[Dales]

I'd make it a second-tier target.

I'd make it third tier. It is expensive, and the entire GOTV foundation needs to be rebuilt.

Identifying a target and thinking the target's cost/benefit/risk ratio is beneficial are two very different things.

:-)

As for if an unpopular incumbent can sink a ticket, the answer is yes IMO, especially if the voters identify him with the party strongly.

[jack gillis]

I tend to disagree.

I suppose if an unpopular governor were both strongly identified with a party AND somehow personally connected with a nominee, it might be a drag, but I can't think of an example from the last couple or three cycles. But we know of at least one obverse example of a very popular governor with a close personal identification with the nominee, the Bush brothers, and GW underperformed Jeb by a wide margin.

It's almost like voting for President is a right brain activity while all other votes are left brain.