Posted on 04/01/2004 7:46:30 PM PST by Jean S
The inability of the news media to understand what is really happening in a presidential campaign sometimes approaches legendary proportions. These days, all their attention is focused on the Sept. 11 hearings and the demand that Condoleezza Rice testify to comment on Richard Clarke’s charges. The conventional wisdom says that Bush’s ratings as a wartime commander and leader in the war on terror have been undermined by Clarke’s testimony and book and that the president is in danger of losing his best issue.
But that’s not what is going on.
According to the useful daily tracking polls of Scott Rasmussen, Bush led Kerry by two points before the flap broke out. At the height of the hearings and in the wake of Clarke’s “60 Minutes” TV interview, Kerry moved ahead by 3 points. By the end of the week, the race had again become tied as Bush recaptured virtually all the ground he had temporarily lost.
It is not the ground war that is important right now. It’s the air war between rival campaigns’ paid advertisements. What has happened in March of lasting significance is that John Kerry’s negative rating, according to the Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll, has risen from 28 percent March 4 to 36 percent March 24.
Bush’s ratings will oscillate up and down, depending on the events of his presidency. But when a challenger’s negatives rise, the increase is forever. Lacking the control over events that an incumbent has, the challenger loses votes permanently as his negatives rise. So far, the negatives are still below 50 percent, but by the end of spring they could be high enough to swamp the Kerry campaign.
For all of his vaunted determination to avoid the mistakes of Mike Dukakis, John Kerry is making the same errors all over again. He is not answering Bush’s attacks.
Bush’s ads hit Kerry for advocating a 50-cent hike in the gas tax. No answer.
The president’s negative commercials criticized Kerry for subordinating the defense of the United States to the decisions of the United Nations. No response from Kerry’s ads.
And when the incumbent told a frightened nation that Kerry wanted to weaken the homeland security protections of the USA Patriot Act, the Massachusetts Democrat was again silent.
The only attack Kerry has answered is the charge that he plans to increase taxes by $900 billion in his first 100 days. His answer is to deny the attack and to reaffirm his backing for a “middle class” tax cut. But voters understand how inelastic the definition of middle class can be and the Kerry answer is not likely to be decisive.
In 1995, I played on the media’s inability to look up to the sky and watch the air war, and on its obsession with events on the ground, by running ads attacking Newt Gingrich and Bob Dole as early as July of that year. We kept the ads off the air in New York and Washington. The press never noticed that we were advertising. Month after month, we saw Dole’s negatives rising, but the media could never tell where it came from even though we were advertising on their own stations!
Indeed, since I believe the current election is really a contest between two issues — terror veruss jobs — the Sept. 11 hearings ultimately do not hurt Bush so much as help to underscore the importance of his key issue. The Fox News poll shows that voters agree that Bush would do a better job of fighting terror by 50-27 while crediting Kerry with doing the best at creating and protecting jobs by 48-31.
Neither man is likely to erode the advantage of the other on his foe’s key issue. Bush will still lead on terror, Richard Clarke or no Richard Clarke. Kerry will still lead on jobs, no matter what the economic data show (it takes a long time to filter down from data to reality). So the real question is which issue predominates. Score March as Bush’s month.
|
Dick Morris is the author of Off With Their Heads: Traitors, Crooks, and Obstructionists in American Politics, Media, and Business. |
Exactly.... "Vote for me, I'm better than you". LOL
Buried in the news lately is Bush expressing dismay over the big spending plans coming out of Congress.
He wants them to trim it back.
The Bush campaign is being orchestrated by geniuses, and it is nice when you can get Congress on board to give you these kinds of openings. Of course, I'm not saying there is any collusion going on here or anything.....
First, Dick Morris is an evil genius. This:
We kept the ads off the air in New York and Washington. The press never noticed that we were advertising.
is so brilliantly evil that I expect Dick Morris to have a cameo at Dr. Evil's table in the next Austin Powers movie. Um.. but good if we steal it and use it to elect someone other than Clinton. So anyway...
News poll shows that voters agree that Bush would do a better job of fighting terror by 50-27 while crediting Kerry with doing the best at creating and protecting jobs by 48-31.
The American people still collectively have the economic understanding of a turnip. Ol'time liberal tax-&-spend Kerrey knows how to create and protect jobs? Sure, he can hire a few new towel boys for that mansion on the Riviera where he yucks it up with Jaques Chirac, but American businesses will create more jobs with Bush's tax cuts alone than all of Kerrey's pool cleaners combined. And that's not even considering what Kerrey's new taxes and over-regulation will do to job creation.
Ok... we're a nation of economic idiots. But at least we're not as lost as Candians. We'll still re-elect Bush in the end.
No, of course you're not. Absolutely not. You would never do that, ever. Ever? Well, hardly ever.
"The inability of the news media to understand what is really happening in ___________"
LOL
The president’s negative commercials criticized Kerry for subordinating the defense of the United States to the decisions of the United Nations. No response from Kerry’s ads.
And when the incumbent told a frightened nation that Kerry wanted to weaken the homeland security protections of the USA Patriot Act, the Massachusetts Democrat was again silent."
Maybe Kerry's in the Bahama's following his ski vacation and his stint in the hospital. Maybe he only ran to get some vacation time from those grueling votes that he's never in D.C. for and to pay off his house.
This will begin to shift given Q1 (and spectacular March).
Clever Morris, this tactic: "kept the ads off the air in New York and Washington. The press never noticed that we were advertising. Month after month, we saw Dole’s negatives rising, but the media could never tell where it came from even though we were advertising on their own stations!"
I have been thinking the same thing. However, if the dims were to pull the switch-a-roo, I believe that it'll end up mortally wounding the party.
First of all, it show just how weak the party is if they cannot decide on a candidate.
Secondly, the dim party will look.... well.... undemocratic. Whomever the nominee is, will have been, "Selected not elected." We'll be able rub the dims noses in that phrase till election day. "Being decided in a smoke filled room" is another damning phrase that comes to mind.
Finally, if the dims were to dump Kerry, it also means that they explain why they are dumping him and it may also extend to dumping is political platform.
So while it may initially be scary that the dims dump Kerry, I believe it'll be a huge positive for the good guys in the long run.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.