Missile kills Pakistan tribal head

ISLAMABAD (CNN) -- A tribal leader accused of harboring Al Qaeda militants in Pakistan's western border region was killed Thursday night in a targeted missile strike, according to Pakistan intelligence sources. The Associated Press quoted an army spokesman Friday as identifying the tribal leader as Nek Mohammed, a former Taliban fighter.

He was killed late Thursday at the home of another tribal chief, the spokesman said.

"We were tracking him down and he was killed last night by our hand," Maj. Gen. Shaukat Sultan told The Associated Press.

Various ramblings here:

I have seen other recent reports of US troops in Pakistan, but so far, all of them have either sourced back to Haji Muhammad Omar, or else refer to US intel/SOF types that Pakistan has admitted were in country as advisers all along.

Keeping an eye peeled for other root sources on this.

On possible connections between the Pak advances towards the Shawal/Shakai, and AQ types fleeing, into either Afghanistan or Gujrat...

It has been reported that Ghailani was in Shakai before he came to Gujrat and that he was forced out of that region by the Pak advances, but we don't have a good timeframe for when this happened. All we really have towards a timeframe is that Khan or Aruchi was tasked to secure travel arrangements for Ghailani before their capture on July 12-13.

It has been reported that Farida Ahmed (ripped passport lady) left South Africa on July 8th, and that the two other South Africans, Zoubair Ismail and Feroze Abubakar Ganchi, arrived in Pakistan in "early July". If we assume they all left SA at the same time, then clearly Ahmed had some layovers, in Dubai, in UAE, or London, even allowing for time to hook up with handlers in Mexico for help getting across the border.

It has been reported that Mohammed Nareem Noor Khan was captured on July 13th after intercepted sat-phone calls revealed he was helping Ghailani plan to escape from Pakistan.

Khan then, was calling around to set up travel arrangements for Ghailani at about the same time that Ahmed, Ismail and Ganchi left South Africa, and Ghailani had already been forced out of the Shawal pocket prior to this time. It has been reported that Ahmed had made roughly 250 entries to the United States.

One possible explanation that ties this together would have Ahmed as a courier, called to SA to pick up cash and communiques to take back to the States shortly after Ghailani arrived in Gujrat. That the South Africans left school after their meeting with Ahmed and met Ghailani in Pakistan seems to support this, if Ghailani was juggling operations command duties along with having to move his base of operations.

Given the flow of cash into the US, it seems safe to assume that the operations here were either in the planning stages or pre-execution stages, otherwise the money would flow the other way. The 'value" of this data is that it tells us that whatever Ghailani was planning for the US, it was not a failed operation as of Juky 8, and probably not as of July 19 when Ahmed was captured.

No more credibility can be assigned to this scenario than sheer speculation, however, since there is little corroboration, even in the form of additional circumstantial evidence. It is merely one way to string known events together that doesn't produce glaring contradictions, a possibility, no more.

In a different direction, Ghailani escapes the Shawal area due to pressure from the Pak Army, Aruchi(?) and Khan are arrested on July 12th and 13th, Ahmed, in an apparantly unrelated arrest (watch list, named by Khan or Aruchi?) is nabbed on the 19th, Ghailani and 13 others on the 25th, the terrorists stage an attack on the Zhawar border post on the 25th, using about double the normal number of AQ troops (compared to other recent border post raids), and on August 3rd, the Pak government announces success in Sangtoi and Mantoi.

One obvious scenario immediately comes to mind, that the AQ forces in Santoi and Mantoi, acting on both offense and defense, were providing covering/diversionary fires for Ghailani's escape. Once he is arrested in Gujrat, there's no need for more of them to die, so they run for the Afghan border.

I have two major problems with this. One it tends to presuppose that the 50 to 70 killed at the border comprised all of the AQ troops in the entire Shawal Valley, otherwise fighters retiring from Sangtoi and Mantoi would have been absorbed at another base in the area, long before reaching the border.

The numbers we have received so far indicate 400 to 600 enemy there, with 100 killed in the first Wana-Kaloosha operation, 50 to 80 killed in the Shakai Valley operations, leaving 250 to 450, not 50 to 70 which is the top end estimate of enemy dead for the attack at Zhawar.

Two, rocket and IED attacks on Wana and Razmak have continued since the battle at Zhawar. Under the above scenario, a mass exodus has left nothing behind to defend, and highly indiscriminate sapper/harrassment raids would no longer make sense.

A better overall view would be that effective command and control still exists in the Shawal. That Ghailani was ordered out due to his involvement in pending terrorist operations, and that the raid at Zhawar was a probe or diversion ordered by those still in the Shawal.

I like this at several levels.

It takes care of the numbers problem. (Personally, I'm guessing 1500 to 3000 bad guys in the Shawal, before the first Kaloosha attacks, with close to that number remaining. It makes no sense to order IED and rocket attacks ranging from NE of Razmak all the way to Azam Warzak, not to mention the stiff resistance put up in Mantoi and Santoi simply to screen the high passes into the Shawal, for the tiny outpost that 200 or less bad guys would represent.)

It explains the continued rocket and IED attacks at Razmak and Wana, and it explains the stiff resistance even after Ghailani left the region.

Yet again, only speculation, but I think we can safely assume that Ghailani was not the Commander in Chief of the forces in the Shawal/Shakai area. Specualtion or not, if we subscribe to this scenario, then the disparity in numbers 250 to 450 remaining versus 50 to 70 killed at Zhawar, forces us to ask, "diversion for what?"

If the harrassment attacks in the North and South Waziristan regions dwindle, (and direct action ceases altogether) then we may not know where a mass exodus went, but we will know approximately when it took place.

On a totally different note, it is a certain shame that we can't track the slugs we put into dead and wounded bad guys.

This implies that you think that there is a central command for AQ. I think that was true a few years ago, but today it seems that "the base" is more or less scattered and the young "students" from the Taliban time has started their own enterprises, but with the same business idea as ObL.

They are today very concerned about the risk for infiltration and are reluctant to add new recruits. A new guy has to, like in the mob, prove his loyalty. This is very risky for them and the main reason that they are recruiting family and clan members(like the mob)

I we can knock down all training camps and deprive them of the support from clan members in the Pashtu area, it is only a matter of time until AQ is finished in Pakistan and Afghanistan. However, small groups (compare the N19 in Greece) will continue to be a source of problem until they will fade out.

Money and other resources to the border area will in time replace the glorious memory of the Taliban. The tribes will not say no to health care (Malaria is a problem in this area), running hot and cold water and the "bread and entertainment" that a modern world can offer. Furthermore they are illiterate and many of them knows less about Islam than the lurkers of this thread. Send in teachers with moderate views of Sunni Islam and we will see results in 10-15 years time.

The idolization of ObL in the cities is just fashion like the fashion during the 70s for Che Guevara etc. It will fade in a couple of years.

Back to your post: Is it really the case that Ahmed had made roughly 250 entries to the United States? If it is correct it indicates that they are lacking loyal couriers and are risking to be compromised. The conclusion is that it is a very small group.

Another brief by Syed:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/FH05Df02.html
South Asia

Musharraf steps back from the US
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - "Pakistan is not sending its troops to Iraq." So reads the most recent handout from the Pakistani Foreign Office and the
clearest signal yet that President General Pervez Musharraf is finally attempting to distance himself from the United States' sphere of influence, even if only for domestic expediency.

Just days ago Islamabad refused to make such a categorical statement, as demanded by hostage-takers in Iraq holding two Pakistani contract workers. The two men were subsequently beheaded.

Interim Prime Minister Chaudhary Shujaat Hussain even paid a visit to Saudi Arabia, where he announced that the countries were developing a consensus on sending Pakistani troops to Iraq. Earlier, Saudi Arabia had proposed the formation of an all-Muslim force to be sent to Iraq to help with security. Pakistan was to be a key part of this.

And the Pakistani parliament was unable to come up with a resolution calling for troops not to be dispatched to Iraq. Similarly, when US Central Command commander General John Abizaid visited Islamabad last week, apart from pressing Musharraf to deliver "high-value" foreign suspects, he reiterated the US desire that Pakistan send troops to Iraq. Pakistan said it would do this "when the time is right".

For long caught between extremist Islamists on the one hand and US pressures on the other, Musharraf appears now to be distancing himself from Washington, as least as far as troops are concerned. He is still handing over al-Qaeda suspects on a regular basis.

Asia Times Online has been told by security contacts that well before Abizaid's visit, Hussain met with leaders of the influential grouping of six religious-political parties, the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal, and asked them to raise a voice against sending the army into Iraq and to hold protest rallies all over the country to "show to US the extreme feeling of dissent" in the country.

An observer from Karachi who was close to Musharraf when he was a major-general and posted as director general of military operations at General Headquarters, Rawalpindi, commented, "Musharraf is susceptible to pressures. He does not have the ability to respond to pressures immediately, and always takes some time before he fights back against the pressures, and only when he is sure that he has the proper support."

Mounting pressures

Islamic militants continue their insurgency in the South and North Waziristan tribal areas, where, under pressure from Washington, the army has been sent to track down foreign militants. The troops are reportedly under daily rocket and missile attacks, as well as assaults from remote-controlled bombs.

Renewed insurgency in southwestern Balochistan province, where anti-Pakistan Baloch tribals, who had been courted by the US to counteract the Taliban, have now regrouped and are inflicting serious casualties on Pakistani troops.

The designation of pro-US banker and present Finance Minister Shaukat Aziz as the next premier, subject to him winning a by-election for the Lower House, has alarmed many as he has no political constituency. This has upset traditional feudal families who have relations in the army and who fear they will lose their political clout.

These developments have caused recent tit-for-tat reactions:

Major-General Ayaz Khattak, in charge of operations in South Waziristan, escaped death in a suicide attack on his office. After the incident, when authorities were inspecting the site, another bomb was detonated by remote control, killing an Intelligence Bureau officer.

Premier-designate Aziz survived a suicide attack in which 11 others were killed.

Feedback from the latest langer gathering. (Langer means feast. The army has traditionally staged feasts for officers, soldiers and their families. They hold frank discussions, and military intelligence then compiles a special report on the chit-chat, which is presented to all corps commanders and the chief of army staff. The mood was completely against sending troops to Iraq.)

In addition, Pakistan's elite intelligence agencies, including Military Intelligence and Inter-Services Intelligence, have repeatedly warned Musharraf about adverse developments in the army, that is, against the leadership. Musharraf has even repeated this in public, notably in connection with an assassination attempt on his life in which army personnel have been implicated.

Intelligence also points to stepped-up attacks by al-Qaeda and its sympathizers, including against prominent federal cabinet members.

Deadlines loom
Two of the most important dates since Musharraf assumed power in a bloodless coup in October 1999 are close. By October 7 he must replace two full generals who are due to retire, and by the end of the year he must choose between either the presidency or chief of army staff, the two positions he now holds.

With these two events in mind, Musharraf has opted to give himself breathing space and take some of the heat out of the political climate by ending debate on sending troops to Iraq, and waiting until he has his new generals in place as they are widely expected to be promoted on the basis of loyalty to Musharraf rather than on seniority. This will cause disaffected - passed-over - officers to resign, further strengthening the general's grip.

These visits indicates that we will see something big soon:
http://www.paktribune.com/news/index.php?id=72968

Fighters, forces trade heavy artillery in S Waziristan

Wednesday August 04, 2004 (0320 PST)

WANA, August 05 (Online): Suspected militants and military troops on early Wednesday exchanged heavy artillery in various parts of Southern Waziristan and massive causalities have been feared due to the continuing intense fighting.

In Shakai, suspected militants fired volley of rockets at the military installations. The troops deployed at Piyarzah fort retaliated the assault with heavy artillery. Fighting lasted for almost one hour. However, no damage to property or causality was reported.

Also, the Zalai fort, some 20 kilometers from Wana, came under heavy rockets attack by the militants.

Seven rockets were fired at the fort, of which two landed inside the fort premises. Five others failed to hit the target and landed at an abandoned place near the fort.

Army troops struck back at the fighters, who exchanged heavy artillery with the forces for almost next 50 minutes. Two military personnel were critically injured in the fight.

In another incident, some unknown assailants fired rockets at military camps at Zam Chana, some 25 kilometers from Wana, from western mountains.

Pakistan Army and attackers exchanged heavy fires for almost two hours. The fighting claimed massive killings on both sides but this could not be confirmed by independent sources.

Gunship helicopters were on the patrol after the fighting.

Meanwhile, people continued to suffer due to re-imposition of economic blockade in Wana on Wednesday as well.

An ailing woman belonging to Mastikhel tribe died on her way to hospital in Kiyarzah after all the roads leading to Wana were blocked by the local administration because of economic sanctions.

Vice chief of Army staff visits Wana

Vice Chief of Army Staff, General Muhammad Yousaf Khan visited Wana and other tribal areas in Waziristan on Wednesday, where he met officers and men of various units.

Upon arrival at Zeri Noor Camp he was received by Corps Commander Lieutenant General Safdar Hussain and General Officer Commanding Major General Niaz Muhammad Khan Khattak.

Vice Chief of Army Staff was given a detailed briefing on prevailing situation in the area and ongoing operations therein. The briefing also included various development works being undertaken by the Army towards uplift of the Waziristan Agency.

General Muhammad Yousaf appreciated the efforts of Army and said that people residing in FATA are patriotic Pakistanis and Army will do its utmost to improve their living conditions.

Referring to ongoing operations against foreign militant, he reiterated the Army's resolve to rid the country of all foreign terrorists.

Thereafter the Vice Chief of Army Staff visited Shikai Valley, Santoi, Mantoi, Khamrang, Angoor Adda and Alwara Mandi. He met the troops of various units deployed in these areas.

He lauded their perseverance and efforts both in development works and operations and urged them to continue their efforts with full commitment.

Piazha, source of counter battery artillery fire used to suppress the enemy rockets fired against friendlies in the Shakai Valley, is located 1.2 miles southeast of Tauda China Algad, located on this map:

http://host1.in-motion.net/~jefft/tech/Mapping/afghanistan/taudachina.jpg

Zam China, site of other enemy rocket attacks, is half a mile west of Ezhebe Algad on this map:

http://host1.in-motion.net/~jefft/tech/Mapping/afghanistan/Razmak.jpg

Zalai, site of yet additional enemy rocket attacks, is located 1 mile south of Zilli Khel on this map:

http://host1.in-motion.net/~jefft/tech/Mapping/afghanistan/Mangratay.jpg

Khamrang is also located on this map, co-incident with Dre Narai.

Angoor Adda is also located on this map, on the Pakistan side of the border, within 2 miles and visual range of Shkin.

All other locations mentioned have been previously discussed and don't need repeating, with the exception of Zeri Noor and Alwara Mandi, which I have been unable to locate, using a variety of sources.

This doesn't seem to be any......major development, just some minor general visiting other minor generals, showing off their stars and......dotting i's and crossing t's.

For unknown reasons the enemy does seem to be getting a bit rambunctious, but it's probably nothing significant.

Nothing to see here, people, please move along.

Up your ante.
http://www.dawn.com/2004/08/05/top4.htm

Troops begin advance towards Shawal area

By Dawn Report

PESHAWAR/WANA, Aug 4: After securing several locations in the South Waziristan tribal region, army troops, backed by helicopter gunships, have started advancing towards mountainous region of Shawal on Wednesday.

Senior officials in Peshawar said that after clearing Shakai and other adjacent areas, security forces had been ordered to concentrate on Shawal region. An official said that the government had decided to conduct 'snap raids' in South Waziristan with active assistance of military authorities to catch suspected militants.

The government estimated presence of 500 to 600 militants of different nationalities in South Waziristan as only few of them have been arrested. "Authorities in Wana have already been conveyed the new instructions and further steps in this regard may be taken soon to establish writ of the government there," said the official.

Residents in the Santoi valley told Dawn that hundreds of regular and paramilitary troops were seen heading towards forest-covered Shawal area, believed to be a sanctuary of foreign militants.

The security forces started fresh offensive after flushing out militants from the troubled Santoi, Mantoi and Khamrang valleys near the border with Afghanistan. "The forces have secured Serghashai, the nearest point to Shawal region," a resident told Dawn on phone.

The high-altitude Shawal mountainous region demarcates South and North Waziristan regions while its parts also lie across the Afghan border. Maj-Gen Shoukat Sultan, the ISPR director general, when approached, denied any fresh movement by the security forces in the troubled region.

"Absolutely, there is no fresh movement of troops in the area," the army spokesman said. Residents said that the security forces, backed by artillery and helicopter gunships, made rapid advance towards Shawal early in the morning and secured the Serghashai hilltop.

They said that security forces were shelling high peaks as gunships flew overhead. They said that militants had shown no reaction to the fresh advance by the security forces. Army helicopters were also hovering over Wana, the regional headquarters, throughout the day.

Reports said that one soldier was wounded when a shell slammed near the army outpost in Santoi valley. The wounded soldier was shifted to the Brigade Headquarters. Militants also fired rockets on Zalay Fort housing paramilitary forces in Azam Warsak area, but caused no damage.

http://www.dawn.com/2004/08/05/top4.htm

Troops begin advance towards Shawal area

By Dawn Report

PESHAWAR/WANA, Aug 4: After securing several locations in the South Waziristan tribal region, army troops, backed by helicopter gunships, have started
advancing towards mountainous region of Shawal on Wednesday.

Senior officials in Peshawar said that after clearing Shakai and other adjacent areas, security forces had been ordered to concentrate on Shawal region. An official
said that the government had decided to conduct 'snap raids' in South Waziristan with active assistance of military authorities to catch suspected militants.

The government estimated presence of 500 to 600 militants of different nationalities in South Waziristan as only few of them have been arrested. "Authorities in Wana
have already been conveyed the new instructions and further steps in this regard may be taken soon to establish writ of the government there," said the official.

Residents in the Santoi valley told Dawn that hundreds of regular and paramilitary troops were seen heading towards forest-covered Shawal area, believed to be a
sanctuary of foreign militants.

The security forces started fresh offensive after flushing out militants from the troubled Santoi, Mantoi and Khamrang valleys near the border with Afghanistan. "The
forces have secured Serghashai (possibly 'Zer Khizhai', located on the SW quadrant map) the nearest point to Shawal region," a resident told Dawn on phone.

The high-altitude Shawal mountainous region demarcates South and North Waziristan regions while its parts also lie across the Afghan border. Maj-Gen Shoukat
Sultan, the ISPR director general, when approached, denied any fresh movement by the security forces in the troubled region.

"Absolutely, there is no fresh movement of troops in the area," the army spokesman said. Residents said that the security forces, backed by artillery and helicopter
gunships, made rapid advance towards Shawal early in the morning and secured the Serghashai hilltop.

They said that security forces were shelling high peaks as gunships flew overhead. They said that militants had shown no reaction to the fresh advance by the security
forces. Army helicopters were also hovering over Wana, the regional headquarters, throughout the day.

Reports said that one soldier was wounded when a shell slammed near the army outpost in Santoi valley. The wounded soldier was shifted to the Brigade
Headquarters. Militants also fired rockets on Zalay Fort housing paramilitary forces in Azam Warsak area, but caused no damage.

http://www.observerindia.com/cps/from_pak/news.htm
90 persons suspected killed in US raids

Reports said US troops killed 90 al-Qaida—Taliban members in a span of
five hours in operations along the Pak-Afghan border on August 3. Local
commander Khayal Shirazi told news persons that US troops were using
Tank Busters, B-52 and Thunder Aircraft in the raids. Reports added that
Pakistani commanders who reached the site of the operations spotted at
least 40 scattered dead bodies in the mountainous area.
(Source: Daily Pakistan )

http://www.dawn.com/2004/08/05/welcome.htm

US embassy in New Delhi to be partly closed due to security concerns: WASHINGTON, Aug 05: The visa and immigration sections at the United States embassy in India's
capital will be closed today due to security concerns, an embassy statement said. (APP/AFP) (Posted @ 09:30 PST)

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_5-8-2004_pg7_41

WASHINGTON: The United States on Tuesday put its citizens in Uzbekistan on alert for more terrorist attacks after a series of suicide bombings late last week targeted the US and Israeli embassies.

Although we have no information to suggest that additional attacks will occur, the possibility cannot be discounted at this time,” the State Department said in a travel warning.

Because of these attacks, we advise all American citizens to be on the highest alert for their safety and security. We also suggest that Americans avoid large crowds and public places where Westerners generally congregate in large numbers.” Uzbekistan became a key ally of the United States after the September 11, 2001 attacks, opening up its main military base to US troops fighting in Afghanistan.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_5-8-2004_pg7_4

WASHINGTON: Al Qaeda operatives in Pakistan contacted at least six people in the United States and at least one of the contacts was in recent months, CNN on Wednesday quoted US intelligence sources as saying.

The network said the sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, claimed to have proof of communications between Al Qaeda and contacts in the United States.

It also quoted two sources in the US government, also unnamed, as saying intelligence gathered in Pakistan had furnished proof that suspected Al Qaeda operatives had contacted at least one person and possibly more in the United States in the course of recent months.

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