isn't though and its a long way to November.

[Militiaman7]

Never believe Larry Sabato.

[presidentbowen]

Why are so many analysts saying that this race is already over?

[AxelPaulsenJr]

When is the trial of saddam hussein scheculed to start?

[A Simple Soldier]

I love the analysis, "if the election were held now."

Uh, its not, so that is a ridiculous, meaningless statement. There are three months of campaigning to go. Both campaigns adjust to that REALITY.

[fooman]

What is Sabato's track record?

[IrishGOP]

Why are so many analysts saying that this race is already over?I don't know, but it seems that after elections it will always be reported that campaigns knew in the summer or early Fall they had no chance of winning. It's almost like they go through the motions when they know the outcome far in advance.

I don't know if Sabato is correct or not, but I hope we aren't whistling past the graveyard already.

[AxelPaulsenJr]

Never heard of him.

[cripplecreek]

Political analysts forsaw the same things in 2000 and in 2002.

[Ciexyz]

Sigh - We'll have to endure another three months of the national media slamming the Iraq War, bringing up Abu Ghraib, hiding Kerry's dishonorable actions in slamming his fellow Vietnam Vets, and painting the economy in a bad light.

[dawn53]

Democratic nominee John Kerry easily would beat Republican President George W. Bush if the presidential election was held now, political analyst Larry Sabato told members of the Business Council of Alabama Saturday.

What a numbskull!

The election isn't today.

Candidates gauge their campaign strategy based on the November date, not on an August date.

The fact that neither the GOP convention or the debates have taken place obviously should be considered.

If the primaries had been held before Dean had his "dream scream", he would have won. But they weren't, so Kerry holds the nomination.

[ken5050]

Good Monday morning to ya..relax..Bush has BOTH Clintons in his corner...Kerry doesn't have a chance..

[Dolphy]

Sabato said Bush also must deal with a mediocre economy and a sour mood among voters that sees the economic glass as half empty, not half full.

A sour mood? Then why were consumer confidence and retail sales up?

[shortstop]

I wonder if Sabato would be willing to bet his job as a political analyst on a Kerry victory? I'd love to ask him.

[goldstategop]

Sabato is engaging in wishful thinking. Its a little early to make a flat prediction Kerry's got it in the bag. He should wait til October before saying anything definite. Besides, there's still the GOP convention and no one knows at this point how big a bounce Bush will get. I think caution is deservedly in order here.

[PISANO]

Why are so many analysts saying that this race is already over?

I think many analysts are "projecting" their FEAR of a Leftist in the White House or their FERVENT DESIRE for a Leftist in the White House. The fundamentals are all in place for a major shift to the LEFT in this country. They may be reading TEA LEAVES but FEAR and HOPE are powerful emotions, difficult to hide.

Just one man's opinion!

[Liz]

Heheh.......best analysis I've heard so far.

[Grampa Dave]

Phil Dragoo makes this phoney baloney Cambodia adventure really easy to understand even for the pro Kerry Trolls on FR.

[olivia3boys]

Larry Sabato was one of my professors at Georgetown in 1992. He was an OK professor; he seems to have become more famous in recent years.