'Alamo' Bomb Pressures Disney's Eisner

reuters ^ | Mon Apr 12, 5:06 PM ET | By Peter Henderson

[Flavius]

'Alamo' Bomb Pressures Disney's Eisner Mon Apr 12, 5:06 PM ET Add U.S. National - Reuters to My Yahoo!

By Peter Henderson

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - The Alamo lasted 13 days before Mexican troops overwhelmed it, but a dismal three-day debut was enough for many observers to label Walt Disney Co.'s $100 million "The Alamo" film a bomb and wonder if embattled CEO Michael Eisner would share the Texas mission's fate.

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Some analysts said the box office defeat of "Alamo," which depicts the battle at the San Antonio outpost in 1836, might pave the way for high-level management changes and maybe even for Comcast Corp. (NasdaqNM:CMCSA - news) to take over Disney.

"Depending on the size of the write-off and the pressure it places on earnings, the board could consider changes to management and the board itself, or invite Comcast in for productive two-way negotiations," said Richard Greenfield, an analyst at Fulcrum Global Partners.

But others argued that a Comcast deal was unlikely, regardless of the film's fate.

The movie about the men behind the battle of Texas independence from Mexico took in an estimated $9.2 million in its opening weekend, easily and embarrassingly topped by Mel Gibson's "The Passion of Christ," the comic-book adaptation "Hellboy" and tying comedy "Johnson's Family Vacation."

It cost $98 million to make and millions more to market.

Some analysts predict Disney (NYSE:DIS - news) will take a write-off of at least 1 cent per share for the second quarter ended in March -- a bad sign for Eisner, who is fighting of a shareholder revolt.

Disney's studio division has led the company in recent quarters but has had tepid showings with animated Western comedy "Home on the Range" and horse adventure "Hidalgo," two films which cost almost as much as "Alamo."

"You put that with all the other things going on, it's got to be putting pressure on Eisner and the board to do something," said independent analyst Dennis McAlpine.

"They could replace Eisner, give him certain deadlines to meet -- but then you get in to whom do you replace him with, or do you go to Comcast?"

DIFFERENT VIEWS ON COMCAST

Schwab SoundView analyst Jordan Rohan cut his profit forecast for the second quarter, ended in March, to 22 cents per share from 25 cents, citing expected movie write-offs.

But Rohan's new earnings target is still ahead of the 20-cent per share Wall Street average, according to Reuters Research, a unit of Reuters Group.

Shares of Disney fell 34 cents, or 1.31 percent, to close at $25.70, and Richard Greenfield, analyst at Fulcrum Global Partners, said the shares had not fallen farther because investors believed chances rose for a Comcast takeover that would profit Disney investors.

Not everyone agreed a deal was in the works, though.

The all-stock offer made by Comcast in February lags Disney's market value by $5.65 billion, or about $2 per share.

That is less of a difference than before, but Banc of America Securities analyst Douglas Shapiro predicted that the gap was unlikely to close and said that Comcast was "severely constrained" in its ability to raise its offer.

He wrote in a research note that Comcast was likely to abandon its bid for Disney, and he raised his rating on Comcast to "buy" from "neutral" on that premise.

Comcast shares rose $1.15, or nearly 4 percent, to $30.39.

Sanford Bernstein analyst Craig Moffett said a rise in Comcast shares on Monday reflected growing sentiment that a deal would not happen, but that conversely the failure of "The Alamo" could keep dim hopes alive longer.

"Had 'The Alamo' been a blockbuster it would have put Disney out of reach. With both 'The Alamo' and 'Home on the Range' posting disappointing opening weekends, its likely to leave Comcast's bid on the table longer," he said.

[Flavius]

well sorry for people that may own the stock..

but im not a Disney fan... not the original Disney but the current company and what it stands for.

I dont think its family oriented it money oriented and they do not care where the money comes from... so anyways im glad their projects are failing ...

sorry for people that work for em...

[BenLurkin]

"Walt Disney Co. (NYSE:DIS - News) shares fell 34 cents to $25.70 as its costly feature film "The Alamo" took in a disappointing $9.2 million at the box office during the holiday weekend" http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040412/markets_stocks_22.html

[Unam Sanctam]

I haven't seen the movie, but wasn't it a revisionist politically-correct version of the event? I wouldn't mind seeing a truly objective and accurate movie portrayal.

[staytrue]

I think Eisner's next movie probably should be "Waterloo"

[Flavius]

Actually in this version we had CNN ask the Mexicans for a cease fire after which the Mexicans promptly shot up the whole place..

And CNN said it was all the Texans fault because they used excessive force and did not respect the feelings of the mexican army...

CNN was deeply sadden and apologized for all the enviromental damage done by the US only lead that was fired ...

anywho I just assume anyting coming form Holywood is well tainted one way only...

yes im bitter...

[Yardstick]

We (conservatives) had been bracing for the release this movie for months, forewarned that it was a work of revionist agitprop set to undermine a great piece of American history. Now it's here and it turns out to be a total dud. Kind of anti-climactic, thankfully.

[BenLurkin]

"Republic. I like the sound of the word.
It means people can live free, talk free,
go or come, buy or sell, be drunk or sober, however they choose.
Some words give you a feeling. Republic is one of those words that makes me tight in the throat.

"The same tightness a man gets when his baby takes his first step, or his first baby shaves, and makes his first sound like a man.

"Some words can give you a feeling that make your heart warm. Republic is one of those words." - John Wayne, 'THE ALAMO'

[Jalapeno]

LOL

[Riley]

Blow off the 'politically correct' nonsense. You nouveaux Disney folks think that we're all a bunch of ignorant rubes that need to be taught the 'real' American history.

Bull. Dig beyond your politics and see the truth. Yes, the old American heroes had their foibles, along with the rest of us.

But that wasn't who they were, or what they were about. Look again.

[texasbluebell]

"Some words can give you a feeling that make your heart warm. Republic is one of those words." - John Wayne, 'THE ALAMO'

Hey Eisner & Co., this very day I bought the John Wayne version of The Alamo on cd.

If you think we're all fools, go ahead and think it. But my money's not going to you.

(And it's not going to any project with that Thornton creep in it either. Whaddya take me for?)

[PUGACHEV]

That was my opinion too, which I expressed on another thread as my reason for not seeing the film. Several other Freepers who did see the film responded that I was wrong: the film was actually pretty evenhanded. But that's the problem in a nutshell: Disney puts out PC Hollyweird garbage so often that whatever the studio makes is unattractive to an increasingly enlightened general public. If The Alamo had been released by some other studio, or an independent producer, it probably would have done better.

[texasbluebell]

Well, that should have been dvd, not cd...

[Yardstick]

You're right -- when I hear the word "Disney" my radar immediately goes up for leftist spin.

Of course, with The Alamo you had Ron Howard and BillyBob Thornton (is that his name?), guys who would be suspect regardless of the studio, at least to conservatives. I'm not sure if the general public would be savvy enough to pick up on these sorts of political overtones or not.

[d_Brit]

I read an early review, that claims every significant "texican rebel" is portrayed as deeply flawed. Alcoholism, adultery! etc. Every significant mexican figure is portrayed positively.

Nothing is said about the main event that precipitated the impulse that led the texicans to declare independance. Santa Ana had just months before declared himself military dictator of mexico in a coup. Living under an illegal dictatorship was NOT an option for former americans of that day. The movie is typical, shallow, PC revisionist history.

Finally rhetorically speaking, how stupid is it too alienate the natural demographic the movie would attract?
Conservatives, Texans, patriotic types are the movie's natural demographics, not liberal types from berkely...

As CEO, Eisner is directly responsible. Anyone with stock in Disney who can't see the writing on the wall deserves their fate.

[First_Salute]

Bump.

[GeronL]

revisionist history. As a Texan, I have zero interest in it

[NotQuiteCricket]

My mom hates what disney did to Florida. She is waiting every hurricane season to see if one will come through and wipe out Orlando (she is a lib btw, which makes perfect sense, because disney brought business, tourisim, and *gasp* strange foreign people into *her* state, not to mention what they did to the Everglades).

Anyway - I was coerced into seeing "Home on the Range" last night. It was a snoozer, but the kid liked it. We arrived at the theatre early, and had to sit through about 20 minutes of their advertising/music/trivia pre show - it was horrible. You would think that they would figure that people who are going to see a kid movie don't want to listen to rap crap.

[jalisco555]

The best film on the Alamo I've seen is the Imax version that I saw in San Antonio at the mall near the Alamo. It was about 40 minutes long and very well done. I wonder if it's still showing there.

Frankly, I found the John Wayne version a windy bore. I doubt I will ever see the Disney version.

[Flavius]

Well,

The stock price and audience participation is the proof of sorts that all is not well with Disney ...

Maybe they need to change some things...

Even Disney family appears to be of similar opinion judging by the news reports...

oy