Excellent post.
I think you are dead on target. We have collected a large amount of information, but we havent collated it correctly to attempt any predictions of the enemies plans and strategy.
After 35,000 plus posts on this board, I have noticed several trends in Al Qaeda thinking that come right out of the woodwork and leap at you.
AL QAEDA
1) Al Qaeda is not a simple terrorist organization. It is an umbrella organization of Pan-Arab Islamic nationalists who wish to achieve world conquest and domination in the name of Islam.
a) Al Qaeda ideals are heavily rooted in Islamic eschatology. They believe they are the army that supports the rise of the Imam Al Mahdi, an Islamic messianic figure, who will conquer the world and subject it to Islamic rule
(called the Umma if it is a worldwide rule, or the caliphate if it is regional in scope. )
2) Al Qaeda fights this war with differing tactics in different theaters.
a) low intensity guerilla warfare in the United States
and
b)medium intensity guerilla warfare or open warfare in overseas theaters of operation where there are recruiting pools available to them and manpower is not as much of an issue as it is here in the United States. They have historically lost in open warfare against United States military forces in a huge way.
3) Al Qaeda developed the capability to use terrorism for political destabilization in Spain and combined this attack with propaganda as a projection of psychological warfare.
Al Qaeda has historically combined the two under the guise of a religious mandate so their atrocites are "justified" to potential recruits and sympathetic political movements, but it achieved effectiveness in the Spanish bombings when it affected Spanish government policies and elections.
UNITED STATES
Al Qaeda has infiltrated personnel and probably supplies and equipment as well into CONUS. They have developed logistics, command and control, communications, Elint, Sigint, operations, and financial infrastructures that are hidden from sight, often in plain view.
Al Qaeda has heavily recruited from the American prison population.
Al Qaeda has expressed a desire to strike the United States, and has successfuly done so on many occasions.
AL QAEDA STRATEGY
1) The removal of United States influence in the Middle East
2) The eventual conquest and occupation of the United States and submission of the US to Islam
3) The financial collapse of the United States
4) The defeat of US Forces overseas and decapitation of US Command and Control capabilities
5) Assassination of key US figures
6) Conquest of Israel and splitting the historical US-Israel alliance, de-legitimization of Israel as a state through propaganda and destabilization.
Any other ideas folks?
Well done. Thanks.
U.S. Cities with Largest Jewish Population
1,750,000 New York City
535,000 Miami
490,000 Los Angeles
254,000 Philadelphia
248,000 Chicago
210,000 San Francisco
208,000 Boston
165,000 Washington D.C.
Your #3840 post is an excellent synopsis. Wish we could have it printed full page in every newspaper tomorrow!
I believe you are correct that we can attempt to connect the dots, but, without further information we are unable to complete the connection.
I also believe it is difficult for westerners to connect the dots with tracking down terrorists because the psychological makeup is so different. The culture, upbringing, everything about the two (western culture and middle eastern culture) is so different it's like comparing apples and oranges. We need to learn to think like them in order to successfully track them.
Add a:
2) c) for electronic warfare
AQ seems to have allies too. ie., I see NK, Russia and factions of EU involved. Maybe China?
Are they supporting for financial gain? Or do they have a stake in our demise.