Bad call.
IMO, Bush has to crush Fallujah, or he goes home in January.
If you think that the terrorists in Fallujah will *refrain* from attacking those patrols, then this ceasefire agreement might be a mistake.
On the other hand, if you think that it is a no brainer that our patrols will be attacked, that we will then respond with overwhelming force, and that the French and the UN will then have to grit their teeth and say that our response to the attacks on our patrols was justified (and say that President Bush was correct to try for a peace that the terrorists were too stupid to live with), then this agreement can only be viewed as utterly, totally, completely brilliant.
I'm afraid you are correct. This will be viewed as a "I want to be re-elected" decision, rather than a "I'm behind my military" one. Morale will take a nose dive when the U.S. portions of those patrols are killed. We have just received news from our own administrator that the Iraqis did not perform well. And we expect victories with half of our teams composed of these same quality fighters in the "toughest" region in Iraq!?
Fallujah is a city of 300,000 people of which about 200,000 still remain in the city. Out of those 200,000 people, maybe about 1,000 are bad guys.
IMO, the president's purpose in Fallujah is not to crush the 200,000. It's to get the remaining thousand or so bad guys.