Posted on 04/28/2004 4:43:55 AM PDT by randita
Posted on Wed, Apr. 28, 2004
Specter edges Toomey in tight Senate battle
By Carrie Budoff, Thomas Fitzgerald and Patrick Kerkstra
Inquirer Staff Writers
U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter narrowly won the Republican nomination yesterday, beating back a surprisingly strong showing by U.S. Rep. Patrick Toomey in a race that underscored the national party's struggle to accommodate both moderates and conservatives.
Specter, who is seeking a fifth term, survived his toughest Republican primay challenge by leaning heavily on President Bush and U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum to bolster his standing among conservative voters.
"Now is the time, now that we've settled our family disagreement in the Republican Party, to unite for victory in November for the president," Specter told cheering supporters in a two-minute speech shortly before 1 a.m.
Toomey conceded about 12:45 a.m., saying he was proud to talk during the campaign about limited government, personal freedom, and lower taxes.
"We had a lot of ideas about the principles and values of the Republican Party," he said. "These ideas are at the heart of the Republican Party."
Voter turnout in the state appeared light - despite the close attention the race received from political observers around the country who considered it a guide on the direction of the Republican Party. At issue was whether the GOP still had room for centrists such as Specter, or only consistent conservatives such as Toomey.
President Bush actively backed Specter, believing he would be the best one to deliver Pennsylvania in the presidential election and hold the GOP's slight edge in the Senate.
Toomey was boosted by millions of dollars from conservative donors unhappy with Specter's tendency to vote with Republicans one day, Democrats the next.
Specter will face U.S. Rep. Joseph Hoeffel, a Montgomery County Democrat who ran unopposed for his party nomination, in the fall general election.
At the Park Hyatt at the Bellevue in Center City last night, Specter aides paced the grand ballroom shortly after the polls closed, nervously mining their BlackBerry handheld computers for information.
Specter made an unexpected visit early in the evening, joking about breaking tradition by speaking to supporters with the race still undecided. "But as you can tell by my record generally, I don't know a lot about protocol," the independent-minded senator said from the ballroom stage. "It's gotten me into a lot of hot water."
About an hour north, in Fogelsville, Lehigh County, Toomey supporters gathered at a Holiday Inn. As they waited for the election results, Star Trek played on a giant-screen TV.
Specter voted in Philadelphia before hitting poll sites in the region and giving several last-minute radio interviews.
Toomey started his day in Lancaster County, a conservative stronghold where he needed to perform well. He later returned to Zionsville, Lehigh County, to vote.
Only a month ago, Specter looked unbeatable. He had millions in campaign cash. He enjoyed the active support of the Republican establishment, from the White House to most Pennsylvania county courthouses. He had spread federal dollars across the state for 24 years, giving him plenty of local allies.
Specter positioned himself as Pennsylvania's powerbroker in Washington, the senator who used his seniority to bring influence to the state. He repeated the theme relentlessly.
But he found his reelection increasingly threatened by Toomey, a three-term junior representative from Lehigh County who was barely known outside in his district, which includes parts of Montgomery County.
Specter found himself weakened even as he outspent and outraised Toomey. The race's $18 million price tag - $14 million for Specter, $4 million for Toomey - made it the most expensive congressional race so far this year.
Toomey, a former restaurant owner and banker, used hard-hitting campaign ads and a tight focus on several key conservative issues - lower taxes, less government, abortion opposition - to narrow the race.
Toomey picked up support from leading conservatives around the country, who pushed his cause on the Internet and in right-leaning journals. The result was a steady flow of money and manpower to help combat Specter's advantages. The Club for Growth, a Washington group, pumped more than $2 million into the race in donations and campaign commercials.
The assistance allowed Toomey to tap into conservative resentment over Specter's 24-year record. Toomey repeatedly called the senator a tax-and-spend liberal. He reminded voters about Specter's 1987 vote that sank conservative U.S. Supreme Court nominee Robert Bork. And Specter's support from labor unions and trial lawyers, and history of siding with Democrats on issues.
Polls in the last two weeks showed that Toomey's message may have been resonating as he closed the race to single digits. But there was some evidence that Toomey's surge was beginning to slow over the weekend. That was when the Specter campaign began flooding the TV airwaves with a Bush endorsement ad.
Throughout the campaign, Specter and other top Republicans warned that a Toomey win could cost the GOP the White House and control of the U.S. Senate. Analysts say Bush would be better positioned to win Pennsylvania - a key swing state - with Specter on his ticket.
A Specter ad went up Friday asking voters to honor Bush's request to re-elect the senator. On Monday, voters across the state heard a telephone message that replayed clips from Bush's appearance last week in Pittsburgh at a Specter rally and fund-raiser. The National Republican Senatorial Committee, which had already provided $300,000 for Specter's final media buy, paid for the calls.
The active support from Bush and Santorum may have saved Specter, 74, a former Philadelphia district attorney. Last week, Specter acknowledged the value of their help. "Whether I would win it without them, I don't know," Specter said. "But I am glad to have them on my side."
Donald Matzelle, 68, a Chester County Republican, responded to the party pleas. "I believe as a centrist he will be of more value in the general election for George Bush," said Matzelle, a Birmingham Township resident who voted for Specter.
Julianne Eisele, 50, was drawn to Toomey because he opposed abortion and Specter was too happy to spend government money.
"I feel Specter is a Democrat in Republican guise," Eisele said after she voted in Birmingham Township, Chester County. "I'm very disappointed with the man, and I'm very disappointed that Bush endorsed him and Santorum endorsed him."
But not enough voters like Eisele decided to try somebody new.
Toomey was stymied by Specter's power of incumbency, which secured the state Republican committee to turn out the vote for him yesterday. Toomey had to rely on a network of committed volunteers.
By last night, Specter had pulled off another hair-thin victory.
Contact staff writer Carrie Budoff at 610-313-8211 or cbudoff@phillynews.com. Staff writers Diane Mastrull, Walter Naedele, Lini Kadaba and Dick Cooper contributed to this story.
YOU get a grip.
What do you have to say to the 60% of the Pennsylvania Republicans who did not vote?
Blaming Bush for this is galactically stupid.
They caved to their fear instead of standing up when they had a chance to make a difference. How completely disheartening.
I am disappointed in them. I wonder what they got out of the deal? I hope it's something worthwhile.
I disagree with this.
You have to remember that most people aren't politically astute as we Freepers are. I know lots of Conservative pro-life people (particularly women) who are clueless when it comes to politics. I guarantee to you that all they had to hear was the endorsement of their trusted pro-life Senator Santorum and they went in and voted for Sphincter, thinking they were doing the right thing.
Righto. If Bush had supported Toomey, then Toomey would have won. Hard to criticize Kerry when Bush trumped pro-life with getting elected. Wonder if Bush's pastor will deny him communion?
If you feel better blaming them, then that's OK. Looking at the numbers, though, the low turnout hurt Specter more than Toomey.
For Toomey to win, the general consensus was that he had to really carry the 'T' to offset Specter's 'C' (The T being the rural counties, the C being Pittsburgh, Philly, etc.)
The turnout in Allegheny Co (Pittsburgh) and the neighboring counties (Beaver, Butler, Westmoreland) was really low. Toomey actually carried all four, albeit by a small margin.
Toomey also carried most of the T counties, again, though, the margin was very small (for instance, Lancaster, one of the most conservative counties in PA, only went to Toomey by less than 6K votes (57-43)...that was a bad omen).
The county that won it for Specter....Bucks county, where Specter pulled in 75%, getting an extra 87K votes. The high turnout in Toomey's base could not counter that blow (Lehigh Valley went 67% to Toomey, but was only worth 10K extra votes).
Bucks Co. is Bush republicans. That is what did Toomey in.
The average republican does not really give two craps about Bork...it was 17 years ago. The average republican looks at the TV and sees an ad where Bush is emphatically supporting Specter and, predictably, follows their leader.
Two thoughts come to mind though.
1) Toomey's political future relies on him being a party guy right now. There are certain roles that have to be filled by these guys. It is why Goldwater endorsed and campaigned for Javitz. It is why Bush and Santorum helped Specter. And it is what the NJ Republican party establishment did NOT do when they lost to Schundler (and as such, sealed in my eyes the view that the NJ Republican party establishment needs to be completely revamped). We, on the other hand, are voters. We have to make our own judgements based on what we think is best for the country, not for the party.
2) "Mr. Toomey said that differences between him and the Senator were not nearly as great as differences with Democrats" -- this is a statement I agree with. I do think that the difference between Toomey and Specter are not as great as differences I have with Democrats. But that is not my calculation. My calculation is based on IF we are still going to control the Senate, then the choice is having one less vote of margin OR having one more vote of margin in the Senate but with Specter helping to ensure that the right kind of judges do not get confirmed, especially on the Supreme Court. I am sure that Hoeffel would be worse on judges than Specter, but Hoeffel would not be chair of the Judiciary committee.
I will not cast a vote to put Specter in that chairmanship unless it was to prevent Leahy from getting it. As a matter of fact, I will cast votes to ensure the best I can that Specter does not get it.
And, IMO, it seems go against the judgements of the person who you intitially supported.
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