32,000 Jobs Created in July (UE Rate Down at 5.5%)

CNBC | August 6, 2004

[RWR8189]

32,000 jobs were created in July. The unemployment rate down at 5.5%

Details to come...

ouch

[sphinx]

That being said, perception is reality, and if the TV and the Rats are screaming the end is near because of this very poor number.....then I do worry about the election.

As I have opined before, Bush will win handily among people who live in the real world. He will lose handily among people who live (i.e. have their primary frame of reference) in the tv world. How the electorate splits between those two groups is the big question.

The media people reject this kind of analysis and insist that their world more-or-less faithfully mirrors the real world. This of course is believed only by tv world people.

[fooman]

Oil would have to be over $80 to where it was in the 80s. Not that I dont support more domestic drilling and development of the Canada sands, which could be done for $13 a barrell..

On the jobs front, small business IS being undercounted. Think, you cant have the labor participation rate going UP, unemployment going and more people employed.

The 'plug' here the special sauce is counting big corporate jobs. I work in a well known us bank and I can tell that everything is outsourced.

[Jedi Jake]

Done some of that and more. I've contributed to the Bush campaign.

I still think Bush will win but for the first time, I am having serious doubts and if these numbers continue to dwindle, my doubts will grow.

[Dave S]

So you take the stance that the human spirit is made up of laziness and they will not persue their passions or they won't take the risks for greater rewards

Say what? Im saying the vast majority of the people in this country wont quit their day job to go into business for themselves unless given a push. I work with a lot of people who are self employed and they are all doing very well, but I dont know one that quit their corporate job to go into business. They all re-evaluated their lives and what they were doing when they were out of work. IF you were right that we were all just one big country of entreprenuers,then we would have to outsource all our work to have any employees do to it.

[rwfromkansas]

Look OWF,

Do you realize how many folks out there say "they say the economy is improving, but I don't see it where I am."

That is not a good thing, and we need several months of job gains....significant job gains, to alter this perception that many have.

[ohioWfan]

Address the oil issue in what manner?

I just heard him stress the importance (with great vigor, I might add) of energy independence yesterday..........i.e. address the 'oil issue.'

[fooman]

I told you before that the perception of new jobs was not a done deal.

The other thing I did not mention was under 400K of unemployement weekly reports should create lots of jobs-- we have been around 340K for months now.

[underbyte]

RELAX

My sister came to visit last weekend cause she needed a break from writing gov. proposals. and has never been this busy

My sister owns a company in Virginia That develops training programs. In the past she has done things like home schooling,Reader Rabbit, where in the world is Carmen San Diego? for AOL. Right now she is doing projects on No Child left behind, K12, Airport security and other Homeland defense projects.

This last Month she has been writing a proposal a day. Why?
She says it happens every election, the party in power holds back gov. contracts to time with the election(normally this cycle happens in sept) Tens of Billions of dollars are pumped into the economy are released to perform these contracts

She hires big and fires big, probably in the next 2-3 months she will double the size of her company from 75-150 people.

She was actually complaining that in some cases she has to hire 7-8 qualified people literally overnight. she also said this is double the normal proposal requests she gets due to increased dollars for homeland defense, in fact the highest she has seen it in any election cycle in the last 20 yrs.

Think about it. All the gov. agencies Homeland defense, Dept. of ED, CIA, NASA etc. Pump moneyinto the economy at one time it is worth a couple of hundred thousand jobs at least especially with the extra allotted for homeland defense.

[ohioWfan]

I live in Ohio, rw, OF COURSE I know that. Our unemployment is higher than the national average, and our local unemployment even higher, but there is steady improvement.

There will always be those who say it isn't enough, but Ohio's 5.8 figure is GOOD, and enough people know, and know that the cause of our ecomomic woes were due to blows to the country that we absorbed, and came out of in an incredibly short period of time.

This is NO cause for panic.

[Dave S]

go take a look at where most of those "back to school items" are made. then tell me how selling that stuff is going to employ americans.

Also, Wal-Mart and other retailers have been reporting weak sales of back to school items. Its already into the back to school season and they are doing poorly. And when Wal-Mart coughs the rest of the retailers are on a respirator.

[Go Gordon]

When 150k jobs need to be created just to employ those entering the workforce, a number of 32k is hardly anything to rally around. It means around 120k people didn't get a job this month that wanted one.

What a load of crap. You have to factor in the net job need after retirements. In addition, the jobs numbers don't take into consideration the self employed. Thats why the unemployment rate went down, even though on 32,000 new jobs were created.

[Dane]

- The public doesn't want to hear a sitting President after 4 years say he has a plan....but mean Democrats just won't pass it - (when the media will scream his Party owns both HOUSES)

That's what they are going to hear since it is the truth and notice that I didn't say Congress, I said the Senate.

You may go on with your doom and gloom orgy.

[pt17]

HIGHER OIL PRICES HAS SLOWED THIS ECONOMY !!!!!!!

It certainly hasn't helped and I don't think we've seen the major impact of it yet.

[Dave S]

How in the name of all that is holy does the government ascertain how many people WANT a JOB?

By definition, if someone entered the workforce, the assumption is they want a job. Duh!

Its not difficult to figure out how many people are entering the job market for the first time in any given month. Its called demographics. For example, all the people that are going to support the baby boomers in their retirement are already born and most of them are already working. From past history, the demographers know how many people are going to enter the workforce each month of the year. If you know population growth and keep a tab on trends like more working women and more people with two jobs, its fairly easy to estimate the number of people entering the job market.

[LongsforReagan]

We need more people like you. With the amount of wobblies on this thread I may have to change my tagline to Republicans= Girly Men.

[RockinRight]

August was going to be the month that the campaign took off and they became more aggressive.

I understand and agree with your concern. However, it is only August 6th so let's not throw in the towel yet.

[Dave S]

I think what's really happening is that these people are either joining the welfare rolls, or they are doing things like starting their own businesses. If there's more of the latter, that is good for the economy, not bad.

How is doing temporary work off the books good for the economy?

[TomEwall]

I've been saying for some time that the economy is what will decide the election, not iraq or WOT. The irony is that part of the reason energy prices are high is because the Democrats have refused to implement Bush's policies, so if Bush loses it could be due to the Democrats' policies, meaning the U.S. will be electing someone who's policies have contributed to the problems we're having, rather than keeping someone in office who would fix the problems.

[fooman]

yes, indeed.

[Wphile]

Well, at least the number is positive but it is incredibly disappointing. It surprises the heck out of me too because from where I am - in Spokane - it seems like the economy is going great guns. There is construction everywhere with just about every empty lot being developed. I figure if it looks that way here, it's probably like that in the rest of the country.

Maybe the summer months are slow hiring months and we will see a big increase in the Fall. We had a pretty lackluster 2nd quarter - with GDP at 3% - and the oil issue is getting to be more of a problem as the summer drags on. If the oil issue comes under control, then perhaps we will see the job growth.

I'd love to put a positive spin on this - and yes, the number is positive and we are adding jobs - but it's not great. June's job report was not well received, this is considerably lower than June's. Sheesh...I hope August is a blockbuster month!