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Posted on 07/09/2004 11:58:45 AM PDT by CondiArmy
ATLANTA - Six-term U.S. Rep. Mac Collins has surprised a lot of people in his bid for the Republican U.S. Senate nomination, but maybe not quite the way he intended.
With the campaign in its last 10 days, he is dead last in fund-raising among the three GOP candidates for the seat of retiring Sen. Zell Miller, and until his TV ads began airing this weekend, he had forfeited that medium to rivals Johnny Isakson and Herman Cain.
Collins insisted Friday he's "in good shape" and will peak exactly when he plans - July 20, election day.
But others aren't so sure.
"My sense is, things are not going well for that campaign," said University of Georgia political science professor Charles Bullock. "I wouldn't be surprised to see him finish third."
"I've been surprised at his low visibility," said Rusty Paul, a former chairman of the state Republican Party and Isakson supporter. "I think Mac is operating on the theory you can win races in Georgia still with grass roots campaigns ... but it's a much more difficult race to win."
Early on, the race looked to be a contest between two incumbent congressman - Collins, who has been in Washington since 1992, and Isakson, who won a special election in 1999 to replace Newt Gingrich and who had run two statewide races before.
Out of nowhere came Herman Cain, former CEO of Godfather's Pizza and political neophyte who dazzled audiences with the skills he honed as a motivational speaker. He is the first black to seek a statewide office in Georgia under the GOP banner since Reconstruction.
With the race now winding down, Isakson leads in fund-raising, Cain is second and Collins is third, and some think that's the way the race will end, with the only question whether Isakson and Cain will meet in a runoff.
Collins doesn't see it that way.
"We're running a very positive campaign that's far from being over or a flop or a dud," Collins said. "You'll see that July 20."
Paul, however, sees a campaign that just isn't catching any breaks.
"His failure to achieve any momentum is not because there's anything inherently wrong with Mac Collins, his philosophy or ideas. He just waited late to get into the race, doesn't have the resources and he assumed he would inherit the right flank. But every day he's had to compete with Herman Cain for the right flank and he hasn't been able to nail that down."
The political arm of the anti-abortion group Georgia Right to Life gave an equal endorsement to Collins and Cain, who allow only one exception for abortion - to preserve the life of the mother. Isakson would also allow exceptions for rape and incest, a position unacceptable to that group.
In addition, Collins' campaign has experienced an unusual amount of staff turnover. He's now operating with his fourth campaign manager and his second press secretary, both brought down from his Washington staff.
"It's generally not thought to be a good thing to have turmoil on your staff," said political scientist Bullock.
"I wouldn't go so far to say it was 'turmoil,'" said Dan Kidder, the campaign's new press secretary. "I would say 'creative differences.'"
He explained: "U.S. Rep. Collins is not one who will be managed. He's been a successful businessman, a very successful leader in Congress ... the only person who's going to manage Mac Collins is Mac Collins."
All that aside, Kidder said Collins has quietly assembled a huge grass roots network that will take the state by surprise on July 20. "Mac Collins is an expert on grass roots campaigning ... people have underestimated him before."
Paul said Gov. Sonny Perdue's victory two years ago shows it is possible to win a statewide campaign with a grass roots campaign, "but everything has to go right."
And one important factor is missing now that helped lift Perdue to victory, Paul said.
"Two years ago you had a very unpopular incumbent. There was a lot of pent-up anger and frustration. In this case, it doesn't exist."
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Go Herman Go! Pray for Herman Cain!
Click Here for the Herman Cain for US Senate Web Site
This is so inside baseball for me (Ohio).
Who do we like? Cain?
Okay!
Go, Cain, Go!
Is he really conservative and on television sometimes?
Was he a Congressman?
I think I have seen him, then.
Go, Cain, Go!
I like your style!
Back when the clinton administration was pushing nationalized health care Herman Cain showed up at one of bill clintons townhall meetings and absolutely destroyed clinton in the ensuing debate. It was priceless. I wish I had a tape of it. Come to think about it they didn't have many more townhall meetings after that.
That was the last one if I recall correctly...and, it was priceless! The letter that Cain wrote to Clinton afterwards totally destroyed Clinton's "live" responses...
I remember at the end of the exchange clinton was reduced to trying to "shine on" Mr. Cain saying "hey I'd still buy your pizza if it cost $2 more a pizza. Mr.Cain didn't stop for a second, he kept hammering away.
If he did I missed it. I was working a real job at the time.
I assume Cain wouldn't do well in these rural down-state regions because of his race? Aren't the Dems going to nominate Majette, a black woman?
Herman Cain is a black Republican businessman from Atlanta who used to own Godfathers Pizza. He was also the president of... some other stuff which I forgot. He is now a motivational speaker.
He put Clinton in his place at a 1994 town hall meeting over nationalized healthcare and later in a letter published in the Wall Street Journal. In 1996 he was an advisor to Jack Kemp and Steve Forbes in 2000. He was one of the original proponents of the "Fair Tax Plan". (abolish income tax and replace with national sales tax)
Now he is running for the U.S. Senate in the Georgia Republican Primary.(July 20) He started with little name recognition, (his two republican opponents are congressmen) but has battled into second place, behind a moderate, coutry club republican.(Johnny Isakson) The moderate has more name recognition and more money (and is white) but Cain is more in line with the Georgia voter, has much more charisma, and is working his butt off. (2-4 speaking engagements per day since Febuary, will campaign in 52 counties in 8 days right before election).
And yes, he would be an instant media magnet in the Senate.
Sorry, I went a little long but Cain inspires hard work. I hope this helps.
Keith
Ooops, everyone beat me to the answer.
Yes, the Dums will nominate a black woman.
I don't know about Cain's chances in south GA. However, I don't think they are as bad as their stereotype. I know in middle GA Cain is very popular.
You are correct. He would also go a long way at dubunking the myth of the racist Republicans. (Black Republican elected from Georgia)
Herman Cain is extremely popular with WHITE voters in south Georgia. I don't think his race would enter into the race at all except for the Isakson crowd trying to imply that south Georgians are still racists. They are no more so than most people in most parts of the country.
I was recently in south Georgia attending a Church service where the congregation was pretty evenly divided between blacks and whites. Cain has an office in Valdosta and reports show more support than he is given credit for. You can't get much farther south in Georgia than Valdosta.
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