For the most part I agree.
There is always the mathematical possibility that the tribes, valuing their previous autonomous freedoms, will recognize that certain minimum performance is the price of that freedom and embrace change.
They have not been quick to do this, and I suspect they will lose those freedoms forever.
Fully purging the lawless regions on both side of the border may take as long as several generations.
I can't think of a better way to start than establishing large military bases at Wana, Miram Shah, Parachinar, Khost, and Orgun. The swamp that has been the porous border region will be drained, and the alligators encouraged find other accomodations.
But first, there's a particularly big nest that requires special attention.
Fully purging the lawless regions on both side of the border may take as long as several generations
At least, assuming there is not a change of government in Islamabad. Remember Musharraf been attacked twice(?) so far this year, and there are plenty of people that would love to see his head on a pike.