Nicholas Read
CanWest News Service
Thursday, April 01, 2004
When it comes to predicting "the big one," scientists still can't tell when a major earthquake will hit. But thanks to research by Simon Fraser University seismologist Andrew Calvert, they may have a better idea of where it might occur.
Using Canadian and American data from 1985, '89 and '98, Calvert, has determined a certain kind of earthquake is likely to occur on either side of southern Vancouver Island near populated areas in Canada and the United States.
"The closer you are to an earthquake, the more damage it's likely to cause," Calvert said. "The fact that we're having earthquakes occur directly below Victoria and Puget Sound means we're sitting in an area of some risk."
His findings are published in this month's edition of Nature.
Calvert determined there is a point on either side of Vancouver Island where one of the two massive tectonic plates that meet off the North American coast dips down below the other. It is thought earthquakes would occur at this so-called inslab point.
Inslab earthquakes happen when one tectonic plate -- in this case, the Juan de Fuca plate -- dips below the other, the North America plate.
The plates are continental and meet at a faultline about 200 kilometres west of Vancouver Island that runs from the northern tip of the island to California.
JERUSALEM-April 1, 2004 — The outer wall of a hotly contested Jerusalem holy site is in danger of collapse because of damage caused by a recent earthquake, according to a report published Thursday.
At issue is the eastern wall of what is known to Jews as the Temple Mount and to Muslims as the Al Aqsa Mosque compound, a holy site at the heart of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
On Feb. 11, a moderate earthquake hit the region, causing structural damage to some buildings, but no casualties. A report by Israel's Israel's Antiquities Authority warns that the wall is in danger of collapse, said Raanan Gissin, an adviser to Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.
"The report is warning that this must be taken care of right now so that it won't collapse," said Gissin, who has seen the document.
The fate of the compound is one of the most sensitive issues in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and tensions have repeatedly led to widespread bloodshed.
Israel has accused the Islamic Trust, the administrator of the holy site, of carrying out renovations without coordinating with Israeli authorities. In one of the largest renovation projects so far, the Islamic Trust renovated underground vaults on the eastern site of the raised platform and turned them into prayer areas.
Muslim officials, in turn, have accused Israel of weakening the structure of the compound by carrying out excavations nearby, a charge Israel denies.
Islamic Trust officials, the Antiquities Authority and police were not available for comment.
Personally, I think that the quake was God's way of saying that it is time for the Al Aqsa Mosque to be dismantled.