Posted on 08/06/2004 5:30:25 AM PDT by RWR8189
As I have opined before, Bush will win handily among people who live in the real world. He will lose handily among people who live (i.e. have their primary frame of reference) in the tv world. How the electorate splits between those two groups is the big question.
The media people reject this kind of analysis and insist that their world more-or-less faithfully mirrors the real world. This of course is believed only by tv world people.
Oil would have to be over $80 to where it was in the 80s. Not that I dont support more domestic drilling and development of the Canada sands, which could be done for $13 a barrell..
On the jobs front, small business IS being undercounted. Think, you cant have the labor participation rate going UP, unemployment going and more people employed.
The 'plug' here the special sauce is counting big corporate jobs. I work in a well known us bank and I can tell that everything is outsourced.
Done some of that and more. I've contributed to the Bush campaign.
I still think Bush will win but for the first time, I am having serious doubts and if these numbers continue to dwindle, my doubts will grow.
Say what? Im saying the vast majority of the people in this country wont quit their day job to go into business for themselves unless given a push. I work with a lot of people who are self employed and they are all doing very well, but I dont know one that quit their corporate job to go into business. They all re-evaluated their lives and what they were doing when they were out of work. IF you were right that we were all just one big country of entreprenuers,then we would have to outsource all our work to have any employees do to it.
Look OWF,
Do you realize how many folks out there say "they say the economy is improving, but I don't see it where I am."
That is not a good thing, and we need several months of job gains....significant job gains, to alter this perception that many have.
I just heard him stress the importance (with great vigor, I might add) of energy independence yesterday..........i.e. address the 'oil issue.'
I told you before that the perception of new jobs was not a done deal.
The other thing I did not mention was under 400K of unemployement weekly reports should create lots of jobs-- we have been around 340K for months now.
There will always be those who say it isn't enough, but Ohio's 5.8 figure is GOOD, and enough people know, and know that the cause of our ecomomic woes were due to blows to the country that we absorbed, and came out of in an incredibly short period of time.
This is NO cause for panic.
Also, Wal-Mart and other retailers have been reporting weak sales of back to school items. Its already into the back to school season and they are doing poorly. And when Wal-Mart coughs the rest of the retailers are on a respirator.
What a load of crap. You have to factor in the net job need after retirements. In addition, the jobs numbers don't take into consideration the self employed. Thats why the unemployment rate went down, even though on 32,000 new jobs were created.
That's what they are going to hear since it is the truth and notice that I didn't say Congress, I said the Senate.
You may go on with your doom and gloom orgy.
By definition, if someone entered the workforce, the assumption is they want a job. Duh!
Its not difficult to figure out how many people are entering the job market for the first time in any given month. Its called demographics. For example, all the people that are going to support the baby boomers in their retirement are already born and most of them are already working. From past history, the demographers know how many people are going to enter the workforce each month of the year. If you know population growth and keep a tab on trends like more working women and more people with two jobs, its fairly easy to estimate the number of people entering the job market.
We need more people like you. With the amount of wobblies on this thread I may have to change my tagline to Republicans= Girly Men.
I understand and agree with your concern. However, it is only August 6th so let's not throw in the towel yet.
How is doing temporary work off the books good for the economy?
I've been saying for some time that the economy is what will decide the election, not iraq or WOT. The irony is that part of the reason energy prices are high is because the Democrats have refused to implement Bush's policies, so if Bush loses it could be due to the Democrats' policies, meaning the U.S. will be electing someone who's policies have contributed to the problems we're having, rather than keeping someone in office who would fix the problems.
yes, indeed.
Maybe the summer months are slow hiring months and we will see a big increase in the Fall. We had a pretty lackluster 2nd quarter - with GDP at 3% - and the oil issue is getting to be more of a problem as the summer drags on. If the oil issue comes under control, then perhaps we will see the job growth.
I'd love to put a positive spin on this - and yes, the number is positive and we are adding jobs - but it's not great. June's job report was not well received, this is considerably lower than June's. Sheesh...I hope August is a blockbuster month!
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