I have talked to a Chinese friend at work...he says that China has been threatening Taiwan every election for decades...
True.
And most Chinese on Taiwan are 'confident' that Beijing will not invade 'because they want all our wealth.'
Taiwanese are exceedingly naive on that score.
Beijing will invade for pride alone if it comes down to that. They would even obliterate all the citizens with a neutron bomb or 20 or however many, if they decided that was their preference.
Beijing is HEAVILY into personal PRIDE, EGOS, CONTROL FREAK STUFF and NATIONAL PRIDE. And, they are more than a little paranoid and territorial/POSSESSIVE about the western Pacific being THEIR TURF.
I take my beloved Taiwanese friend's confidence with a very small grain of salt. Beijing has been doing a LOT more than threatening in recent years. They have been building up their capability to take Taiwan at a break neck speed.
I know Poohbah dismisses the possibility wholesale. And, he's much more militarily aware than I am in a lot of ways. Nevertheless, I still would put my money on Beijing invading before 2012 and probably before 2006 is out.
And that's not even considering all the dreams and visions a long list of people around the world have had.
A close Chinese friend should be home to the USA from a Mainland visit soon. Will see if he has any change in his feelings about it.
Yep.