GOP has yet to reap redistricting bonanza (Texas)

Caller-Times ^ | March 13, 2004

[SwinneySwitch]

Texas Republicans saw a rout in the offing, but the jury's still out.

Texans went to the polls Tuesday (in pathetically low numbers) to register their preferences in the Democratic and Republican primaries, and we saw the usual pratfalls and triumphs, winners and also-rans.

But as we pore over the returns like so many tea-leaf readers, we would do well to put the matter in a larger context. This, after all, was payoff day for the Texas Republican leadership: Last spring and summer, the GOP - through no fewer than three special legislative sessions - bullied, bartered and bruised its way to enactment of a new congressional districting plan.

Never mind that a plan was already in place and had been used in 2002: That didn't suit the Republicans, and it really didn't suit one of the party's most unrelenting hard-liners, U.S. House Majority Leader Tom "The Hammer" DeLay.

The former exterminator knew he couldn't put all the state's Democratic congressmen and women out of business, however much he might have liked to do so. However, to his hyper-partisan way of thinking, it was nothing short of outrageous that, going into the 2004 elections, Texas Democrats still outnumbered Texas Republicans in the House, 17-15.

Thus, DeLay - who evidently could spare the time from his Washington duties - became the prime mover in a campaign to toss out the redistricting plan approved by a panel of federal judges (after the Legislature could not agree on a formula).

As the drive to that end continued, DeLay seemed to be everywhere, an avenging . . . well, not an avenging angel, exactly - more like an avenging ideologue. Were the faithful wavering over here? Were GOP moderates showing signs of willingness to compromise? DeLay was on the case instantly. Gov. Rick Perry, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, House Speaker Tom Craddick - all were bent, willingly or unwillingly, to DeLay's grand design.

So how did they do? No doubt to the dismay of DeLay and company, Austin's liberal Democratic Congressman Lloyd Doggett - whose district the Republicans had gerrymandered into a weird new configuration taking in Brownsville and portions of Austin - sailed through to his party's nomination, and looks to be well-funded and well-situated for November. Another congressman on DeLay's hit list, San Antonio's Ciro Rodriguez, eked out a 126-vote victory in his primary contest.

But DeLay and company did bring home some trophies: Rep. Chris Bell, a moderate white Democrat who was redistricted into a new, predominantly black district, lost in his bid to return to the House.

One prominent Austin player, State Sen. Ron Wilson, lost in the Democratic primary - in part, perhaps, due to his decision to align himself with House Speaker Craddick in the redistricting donnybrook.

Now, the focus shifts to surviving Democrats targeted by DeLay and his cohorts. Thirteen-term Democratic U.S. Rep. Martin Frost tops the list, which also includes such veterans as Chet Edwards of Waco, Charles Stenholm of Abilene and Nick Lampson of Beaumont, among others.

Will the GOP gain a majority? That's entirely possible. Will it get the kind of sweeping victory it wants? That's another matter.

Many Texans found the GOP's bully-boy tactics in the special sessions repellent. And of these, more than a few will be disinclined to crown the Republicans' our-way-or-the-highway tactics with success at the polls.

[SwinneySwitch]

No mention of the demonrat legislators fleeing to OK and NM or conservative Democrat Ralph Hall switching to the Republican parties. TX CD 25 doesn't go to Brownsville! What a bunch of demonrat poop!

[GeronL]

Shouldn't we wait until after the election to say it doesn't help??

[WOSG]

This column is a pile of Texas longhorn "rose food".

DeLay wanted more Republicans coming from Texas. Doggett's career is his own concern. We dont like doggett but that is only because he is a left-wing partisan grandstanding fearmonger.

THE REAL QUESTION IS WHAT IS THE LIKELY PARTISAN MAKEUP IN THE TEXAS DELEGATION TO CONGRESS? What is it shaping up to be come november?

It's 16-16 now, thanks to Ralph Hall's switch. How many are safe GOP, safe Dem, and 'in play'? Is Bonilla at risk? Any other GOP candidates with strong challengers?

I am guessing Frost would lose. So the only possible survivors are Edwards and Stenholm. Anyone got odds on that?

With CD-10, CD-2 and CD-11 adding 3 new GOP Congressmen, and survival of sessions, neubebauer, and win of arlene wolgemuth in april then in november - can we expect a 21 GOP , 11 Dem split? or is that 22 GOP?

[SwinneySwitch]

Even if it's 21-11, that's still a whole lot better than 15-17! And don't count Klein out yet - we still have 8 months to go!

[CurlyDave]

The majority of the people in the state are Republican.

Why anyone would think that, due to previously gerrymandered districts, the majority of the representation in Washington should be Democrat is completely beyond me.

[WOSG]

I looked at filings and the results of the primary, here's what I have as my breakdown/analysis I assume we knock of Stenholm and Chet Edwards but not Doggett. CD1 I dont know about. It give 22-10 the GOP/DEM split:

1. Gohmert GOP (runoff) vs Max Sandlin DEM -- GOP ?
2. Ted Poe (Nick Lampson DEM) GOP pickup
3. Sam Johnson (I) GOP
4. Ralph Hall (I) GOP
5. Jeb Hensarling (I) GOP
6. Joe Barton (I) GOP
7. John Culberson (I) GOP
8. Kevin Brady (I) GOP
9. Arlette Molina (DEM - Al Green) DEM
10. Ben Streusand/McCaul (runoff) GOP pickup
11. Mike Conaway GOP pickup
12. Kay Granger (I) GOP
13. Mac Thronberry (I) GOP
14. Ron Paul (I) GOP
15. (Alexander Hamilton GOP) Ruben Hinajosa DEM - DEM
16. David Brigham GOP vs Silvestre Reyes (I) DEM - DEM
17. Wohlegemuth/Snyder (runoff) v Chet Edwards (I) DEM - GOP pickup
18. Sheila Jackson Lee (I)- DEM
19. Randy Neugebauer (I) GOP v. Charles Stenholm (I) DEM - GOP pickup
20. (Roger Scott GOP) - Charles Gonzalez - DEM
21. Lamar Smith (I) - GOP
22. Tom DeLay (I) (DEM - Rich Morrison) GOP
23. Henry Bonilla (I) (DEM - Joe Sullivan) GOP leaning
24. Kenny Marchant GOP v Gary Page DEM - GOP pickup
25. (Becky Amendariz Klein GOP v. Lloyd Doggett DEM - DEM
26. Michael Burgess (I) GOP
27. (Will Vaden GOP) v. Solomon Ortiz (I) DEM - DEM
28. (Jim Hopson GOP) v. Ciro Rodriguez (I) DEM - DEM
29. Gene Green (I) DEM
30. Eddie Bernice Johnson (I) DEM
31. John Carter (I) GOP
32. Pete Sessions (I) GOP

[WOSG]

Anyone who says this didnt help the GOP is an idiot. Check my analysis. Even if we lose the possible ones like CD-17 and 19,
we will be up 5 seats thanks to redistricting.

[WOSG]

I should call 23 "GOP". It sounds like Bonilla's opponent is not a serious one.

[GeronL]

The GOP had about 60% of the vote in 2000... and we didn't get even a tie in seats..

[GeronL]

Did you watching any boxing on HBO tonight??

Anyway, I know your right. Cuz yer the expert who runs a precint and I am nobody. But if I win the lotto I am starting a company and hiring Freepers! =o)

[WOSG]

hope you didnt take my comment wrong, I wasnt criticizing you, I was criticizing the original article. It thought DeLay was foiled simply because Doggett carpetbagged over to CD-25.

you are right that we wont know until november whether we get a 5 seat pickup or 7 seat pickup, but imho it is in that range.

anyway, gettin' late, i'm getting punchy, you have a g'nite!

[GeronL]

How did you get the idea I felt criticized?? Wouldn't I have said something....

Oh, wait... I was deeply offended! I demand reparations =o)

[pawdoggie]

If everything's as hunky-dorey for the Texas 'Rats as the author implies, what the heck was all their beefin' about?

[DustyMoment]

The reports of the ineffectiveness of Texas' redistricting are premature and greatly exaggerated.

Look at the other side of the coin, in a state with over 12 million voters, approximately 650,000 showed up to cast a vote in the primary. That's a pretty small number to declare the new redistricting plan ineffective.

The author's nuts!

[pete anderson]

I remember being very happy in August when DeLay claimed that he drew Doggett out of existence but Doggett was able to win big in a Hispanic district. It looks like DeLay underestimated Lloyd and because of DeLay's error I will have to live in Doggett's district for the next 20 years.

[Flyer]

*Redistricting PING!*

As always, a FReep mail will get you on or off this Houston and Texas topics ping list.

[Texasforever]

I was just thinking the same thing. You can't reap until harvest time, at least that was what my poor ol' pappy said.

[ThJ1800]

One prominent Austin player, State Sen. Ron Wilson, lost in the Democratic primary...

Funny, I worked in the Senate last year, but I don't remember Ron Wilson being there, probably because he was a state representative from Houston, not a state senator.

[Democratshavenobrains]

How DARE Republicans create unfair congressional regions!!! Only Democrats can do that!!!

[MeekOneGOP]

They really try to Hammer 'the Hammer' don't they ??
I bet Delay didn't miss 36 of 38 votes THEN like Kerry
has this year !!

From the article:

Never mind that a plan was already in place and had been used in 2002: That didn't suit the Republicans, and it really didn't suit one of the party's most unrelenting hard-liners, U.S. House Majority Leader Tom "The Hammer" DeLay.

The former exterminator knew he couldn't put all the state's Democratic congressmen and women out of business, however much he might have liked to do so. However, to his hyper-partisan way of thinking, it was nothing short of outrageous that, going into the 2004 elections, Texas Democrats still outnumbered Texas Republicans in the House, 17-15.

Thus, DeLay - who evidently could spare the time from his Washington duties - became the prime mover in a campaign to toss out the redistricting plan approved by a panel of federal judges (after the Legislature could not agree on a formula).