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Fair enough.

So there's a bit of tendency, then, but not neccessarily a trend. However, you still mentioned only Bush states.

And you are correct about the foolish prognosticators last time. Except for me!! Ask Dales: When Bush was ten points up with five weeks to go, I predicted it would close to dead heat by election day.

I mentioned PA. That's not a Bush state. One could also mention MI and CA. I mentioned WV as a counter example.

BTW, I'm not discounting the possibility that 9/11 will have more of an impact in nearby states. I'm just saying that it's unlikely that Bush would improve in the popular vote and not win. Again, MN, IA, WI, OR, and NM were so close, the odds would be that he'd pick something up there.

I don't remember Bush being by 10. I remember it being more like 4. I suppose some odd poll or other could have had him up, but I remember the press saying the whole time it was a dead heat. I think Bush really was ahead by 4, and then that DUI thing happened, and that's why the election was so close. I think a 4 point win this time around is a reasonable guess (Bush can reclaim the DUI voters who have had time to reconsider -- I wonder what nepharious revelation the left has planned this time).