I love the analysis, "if the election were held now."
Uh, its not, so that is a ridiculous, meaningless statement. There are three months of campaigning to go. Both campaigns adjust to that REALITY.
Sabato is engaging in wishful thinking. Its a little early to make a flat prediction Kerry's got it in the bag. He should wait til October before saying anything definite. Besides, there's still the GOP convention and no one knows at this point how big a bounce Bush will get. I think caution is deservedly in order here.