Bush re-election below 50% on TradeSports.com for first time

TradeSports.com ^ | 7/24/2004 | TradeSports.com

[Grover_Cleveland]

As of the time of posting, the electronic market of tradesports.com predicts for the first time that President Bush will NOT be re-elected.

See the following links:

Here

Here -- click on the "politics" link on the left

Disclaimer: this is a live market and prices may have changed by the time you look at these links.

[arasina]

If Iowa and Tradesports are predicting a Bush loss in the fall, he will lose

I guess they didn't hear The Amazing Kreskin on Fox & Friends the other morning. No difference in my opinion. It's 94.3456% proven that polls and statistics can be manipulated. :o)

[sinkspur]

Do I have to be a cheerleading optimistic person who isn't watching the polls to be welcomed?

When Bush has a lead in several polls (as he does), I don't expect you to act as if his loss is a foregone conclusion.

I expect a small bounce for Kerry out of the convention, then Bush will unload for the five weeks before the GOP convention.

Kerry should be up 10-20 points, given some of the external circumstances.

That he isn't says Americans don't really want him.

[EGPWS]

Anyone else notice many of the doom-and-gloomers are newbies......

Naaaa...... ; )

[demlosers]

tradesports.com predicts for the first time that President Bush will NOT be re-elected

Based on LA Slime poll of PA?

Wait a few days - Bush will tilt back over 50%. Nov 2nd is a long ways away.

[EGPWS]

I expect a small bounce for Kerry out of the convention,...

Yep, just like Mondale got out of the political convention eulogy for Paul Wellstone.

[spokeshave]

Well John F'n "flip-flop fop" Kerry will get a bounce when Lance wins the TDF for the sixth time.

Voters will recall all those outstanding pics of John on his bike and compare with Lance.

[Asclepius]

If Iowa and Tradesports are predicting a Bush loss in the fall, he will lose ...

It's a betting market, goof-ball. Odds go up. Odds go down. It's a long time until November. Now go take a nap. Oh, and welcome to FR. Happy trolling etc.

[goldstategop]

Bush is no Ronald Reagan. But if the markets bet comes true, the story will be why he lost against someone as unlikeable and sleazy as John Kerry. And we had posters here slamming Joseph Farah for calling the election as far back as the winter. I mean the President should be winning this election by a cakewalk and he isn't. President Reagan's re-election was never in doubt.

[arasina]

The enormous group of people once known as The Silent Majority have chosen to be silent again in this year's presidential election. They are still around and they are BUSH voters. OTOH, Dims and Leftists are screechingly vocal and in-your-face. What sounds like victory to them is actually their party's death rattle.

[sinkspur]

We're in a war for our survival and you think Kerry should be up.

The press has hammered Bush relentlessly, on every front. The results in Iraq have been mixed, though getting better.

I'm surprised, frankly, that Bush is staying even, or isn't down by 10.

[EGPWS]

Bush should be up 10 points and was until last January.

Since poll reading has become "gospel" he isn't.

[tbpiper]

I think Bush will likely lose...

You either need to get off the tequila or take another stiff shot. Whatever you're doing is screwing your head up.

[goldstategop]

The problem is their base is more energized this time than ours. The election will basically turn on which side gets out its base voters to the polls. Right now, its advantage Kerry. The Democrats hate Bush and want to get rid of him.

[EGPWS]

Why would rich democrats manipulate these markets?

You just want to see the Internet stifled with information congestion don't you.

[JennysCool]

Anyone else notice many of the doom-and-gloomers are newbies......

Yup. Pretty pathetic that the Libs are so scared they feel the need to try to demoralize the opposition from within. It won't work. As Cheney said, the wheel has turned, and it is time for them to go.