Electoral College Breakdown 2004, March 31st Update

ECB2004 ^

[ken5050]

Excellent, as always, and thanks for your efforts....your analysis is superb on its own. I always print it out, and whenever I come across a poll reference in the papers of on the tube, I'll often refer over to your data and analysis to see it in context..

Re New Jersey, you're correct in your basic assessment that the state in trending Democrat the last decade. However, whenever the Dem Machine in Trenton really screws things up, as McGreevey is doing now, the voters often show their displeasure at the next election. And more to the point, they tend to keep their resentment well concealed to polsters..The two best examples..How virtually unknown Jeff Bell came within a whisker of knocking off Bill Bradley, and more recently, when Florio got dumped..the final results in both races were way off from the last pols taken...

[jack gillis]

Could be, dales, but Corzine spent $60 million to saturate the state, and that's probably 80% of the entire post-convention budget.

If I were Bush, I'd make it a second-tier target.

As for the voters punishing McGreevy or the machine ... FORGET IT. Same in Minnesota. Supposedly popular GOP governor? California? Arnold's the savior?

FORGET IT.

People treat their vote for President entirely distinctly from every other civic act. FL in 2000 proved that if it proved nothing else.

[TomEwall]

It's unlikely that Bush would do better only in states that are close to ground zero, although he could do less better (nice grammar) in other states. But if he does just a teensy little bit better in Oregon, New Mexico, or Wisconsin, he wins those states.

[Dales]

I'd make it a second-tier target.

I'd make it third tier. It is expensive, and the entire GOTV foundation needs to be rebuilt.

Identifying a target and thinking the target's cost/benefit/risk ratio is beneficial are two very different things.

:-)

As for if an unpopular incumbent can sink a ticket, the answer is yes IMO, especially if the voters identify him with the party strongly.

[Wyatt's Torch]

That jives with this:

courtesy of Tradesports.com via Trend Macrolytics

[jack gillis]

But Tom, if you look at Dales's state-by-state, that "unlikely" scenario already is playing out!!

As I said, check out the RCP table, which has the Gore spreads conveniently attached!!

[Dales]

But Tom, if you look at Dales's state-by-state, that "unlikely" scenario already is playing out!!

Jack, Jack, Jack. Getting ahead of ourselves already. There is still part III of the article, which looks at what the three middle designations tell us. ;-)

[Political Junkie Too]

I was also running some Tradesports numbers. They have a continuous scale, where Dales has a discrete 9-point scale, so Tradesports is slightly more optimistic towards Bush.

I'm only showing the expected value and the probability at the 270 electoral vote point. I could also include the 10/50/90 points (perhaps the 1 and 99 also) to show the shape of the probability curve.

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

And fifth, Schwarzenegger is talking about drivers' licenses for illegal immigrants again, after running on a platform of repealing Davis' pander bill giving them licenses.

-PJ

[TomEwall]

On RCP it shows Bush doing better in NV, MO and AZ, none of which are 9/11 proximity states. He's doing worse in WV, but better in PA, which would, I presume, be similarly located in regards to 9/11 proximity.

The poll results have been all over the place, which I think reflects differences in methodologies, the companies taking the polls, and the dates they're being taken. I'm not discounting the theory that 9/11 will help Bush more in states closer to where it happened, but think it's unlikely that Bush will improve in popular vote but do worse in E.V. The closest states went to Gore last times, except for N.H. and Florida, which seem to be more pro-Bush than last time. So by logic it would take a larger move in the popular vote for Kerry to pick up states than for Bush.

However, in an election that's so close as last one's, it's basically a coin flip. I remember last time there were quite a few prognosticators that were predicting a Bush popular vote win, but a Gore E.V. win. I don't recall the scenario which actually occured being predicted.

I don't think this election will be that close however (knock on wood).

[jack gillis]

I tend to disagree.

I suppose if an unpopular governor were both strongly identified with a party AND somehow personally connected with a nominee, it might be a drag, but I can't think of an example from the last couple or three cycles. But we know of at least one obverse example of a very popular governor with a close personal identification with the nominee, the Bush brothers, and GW underperformed Jeb by a wide margin.

It's almost like voting for President is a right brain activity while all other votes are left brain.

[jack gillis]

I had not heard that. Unbelievable.

Has he wound up doing ANYTHING substantive that Gray Davis didn't try or wouldn't have done?

[jack gillis]

Fair enough.

So there's a bit of tendency, then, but not neccessarily a trend. However, you still mentioned only Bush states.

And you are correct about the foolish prognosticators last time. Except for me!! Ask Dales: When Bush was ten points up with five weeks to go, I predicted it would close to dead heat by election day.

[TomEwall]

I mentioned PA. That's not a Bush state. One could also mention MI and CA. I mentioned WV as a counter example.

BTW, I'm not discounting the possibility that 9/11 will have more of an impact in nearby states. I'm just saying that it's unlikely that Bush would improve in the popular vote and not win. Again, MN, IA, WI, OR, and NM were so close, the odds would be that he'd pick something up there.

I don't remember Bush being by 10. I remember it being more like 4. I suppose some odd poll or other could have had him up, but I remember the press saying the whole time it was a dead heat. I think Bush really was ahead by 4, and then that DUI thing happened, and that's why the election was so close. I think a 4 point win this time around is a reasonable guess (Bush can reclaim the DUI voters who have had time to reconsider -- I wonder what nepharious revelation the left has planned this time).

[steveegg]

Latest Wisconsin Badger Poll, taken March 23-March 31 among 500 voting-age adults has President Bush up 47%-41% including all other candidates (and Nader) in Wisconsin, and up 49%-45% head-to-head against John F'em Ke(rr)y. Thread here

[TomEwall]

Wisconsin's color is wrong on your April 2nd map.