Threat Matrix: Daily Terror Threat

To: Rushmore Rocks

It's my screen name. My friends dubbed me with it when I got my first computer. It's because I never answer the telephone, I just let it ring. :)

3,801 posted on 05/27/2004 3:00:30 PM PDT by Letitring

To: British chick; All; Calpernia

Thank you for posting the message.

If one does a google search for:

Samir, the Jihad Falcon is ready

This will show that Samir Jerez is an Israeli

A Link for President Bush article.

Falcon is a plane.

Falcon Machinery Co.

Real Estate via "Falcon Management Group.

For those who don't get the same results as I with the searches at Google, keep in mind that I simply type in the words, I don't do any of the advanced searches or fancy stuff that many are capable of doing.

I know Google will not use some of my words as "the", but figure that they will kick them out, so go on with the entire phrase or asking a question.

LOL, yes, granny just set the whole Internet back to the dark ages.......But I do find strange things that are often not on the advanced searches.

Adding 1425 to this one pulled nothing, (1425 is this muslim year).

Go on gang, see what you find. Today is not going to be much of a searching day for me.

3,802 posted on 05/27/2004 3:00:31 PM PDT by nw_arizona_granny (You can help win the election by becoming a REGISTRAR OF VOTERS, easy go to Court House and sign up)

Did everyone see this today??

Terrorist issues threats in three-hour phone call to local authorities
http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/news/052704_local_terrorcall.html

3,803 posted on 05/27/2004 3:01:40 PM PDT by Velveeta

To: Rushmore Rocks

Gawd, ain't that the truth. ROFLOL.

3,804 posted on 05/27/2004 3:01:44 PM PDT by Letitring

FOX news just reported something about airliner forced to make emergency landing at Nashville airport. air Force One is there as well. Didn't hear all of it. anyone else get this??!!

3,805 posted on 05/27/2004 3:02:58 PM PDT by sissyjane (You're either with us or against us.)

Fox News Alert:
American Airlines planes on the ground in Nashville. Note in bathroon saying explosives on board.

3,806 posted on 05/27/2004 3:03:04 PM PDT by Oorang ( When all else fails, simply revel in the absurdity of it all.)

To: nw_arizona_granny

I tried Gran but just found weird stuff. Some of their political rants turned up, but nothing to post.

3,807 posted on 05/27/2004 3:03:11 PM PDT by Letitring

To: British chick; ExSoldier

3,808 posted on 05/27/2004 3:04:48 PM PDT by Velveeta

3,809 posted on 05/27/2004 3:05:41 PM PDT by judicial meanz (Its well past time we played "cowboys and al qaeda")

Great story. Strange, but what isn't these days? I'm so proud of whoever kept that nut on the telephone for THREE hours. Amazing!

3,810 posted on 05/27/2004 3:06:06 PM PDT by Letitring

DC makes the most sense. Las Vegas and Dallas can be argued.

The target selection depends on who the top decision makers are/were for this operation. I am not entirely convinced that UBL and Zawahiri are factors any longer. Whether they are hiding, killed, or captured, they are largely isolated. and incapable of communication of the quality or quantity necessary to plan, organize, and direct an operation larger than 9/11. Madrid and Amman do not seem to have their fingerprints, it seems to be Zarqawi. He seems to have "power of attorney".

So you have to crawl in his head (and whoever else is making these calls). Is the goal of the operation (primarily) a psychological effect (mass casualty), strategic effect (economic or military disruption), or symbolic effect (destroying national leaders or monuments)?

I don't think we know what the AQ/Jihadist leadership structure is and the extent of their relation to states. I maintain that input if not control of target selection will come from the state sponsor(s) and the target options have been studied for years. (The post on last weekend's Basij conference was one of the most relevant of the 40K+ posts so far.) Target selection in Iraq since 8/07/03 exhibits "intelligent design" and is suggestive of future targeting here (decapitation). That is why DC is big.

I am not going to run down potential targets and their impacts (obviously). I don't have any info not available on the net, but it is not productive to start valuing alternative targets here at home. I don't want to go there. But the names of the cities (as opposed to the merits of one over another) have been speculated since 9/11. These threads began with the NYC/DC/LA threat. That threat remains relevant and in force. Las Vegas has come up in the news over the past couple years. Chicago was supposedly part of the 9/11 plan they scrapped because UBL thought it was too ambitious. They revisit targets. Texas targets (Houston or Dallas) seem logical from several vantage points. (Stratfor has an article predicting Houston that was linked last week)

Multiple targets seem the deal. So it is not "either-or".

UBL/Zawahiri/Saddam were more cautious. I think with the top of the axis "decapitated", new, younger, more reckless folks are coming to the fore (and silent, stronger axis partners) . 9/11 was psychological (trying for tens of thousands of casualties in the towers)and symbolic (killing national executive and legislative leadership and going after prominent physical targets of importance to both the American and Islamic target audience). It wasn't strategic.
It is cold, but decapitation in a democratic country is less of an issue than in a dictatorial country as democracies can more effectively, efficiently, and legitimately reconstitute a national leadership than one man or one ruling party/class on top of a pyramid. When Iraq was effectively decapitated (no one could find Saddam and many thought him dead), the entire government and military fell apart. We have a constitution (a real one that is actually followed and has legitimacy) and have preset lines of succession that have *legitimacy* (key word). You can have preset lines of succession on the other side, but no guarantee they will be followed.

Target selection might be different if a state or states are behind this. They would pressure the jihadis to go for strategic targets. Jihadis want symbolic and psychological targets (big body counts). States have more at risk and have different objectives. The Japanese were not interested in running up a body count, they just wanted the Pacific Fleet taken out of commission.

So to answer the question of what cities are most in danger you have to first assess how much value they have from each of these three perspectives, figure out who is making the operational and strategic decisions on their side and crawl in their head(s), and then resolve the decade-long debate as to what role, if any, nations have in sponsoring or even directing groups like AQ. And if they have a meaningful role to this day, how much "say" do they have as to how the operation goes down?

Figure all that out and you can predict where the hit will be. But if we still cannot figure out if Qaeda had anything to do with Iraq with 9/11, I am pessimitic that we could even get close to answering these more nebulous questions.

3,811 posted on 05/27/2004 3:06:53 PM PDT by NothingMan

To: British chick

Samir, the Jihad Falcon

A quick google reveals that a person named Samir Jerez who is associated with CAIR and is a jihad 'hawk' of sorts. Coincidence?

3,812 posted on 05/27/2004 3:07:10 PM PDT by Godzilla (If Kerry is the answer, it must have been a stupid question.)

i thought the name was french

3,813 posted on 05/27/2004 3:07:45 PM PDT by olde north church (BTW: My last tagline was grabbed by pollsters. Results: Bush 50% Kerry 39%)

>> Note in bathroon saying explosives on board. <<

Sounds like a prank. Hoping it is. AQ doesn't leave notes.

Please keep us cube_dwellers up-to-date on this.

Thanks Oorang!

3,814 posted on 05/27/2004 3:08:45 PM PDT by appalachian_dweller (The RIGHT of THE PEOPLE to keep and bear arms SHALL NOT BE INFRINGED.)

I loved Chinese Checkers, well the pretty marbles anyway, does that count? -g-

3,815 posted on 05/27/2004 3:08:58 PM PDT by JustPiper (There is a LAW of Cause and Affect)

That is a wierd story.

The call came into a 9-11 center in Houston from a surrounding county, but originated from somewhere in Afghanistan?

Something isnt right about that picture...911 automatically prints out the point of origin of every incoming call when the phone rings.

3,816 posted on 05/27/2004 3:10:24 PM PDT by judicial meanz (Its well past time we played "cowboys and al qaeda")

To: appalachian_dweller

Passengers evacuated from plane at Nashville Int'l Airport

http://www.wkrn.com/Global/story.asp?S=1902092&nav=1ugBNU2z

3,817 posted on 05/27/2004 3:11:06 PM PDT by Oorang ( When all else fails, simply revel in the absurdity of it all.)

Not sure about the significance of the names. I'm not very well up on all this but thought it was important I post it since no one else appeared to have seen it and the message was removed from the board so quickly.

3,818 posted on 05/27/2004 3:11:26 PM PDT by British chick

To: olde north church

Ummmmmmmmmm-huh. :) That's been brought to my attention. :)

3,819 posted on 05/27/2004 3:12:04 PM PDT by Letitring

Angels are all around us ;)

BELIEVE that we are real, true, and constant. By feeling us with you, and seeing us gather around you, you will become more accustomed to us and will not doubt our abilities to work with you.

With blessings,
Your Angels

{{PS They love giving gifts, just for the asking, how many people can you say that about?}}

3,820 posted on 05/27/2004 3:12:29 PM PDT by JustPiper (There is a LAW of Cause and Affect)

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