[litany_of_lies]

Presidentelect.org is guesstimating 286-252 Bush. It has Oregon and PA in the Kerry camp, which I think is probably more correct than Federal Review.

Certainly these guesstimates should be enough to prevent overconfidence.

[TommyDale]

Nice post!

[Phantom Lord]

Didn't Federal Review predict a greater than 100 vote electoral college victory for Bush in 2000?

[TheBigB]

Interesting. Dales, you're our resident EC guy. What say you?

[11th Commandment]

Remarkably, with the election 6 months away, poll after poll shows that the amount of undecided voters is low- anywhere from 2% to 8%. This shows how polarized the country is. So which poll do we turn to? The common wisdom is that we turn to Zogby because he got it right in 1996 and in 2000.

The problem is that Zogby got lucky in 2000 because he predicted (actually guessed) that more democrats would show up to the polls that republicans. Thanks to a last minute voter push by the Gore Camp in states that ironically he was predicted to take anyway, Gore took the popular vote. Florida turned out closer because the panhandle vote was light after the networks “predicted” Gore was going to win the state before the polls closed.

Luckily for Zogby, these two unpredicted factors propelled him to pollster god. Dick Morris and others love to tout how Zogby got it right in 2000, and we should only trust him. Since Zogby has the current presidential race at a tie, Morris states this is a problem for Bush. But what about the 2002 election?

Not to be outdone, Rove and the RNC revamped the grass root get out the vote for 2002. This was disastrous for (the democrats and) Zogby who was showing on November 4th, 2002, tight senate races. Dick Morris even cited Zogby in his column, (again as the only reliable source because, after all, he got the 2000 election right) stating, “… that the democrats had turned the tide”. This time Zogby’s prediction (actually, it’s a guess) that more Democrats would turn out to vote than Republicans was wrong. He blew it; Morris got it wrong in 2002.

So obviously Dick Morris dethroned Zogby as the pollster god and would not rely on his polling data that favors more democratic voters than republicans for the current presidential race? (That’s a rhetorical question, no need to answer.)

The lesson learned is that with the country narrowly divided with a few undecided, it is going to come down to who can get out the vote. The party can increase turnout to the slightest degree can spell victory. What pollsters should be telling us is who is more motivated to vote this November.

[JohnnyZ]

It's spelled Dook.

[RetiredArmy]

I continue to be at a total, staggering loss, as to why any American would want to vote for this guy Kerry. I am totally blown away that people could find anything at all positive or good in him to vote for! At a total loss.