A long time ago, in a galaxy far away, this used to be known as the "Albanian Doublecross" for the terrorists from Albania who first used it, or so we were told in our counter-terror briefings in the army.
"they didn't wait three years to do *just* car bombings. they lose the global jihadi expectations game that way . . . "
Agreed, although I believe we have interdicted many potentially disasterous plots since. But this is a RLW (Real Live War) and they won't stop, ever. They would have planned for setbacks. All it will take is one spectacular strike on U.S. soil and they'll have enough Jihad recruits to make things real interesting.
"They would have planned for setbacks."
Agreed.
"All it will take is one spectacular strike on U.S. soil and they'll have enough Jihad recruits to make things real interesting."
True. That is a central motive (not just to terrorize the target but to "inspire" potential recruits).
But what constitutes "spectacular"? They set the bar pretty high with 9/11. And the verbal threats from top AQ leadership since 9/11 has been over the top.
Even a dozen simultaneous car/truck bombs successfully detonated would have difficulty surpassing the 3,000 dead on 9/11 to the extent needed to be considered "spectacular" and worthy of the global jihad they seek to lead.
They need something far more catastrophic than 9/11. And you don't get there with conventional explosives . . .but they might have other purposes (misdirection or diverting resources) that would help them get to that goal of a "spectacular" attack.
If I had to choose among the lesser of all the evils, I'd choose something conventional. And if I were a terrorist, I'd give us a threat we are expecting (or in the grand scheme of things "hoping" to see as opposed to WMD) and get us to focus on that. Fighting the last war (1993 WTC, 1995 OKC, 1998 Kenya&Tanzania - - Ghailani's hit)
Not to say this isn't real. It probably is. But this is not "it". Not by a long shot.
Hopefully, we disrupt it all and never find out what the "main act" is supposed to be.