Grand Rapids proper leans Democrat and actually went to Gore in 2000 - but the rest of "Grand Rapids" and West Michigan lean far right. (For the purposes of inflating the various counts and tallies and totals for Grand Rapids, the city officials include much of the surrounding areas and not just the downtown area when having it listed in national rankings).
I was born and raised in GR, before I left town for college in Kalamzaoo and law school in Detroit. My family (mom, dad, brother and sister) still live in the Grand Rapids Metro area.
I'm hearing from them (and they're all staunch Bush supporters, mainly for social conservative reasons) that the area has been very hard hit by the recession that we've just come out of. The job scene is tough and slow to bounce back.
West Michigan can NOT be considered a slam dunk for Bush this year.