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Today: May 24, 2004 at 15:31:59 PDT
WASHINGTON (AP) - In the months before the invasion of Iraq, some senior faculty members at the Army War College predicted several of the problems the Bush administration is facing more than a year into the occupation.
A paper, "Reconstructing Iraq: Insights, Challenges, and Missions for Military Forces in a Post-Conflict Scenario," was published in February 2003, written by Conrad C. Crane and Andrew Terrill for the college's Strategic Studies Institute.
Parts of it seem prescient, suggesting that any U.S. occupation would face increasing resistance as time passed. The authors suggested the occupation would have roughly a year of goodwill before resentment mounted. The U.S.-led invasion began in March 2003.
"After the first year, the possibility of a serious uprising may increase should severe disillusionment set in and Iraqis begin to draw parallels between U.S. actions and historical examples of Western imperialism," the authors wrote.
The paper also predicted U.S. forces would face suicide bombings and resistance tactics aimed at eroding public support for the occupation.
"Any expansion of terrorism or guerrilla activity against U.S. troops in Iraq will undoubtedly require a forceful American response. Such U.S actions could involve a dramatic escalation in the numbers of arrests, interrogations, and detentions of local Iraqis. While such actions do improve security and force protection, they seldom win friends among the local citizenry. Individuals alienated from the U.S. occupation could well have their hostility deepened and increased by these acts," the paper warned.
The dangers in Iraq are magnified by the fact that most Americans have little understanding of the society there, the report said.
One piece of advice from the authors was not followed, when occupation forces disbanded the Iraqi regular army.
"To tear apart the army in the war's aftermath could lead to the destruction of one of the only forces for unity within the society," the report said. "Breaking up large elements of the army also raises the possibility that demobilized soldiers could affiliate with ethnic or tribal militias."
With the exception of disbanding the Army, the U.S. government generally seems to be following the reconstruction strategy described in the paper, rebuilding infrastructure and setting up police forces.
"The possibility of the United States winning the war and losing the peace in Iraq is real and serious," it warned. "Rehabilitating Iraq will consequently be an important challenge that threatens to consume huge amounts of resources without guaranteed results."
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On the Net:
http://www.carlisle.army.mil/ssi/pubs/2003/reconirq/reconirq.htm
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Conrad Crane was in the first row tonight, and was very enthusiastic about Bush and his speech. Almost would not let go of his hands when he was shaking them, and clapping as loud and long as anyone.
I have known Crane for many, many years. I find his reports very accurate. But he does believe the administration is by and large doing the right things with the exception of a couple of early mistakes. Of course, the press will take his commnets on those issues and twist it to make it sound like he is anti-Bush. He clearly is not!
Conrad Crane was in the first row tonight, and was very enthusiastic about Bush and his speech. Almost would not let go of his hands when he was shaking them, and clapping as loud and long as anyone.
I have known Crane for many, many years. I find his reports very accurate. But he does believe the administration is by and large doing the right things with the exception of a couple of early mistakes. Of course, the press will take his commnets on those issues and twist it to make it sound like he is anti-Bush. He clearly is not!