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Deus Ex Machina
Belmont Club | Friday, April 30, 2004 | wretchard

Posted on 04/30/2004 2:48:01 PM PDT by Cannoneer No. 4

The dramatic arrival of Major General Jassem Mohamed Saleh with the newly formed Fallujah Protection Army, to which the USMC is supposed to hand over control of Fallujah, must rank as one of the most surprising episodes of the war. The Washington Post said:

The surprise agreement in Fallujah, which was authorized by Marine Lt. Gen. James T. Conway, is intended to give more responsibility to Iraqis for subduing the city while attempting defuse tensions by pulling Marines back from front-line positions. ... The Marines will be replaced by a new militia called the Fallujah Protection Army, which will comprise 900 to 1,100 Iraqis who served in the military or other security services under former president Saddam Hussein, Marine officers said. The militia will be commanded by a group of former Iraqi generals, the officers said.

"They will bring in former Iraqi soldiers who are committed to fighting and maintaining the peace in Fallujah," said Lt. Col. Brennan Byrne, a battalion commander who was briefed on the deal. "They'll pick up from us," Byrne said. "The plan is that eventually the whole of Fallujah will be under the control of the Fallujah Protection Army. The goal is that anyone should be able to come into the city without being attacked."

The obvious question of where the Fallujah Protection Army came from is only slightly less interesting than how General Saleh came to head it. This article from the Egyptian Al Ahram describes the ongoing formation of the new Iraqi Army, made up quite literally, of a Kurd here, a Sunni there, and a Shi'ite in between. Many of the units they are to command are being trained in Jordan. More are being trained there and equipped by Australia.

The coalition authorities in Iraq this week appointed the leadership of Iraq's new army. A Kurdish general who organized the Kurdish fighters since 1973 will head them, with a Sunni Arab as the chief of staff and a Shia as his deputy. Each had already left Saddam Hussein's army before the last war, unlike dozens of officers who are now being trained to join the new army.

"They are my friends," says Saad Baryas Al- Waaly, 37, which is also why he will not furnish any details. But the former army doctor who is now working in a civil hospital in Najaf does acknowledge that quite a few of his former colleagues are now being trained in Jordan and Iraq. They will be the new officers in an army that is supposed to consist of around 40,000 men.

One of the unresolved questions about the new Iraqi Army is not only its command structure, but its size, allowable weaponry and ethnic composition. Many have argued, quite plausibly, that a lightly armed 40,000 man army is far too small to secure a country as large and lawless as Iraq, which is surrounded by terrorist hotbeds on every side. However that may be, some Jordanian trained units have been fighting beside Americans in Fallujah for a while. The invaluable Darrin Mortenson of the North County Times describes some of them.

When a loud crack sounded from the adjacent building in Fallujah on Thursday, the frontline Marines chalked the blast up to their noisy new neighbors and waited for the report of another "kill." The new Iraqi Counter Terrorism Force soldiers hidden in the house next door had just fired on a man carrying an AK-47 assault rifle in a neighborhood where U.S. forces have declared there are "no friendlies." As the violent stalemate in Fallujah bags a third week, the appearance of specially trained Iraqi snipers this week was a welcome development for Marines at the front ---- and an opportunity for the Iraqis and their U.S. Army Special Forces advisers to prove that not all Iraqi troops will cut and run when the shooting starts.

"They're doing all right ---- damned good shots, actually," a U.S. Special Forces adviser said Thursday, refusing to give his name. He said his small team of Iraqi Counter Terrorism Forces, part of a larger group of tough Iraqi volunteers who recently returned from four months of training in Jordan, were on their way to becoming a lethal weapon against the insurgents of Fallujah and elsewhere in the beleaguered country.

But although the 82nd Airborne had been training the Iraqi Civil Defense Corps around Fallujah for months, the provenance of the Fallujah Protection Army is still unexplained. One of the most difficult operations of war is relieving a unit in contact with the enemy. It first of all requires the existence of the relief force. News accounts which suggest that this-still-to-be formed Fallujah Protection Army (FPA) will take over from the Marines, said to be evacuating "front line positions" within a few days, are only slightly less incredible than a report that Batman, the Hulk and Wolverine have joined the Navy to see the world. The news up this point has raised more questions than it has provided answers. The key points which may become clearer in the coming days are:

-the relationship between the FPA and the forming Iraqi Army;

-the relationship between the FPA and the enemy holed up in the 'Golan' neighborhood;

-the combat role and time-to-establishment of this force.

The most likely scenario is that the FPA will be given charge over city areas free from heavy fighting and assigned general police duties. Those who perform meritoriously in this on the job training could be given regular ranks in the new Iraqi Army, a common relationship between paramilitaries and regulars. But forming militias, especially from local toughs, has always been a tricky business. There is plenty of money to raise militias against the enemy, but left unchecked, they can become lawless gangs unto themselves.

The one certain thing is that return of sovereignty to the Iraqis on June 30 will not see the end of conflict. The numerous insurrections, regional wars and massacres during the Saddam era are proof of the volatility of the Land Between the Rivers. And unless America can use its military power and wisdom to hold these fractious elements together, or transform them into a functioning society, it will remain a basket of snakes ready to strike at all and sundry.


TOPICS: Extended News; Foreign Affairs; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: belmontclub; fallujah; icdc; ipa; iraq; iraqiarmy; jassemsaleh; southwestasia
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To: Argus
they were of the same line as the current kings of Jordan, who are hereditary sharifs of Mecca, thus rivals to the Wahabi rulers of Saudi Arabia

King Abdulla would, therefore, be sort of an interesting guy to promote into some position of authority in Iraq then, wouldn't you think? Especially if, as we are often reminded, we eventually need to deal with our "allies" in the House of Saud.

Again, just thinking outside of the box here...

21 posted on 04/30/2004 3:50:11 PM PDT by jscd3
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To: the Real fifi
"This is a brilliant move for which we have been preparing for months."

I hope you are right. WE were told the Iraqi's would be trained to defend their country and provide their own security. I think its taken longer than expected. I hope this operation will be an example and may give other Iraqi units some incentive to take on more responsibility for security of "their" country.

22 posted on 04/30/2004 3:50:20 PM PDT by lstanle
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To: jscd3
Wheels within wheels...

I hope this turns out to be an instance of really smart, devious, machiavellian cunning on our part, and not just the prelude to a bugout.
23 posted on 04/30/2004 3:52:40 PM PDT by Argus
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To: Cannoneer No. 4
BTTT
24 posted on 04/30/2004 3:54:23 PM PDT by Fiddlstix (This Tagline for sale. (Presented by TagLines R US))
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To: Polybius
What matters is not what the press says during the battle but the outcome of the battle.

Not sure I agree...especially not when the average voter gets his opinions from the press. If they continue to paint this as a miserable failure and fail to report the outcome with the same verve and vigor they show now, well...

You and I know the truth, but does Joe Snuffy from down the street?

25 posted on 04/30/2004 3:57:15 PM PDT by HiJinx (Go with Courage, go with Honor, go in God's good Grace. Come home when you're done. We'll be here.)
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To: Argus
I hope this turns out to be an instance of really smart, devious, machiavellian cunning on our part, and not just the prelude to a bugout.

Condi Rice is a Hell of a lot smarter than I am, and if I can figure this possibility out, I'm sure that she has thought of it as well. Take a look at those eyes of her's - even when she is smiling, they tend not to be...

26 posted on 04/30/2004 3:59:59 PM PDT by jscd3
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To: Polybius
What matters is not what the press says during the battle but the outcome of the battle.

Analysis: A mini-Tet offensive in Iraq?

INFORMATION WARFARE: Winning the Media Battle

What matters is not reality but the perception of reality that can be created in the minds of the American people.

27 posted on 04/30/2004 4:11:53 PM PDT by Cannoneer No. 4 (I've lost turret power; I have my nods and my .50. Hooah. I will stay until relieved. White 2 out.)
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To: Dog
That may not be his real name. I googled him, got nothing.

This is much like the US Constabulary bringing an SS Gruppenfuehrer back to active duty in 1946. Hope the guy was one of the lesser criminals in the Republican Guard.

28 posted on 04/30/2004 4:19:34 PM PDT by Cannoneer No. 4 (I've lost turret power; I have my nods and my .50. Hooah. I will stay until relieved. White 2 out.)
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To: HiJinx
What matters is not what the press says during the battle but the outcome of the battle.

Not sure I agree...especially not when the average voter gets his opinions from the press. If they continue to paint this as a miserable failure and fail to report the outcome with the same verve and vigor they show now, well... You and I know the truth, but does Joe Snuffy from down the street?

Battles can takes weeks to evolve and to be fought.

The liberal news media injects it's Chicken Little spin in major doses twice a day, once in the morning and once in the evening.

Therefore, it is literally impossible to gain battlefield results that can counter the gloom and doom put out by the liberal media.

It is a fact of life that the majority of the American press is now performing the service that used to be performed by the German and Japanese Propaganda Ministries during World War II. Namely, to spin the war news in the worst possible light for America.

However, as Baghdad Bob and CNN's dropping ratings proved, such a policy ultimately backfires. You can't fool all of the people all of the time.

All the press hysteria about how the U.S. was fought to a standstill on the drive to Baghdad was debunked as soon as Baghdad fell.........and CNN's ratings fell too.

Right now, the liberal press is one of the enemies of victory but the liberal press is being fought by the truth, by media such as FOX and, yes, by those of us who can work through the Internet to educate others.

So, "What matters is not what the press says during the battle but the outcome of the battle."

That's my story and I'm stickin' to it.

I'm stickin' to it until the battle is won, until CNN is proven wrong yet again and until Joe Snuffy learns to switch from CNN to FOX because he has learned that he can't trust a d*mned thing he is told by CNN.

29 posted on 04/30/2004 4:25:20 PM PDT by Polybius
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To: Cannoneer No. 4
What matters is not reality but the perception of reality that can be created in the minds of the American people.

See my Post 29.

30 posted on 04/30/2004 4:26:51 PM PDT by Polybius
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To: Cannoneer No. 4
I googled him also...came up blank.
31 posted on 04/30/2004 4:27:58 PM PDT by Dog (In Memory of Pat Tillman ---- ---- ---- American Hero.)
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To: the Real fifi
This is a brilliant move for which we have been preparing for months.

No kids we are not there yet. We'll get there soon and this uprising will be quelled and you will never hear about it in the press. Just know it will happen. I, too, believe it is brilliant and the trained troops and deals with old leaders who can demand respect are just now coming through. Let's just hope those leaders tow our line and do the job.

32 posted on 04/30/2004 4:30:11 PM PDT by numberonepal
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To: Cannoneer No. 4
More are being trained there and equipped by Australia.

If they're lucky, they'll get the surplus Australian L1A1s...

;>)

33 posted on 04/30/2004 5:09:03 PM PDT by Who is John Galt? (I've shed more blood flossing my teeth than John Kerry lost getting his three Purple Hearts... ;>)
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To: jscd3
Maybe even in the name of the King Of Jordan, lawful ruler of Iraq...

One might hope that American politicians would be smart enough to consider that option - but I wouldn't bet on it...

;>)

34 posted on 04/30/2004 5:11:59 PM PDT by Who is John Galt? (I've shed more blood washing dishes than John Kerry lost getting his three Purple Hearts... ;>)
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To: HiJinx; Cannoneer No. 4
The mainstream press won a round today.

Two major briefings - Gen. Kimmitt, CJTF-7/CPA, and Gen. Abizaid, CENTCOM - and at least a half dozen DoD releases - based largely on the briefings - show that little has changed in Fallujah.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

..."The Marines have been extremely forthcoming in holding their fire, in choosing their targets, in trying to achieve a solution that's good for the good people of Fallujah"...."And yet, at the same time, will take out the common enemies that we share...that wish to destroy the peace process and the move to sovereignty in Iraq."

Fugitive terrorist Musab al-Zarqawi has used Fallujah as a base of operations, Abizaid said. A $10 million reward awaits the person who leads the coalition to Zarqawi.

...Abizaid called the notion that Fallujah will be a safe haven for Zarqawi "absolutely unacceptable."

  "All military options with regard to Fallujah are on the table. And I say they're on the table because I can't tell you what the enemy will do. There is an enemy in Fallujah that has something to do with Zarqawi; it has something to do with foreign fighters. And I can assure you that that enemy will not be controlled by even the best people in Iraq. And so we will have to eliminate that enemy in a way that does not allow that force to challenge us throughout Iraq and other places at other times...it may still be necessary to conduct very robust military operations in Fallujah. We hope we don't have to do that. We look for a solution that allows Iraqis and Americans, together in a spirit of cooperation, to regain control for the good people of Fallujah so they can get on with their lives. But if the foreign terrorists and the foreign fighters and those extremists that are Iraqis, those people from the Iraqi intelligence Service or the Special Republican Guard that refuse to take part in the political process, refuse to lay down their arms, it may be absolutely necessary to have a strong fight in there. And we're prepared to do that at a time and a place of our choosing."

8 Abizaid Warns Fallujah Brigade Results Won't Be Instant + CENTCOM briefing transcript ~ DoD-AFPS | 4/30/04

35 posted on 04/30/2004 5:41:09 PM PDT by Ragtime Cowgirl (The)"enemy in Fallujah.will not be controlled.we will have to eliminate that enemy."Gen.Abizaid,4/30)
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To: Dog
I think there is every expectation that the Iraqi general will fail in this task, and we'll have to move back in. So why offer our enemies an opportunity to beat the new Iraqi army? If they're going to beat someone temporarily (until we move back in and best them, of course), let them beat the old Iraqi army.

In the meantime, we can say we gave it a shot, and have proof that June 30 is too early for us to turn over security.
36 posted on 04/30/2004 6:35:07 PM PDT by ellery
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To: jscd3
There was lots of speculation about Jordan's king serving some role in Iraq before the war began. I seem to remember some meeting of Iraqi ex-pats that the king's son attended -- setting off some buzz along these lines.
37 posted on 04/30/2004 6:37:48 PM PDT by ellery
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To: jscd3
It would certainly explain the attempted al-Qaida operation against Amman...
38 posted on 04/30/2004 6:42:10 PM PDT by Keith (IT'S ABOUT THE JUDGES)
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To: Cannoneer No. 4
I had thought I knew what we were up to in Fallujah, but now...
39 posted on 04/30/2004 8:28:19 PM PDT by King Prout (poets and philosophers should NEVER pretend to Engineering... especially SOCIAL Engineering!)
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To: King Prout
Eurotwit has started a Belmont Club ping list.
40 posted on 05/02/2004 6:05:32 PM PDT by Cannoneer No. 4 (I've lost turret power; I have my nods and my .50. Hooah. I will stay until relieved. White 2 out.)
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