A Marked Difference: Most Shiite Arabs Oppose Attacks; Islamic State Is Not Preferred

ABCNEWS ^ | April 5, 2004 | Gary Langer

[rogueleader]

Shiite Arabs in Iraq express relatively little support for attacks against coalition forces such as those that occurred Sunday. And while most do express confidence in religious leaders and call for them to play a role in Iraq today, most do not seek a theocracy, and very few see Iran as a model for Iraq.

A nationwide poll of Iraqis conducted in February for ABCNEWS also found that very few Shiites express support for Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, whose militia mounted the deadly attacks against the U.S.-led occupation. Nine coalition troops, including eight Americans, and more than 50 Iraqis were killed in the clashes.

As reported previously, anger at the United States peaks among Sunni Arabs in Iraq, not Shiites. According to the poll, Shiites are about 30 points less likely to say the invasion was wrong or to say it humiliated Iraq, and 12 percent of Shiites say attacks on coalition forces are acceptable, compared with 38 percent of Sunni Arabs. (That rises to 71 percent of Sunnis in Anbar province, which includes the city of Fallujah, a hotbed of the resistance.)

Shiite Arabs are somewhat less fragmented politically than Iraqis as a whole; 20 percent express support for the Islamic Al-Dawa Party, the oldest Islamic movement in Iraq, which calls for a fundamentalist state. This level of party loyalty is exceeded only among Kurds for either of the two Kurdish parties, the PUK or PDK.

In terms of al-Sadr, a bare 1 percent of Iraqis name him as the national leader they trust most. On Iran, just 3 percent name it as a model for Iraq in the coming years, and just 4 percent say it should play a role in rebuilding Iraq.

Government

Sixty-nine percent of Shiites say "a government made up mainly of religious leaders" is something "Iraq needs at this time" (southern Shiites, especially, say so); that compares with 44 percent of Sunni Arabs. But more Shiites say Iraq needs a democracy or a single strong leader, and about as many say it needs a government of technocrats.

What Iraq Needs At This Time
	Shiite Arabs	Sunni Arabs
An Iraqi Democracy	91%	76%
Single Strong Leader	83	85
A Government Mainly of Religious Leaders	69	44
A Government Made Up of Experts	66	65

Another question asked respondents to make a choice among three systems: a strong leader, an Islamic state or a democracy. A plurality of Shiites picked a democracy. (Still, more Shiites than Sunnis favor a theocracy, 26 percent vs. 15 percent; and again this peaks in the south.)

Preferred System
	Shiite Arabs	Sunni Arabs
Democracy	40%	35%
Islamic State	26	15
Single Strong Leader	23	35

Fifty-two percent of Shiite Arabs express confidence in religious leaders, compared with 34 percent of Sunni Arabs. At the same time, about as many Shiites express confidence in the new Iraqi army (57 percent), and more in the Iraqi police (69 percent).

Down South

Shiites predominate in the south — 69 percent of Iraqis in the southern provinces identify themselves as Shiite, peaking at 92 percent in Karbala. Looking at it another way, 63 percent of all Iraqi Shiites live in the south. (A good number of Muslims declined to specify a doctrine; they tend to match up closely with Shiites on a variety of attitudinal questions.)

There are some significant differences between Shiite Arabs in the south and those in other regions. Shiites in the south are nearly twice as likely as those elsewhere to prefer an Islamic state, 31 percent to 16 percent. They're also much more apt to say a government mainly of religious leaders is something Iraq needs now.

At the same time, Shiites in the south — a region heavily repressed under Saddam Hussein's regime — are more likely than those elsewhere to say it was right for the coalition to invade, and to say the invasion liberated rather than humiliated their country.

U.S.-Led Invasion Was
	Southern Shiite Arabs	Shiite Arabs Elsewhere
Right	56%	44%
Wrong	28	47

Invasion
	Southern Shiite Arabs	Shiite Arabs Elsewhere
Liberated Iraq	49%	34%
Humiliated Iraq	27	53

What Iraq Needs At This Time
	Southern Shiite Arabs	Shiite Arabs Elsewhere
A Government Mainly of Religious Leaders	79%	52%

Preferred Political System
	Southern Shiite Arabs	Shiite Arabs Elsewhere
Democracy	39%	41%
Islamic State	31	16
Single Strong Leader	18	33

Confident in Religious Leaders
	Southern Shiite Arabs	Shiite Arabs Elsewhere
	57%	44%

Nearly all Shiites in Iraq — 96 percent — also identify themselves as Arabs. Sunnis, by contrast, include both Arabs and members of the Kurdish minority.

Methodology

The Iraq poll was conducted for ABCNEWS, ARD, the BBC and NHK by Oxford Research International of Oxford, England. Interviews were conducted in person, in Arabic and Kurdish, among a random national sample of 2,737 Iraqis age 15 and up from Feb. 9-28. The results have a two-point error margin.

See previous analyses, full questionnaire and details of the Iraq poll's methodology in our Poll Vault.

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Shiite Arabs in Iraq express relatively little support for attacks against coalition forces such as those that occurred Sunday. And while most do express confidence in religious leaders and call for them to play a role in Iraq today, most do not seek a theocracy, and very few see Iran as a model for Iraq.

A nationwide poll of Iraqis conducted in February for ABCNEWS also found that very few Shiites express support for Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, whose militia mounted the deadly attacks against the U.S.-led occupation.

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ABC News...was Fallujah a wake-up call for some in the press?

[Happy2BMe]

"was Fallujah a wake-up call for some in the press?"

They (the press) will go back to their old lying ways in a day or two.

But it sure as fire was a "WAKE-UP CALL" to our forces in Iraq.

We gonna be one-lean-mean-monster-sumbi$h figthin' machine when it comes to handling the islamic animals from here on out.

[MeekOneGOP]

Good news bump !

[Alamo-Girl]

Bump!

[blackie]

We are winning ~ the bad guys are losing ~ trolls, terrorists, democrats and the mainstream media are sad ~ very sad!

~~ Bush/Cheney 2004 ~~

[PhilDragoo]

Dan Rather is deeply saddened.

Once again the Arab street disappoints doom-and-gloomers.