I was born and raised in GR, before I left town for college in Kalamzaoo and law school in Detroit. My family (mom, dad, brother and sister) still live in the Grand Rapids Metro area.
I'm hearing from them (and they're all staunch Bush supporters, mainly for social conservative reasons) that the area has been very hard hit by the recession that we've just come out of. The job scene is tough and slow to bounce back.
West Michigan can NOT be considered a slam dunk for Bush this year.
I went to both events (though I ducked out of Kerry's after standing in the heat for over an hour and half). First, the area has been hard hit driven by the slow down in the office furniture industry and a couple of large plant closings in the surrounding areas. But with all of that, most polls show the President trailing Kerry by only a couple of points, less than what he lost to Gore by in 2000. I consider that to be a great sign, most analysts say turnout will decide the outcome.
Secondly, the Kerry event was much better attended than Gore's rally in the same place in 2000. The President spoke to a capacity crowd as well and tickets were gone within a few hours so he would have easily drawn a lot more.
Finally, I talked with a lot of Kerry supporters Monday, most came up to me since I was standing near some Bush supporters. Not a single one of them had anything to say but they hated Bush and the war. So the real question is if we have more passion and courage to get out there and volunteer, work the phones, walk the streets with literature, etc. Personally I think it's the least we can do given what our troops sacrifice each day...I will not forgive myself if I don't do my part, however small, to keep their fate out of Kerry's hands.
You're definitely right there. Bush may even have a tough time getting the outlying areas of West Michgian (which usually vote straight-ticket Republican) given how heavily they are impacted by the manufacturing industry declines. The perception will be made worse by the fact that West Michigan is sort of insulated from the economic changes in the rest of the nation, and that the economic growth we're experiencing right now won't be felt for a while.