Electoral College Breakdown, March 7th Update

ECB2004 ^ | 3/6/04 | Dales

[Dales]

I Wouldn't Touch It With a 10 Foot Poll

Right now, most nationwide polls show a very tight race between President Bush and Senator Kerry. The media loves a horse race because it sells copies and drives ratings; the media is in full feeding frenzy mode right now over the sagging poll numbers for Bush and the soaring ratings for Kerry. There are two problems with this conventional wisdom. First, the movement of the polls that we are seeing now is nothing unusual. Second, winning electoral votes on the state level elects Presidents. A race that is close in either popular vote or in electoral vote may not be close in the other. Despite these caveats, there are some interesting numbers in recent polls that point to some of the problems facing President Bush.

The pattern repeats itself every election cycle. The incumbent, dealing with the inherent difficulties of actually having to participate in governance while the opposition candidate can paint a tapestry of vibrant possibilities, watches his poll numbers fall during the third year of the term. Every single incumbent in the last quarter century has fallen behind the challenger at some point in the period ranging from the fall of the third year to the selection of the opponent. The closest any President has come to avoiding this phenomenon was the unusually popular Ronald Reagan. Like those before and after him, he too fell behind during this timeframe; unlike most his deficit occurred earlier and he retook the lead earlier as well, leading in most polls through when Mondale officially won the right to challenge. Even then, many polls showed his lead dwindling to within the margin of error at that time. The fact that Bush has fallen behind Kerry right now is, in and of itself, not indicative of re-election woes.

As for the state elections, they are what the ECB is all about. Currently, the President holds a significant advantage. He has more electoral votes in his control, and is approaching the magic 270 plateau that would ensure his re-election. His challenger has well below 200 in his control; Mr. Kerry has his work cut out for him. But things are rarely as cut and dried as that, and this is no exception. The states which Mr. Kerry has in hand are extremely unlikely to move to the President, with the possible exception of Wisconsin. On the other hand, one could envision several of the states in the President's ledger, such as Ohio or Missouri, ending up being extremely tight. For now, though, the advantage is clearly with the incumbent.

Despite the state-by-state advantage, the media is describing a horse race, the last election was a horse race, and the last election's electoral map was similarly rosy for Bush at this stage of the race in 2000. Why has Kerry been able to close the gap? And how likely is it that he will be able to maintain his pace?

Category\Time Period	1Q03	2Q03	3Q03	4Q03 (avg)	3/1/04
Somewhat Approve	13	12	15	12	10
Lean toward Approve	10	11	10	11	10
Mixed feelings	4	2	2	3	3
Lean toward Disapprove	13	13	14	13	16
Somewhat Disapprove	5	4	5	6	4

I left off two rows here, which I will add back momentarily. These are from the AP/Ipsos-Public Affairs poll, which is as good as any to use and happens to have the benefit of being the most recent poll available to me. Looking at these numbers, one gets a sense for how static things are. Given the margin of error, the fluctuations are consistent with random variance. Over the past year, approximately the same percentage of people somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, lean one direction or the other, or have mixed feelings. There may have been some slippage of 2-3% from those who somewhat approved of the President who now lean towards disapprove, but that is not certain; one would more expect slippage in this regard to be spread among the lean towards approval, mixed feelings, and lean towards disapprove categories rather than just end up in the latter. In either case, for those without strong feelings about the President, there has been remarkably little change, and what change there has been has been relatively ambivalent.

Let's add in the two rows.

Category\Time Period	1Q03	2Q03	3Q03	4Q03 (avg)	3/1/04
Strongly Approve	34	39	31	30	28
Somewhat Approve	13	12	15	12	10
Lean toward Approve	10	11	10	11	10
Mixed feelings	4	2	2	3	3
Lean toward Disapprove	13	13	14	13	16
Somewhat Disapprove	5	4	5	6	4
Strongly Disapprove	20	18	22	25	29

The real movement here has been at the ends of the spectrum. There has been a 10-point increase in those who strongly disapprove of the President, while at the same time there has been between a 6-10 point decrease in those who strongly approve of the President. This is unusual movement.

Such movements are normally indicative of feelings of betrayal. This is unsurprising, since Kerry and the Democrats have been pounding that theme for months with their constant drumbeat of "Bush lied", "Bush sold out to special interests", and other negative populist mantras. The poll question on handling of foreign affairs and the war on terrorism is most interesting in this regard. In 2003, the percentage of those who strongly supported the President on these matters ranged from the low to mid 40s. Now, the level is 36%. The Democrats attacks on Bush's handling of Iraq and WMD are clearly resonating with people who otherwise were supportive of the President.

If the President wants to stem the bleeding, he's going to have to remake the case over the war with Iraq. If he does this, then he will recapture enough of those who he has lost to give himself a comfortable margin. If he does not, he may find that while anger is not a legitimate public policy stance, it is a force that can swing elections.

Should the Bush camp have concern at this point, or should they be very concerned? Later in the Ipsos poll, they drilled down to try to find the answer to this question. What they found is that right now, while overall they are reporting the race as being Bush 46, Kerry 45, that those who are strongly for their candidate break for Bush 37%-28%. Further, while 18% of those who said they are either going to vote for Bush or are leaning that way said they may change their mind, that is slightly more than half of the Kerry voters who say the same (34%).

While the dynamics of the movement away from the President are unusual, the magnitude and certainty of the movement is not. It would be extremely uncommon, at this point, for the challenger to not be having a honeymoon period with the voters, who let their imaginations run wild as to if he is their political knight in shining armor, or at least a more handsome prince. Puppy love fades though, at least until the convention, when love can bloom anew. That is the pattern I expect to see; Bush should drift upwards in the next few weeks, and then the race should stagnate until the Democrat convention (or until Kerry names his VP, which would cause the effect to happen sooner). At that point, the Democrats will again lead in the nationwide polls.

How big a margin will determine if they can grab the lead at the state level, which is what is really important. Gore never got a sufficient lead after his convention, and while he almost ran the table to steal the election at the end (perhaps thanks to the DWI hit piece), we should have a pretty good idea of who will be President by if Kerry can take the lead on the state-by-state level within a few weeks of the Democrat convention, and hold it for a few weeks. Or if he cannot.

Victor David Hanson recently wrote,

If White House politicos figured that many who were angered about out-of-control federal spending and immigration proposals would grumble, but not abandon Mr. Bush — given the global stakes involved after September 11, and the specter of a new alternative foreign policy far to the left of that of a Warren Christopher and Madeline Albright — then they were absolutely right.

As a conservative who is very disappointed or perhaps downright angry with the administration's spending, it pains me to say that this insight strikes me as being correct. My guess is that some of those who went from being strong backers of Bush, but now are strongly disapproving, are people who are upset with the spending and want to send a message. Hopefully this is the message Bush's camp is getting now. The base is unhappy. Control spending, and re-make the case on Iraq. If he does both, then Kerry will not likely ever be in the lead again, either nationwide or state-by-state.

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Updated States

	Illinois
	Electoral Votes: 21
	2000 Result
	Gore 55%
	Bush 42%

Background: Before Clinton broke through, Republicans had won six straight Presidential contests in Illinois. But Clinton's win against Bush was not because of Perot; he would have carried it without him in the race. And Gore flat out spanked Bush here.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
6/9/03	Chicago Tribune	NA	RV	3.8%	Bush	38%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Bush +2
10/20/03	Chicago Tribune	NA	700 RV	3.8%	Bush	38%	Unnamed Democrat	49%	Dem +11
1/9/04	Chicago Tribune	Link	RV	3.8%	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	48%	Dem +8
3/3/04	Research 2000	Link	500 LV	5%	Bush	36%	Kerry	54%	Kerry +18

Punditry: The new poll is even more solid for Kerry, and comes close to shifting Illinois to safe. But, for now, it remains Strong Advantage for Democrats.

	California
	Electoral Votes: 55
	2000 Result
	Gore 53%
	Bush 42%

Background: On a three election streak for the Democrats, California has a reputation as a liberal bastion. While Gore did handle Bush easily in 2000, the fact is that the reputation may not fit the data on the Presidential level. Only three candidates have broken 53% in California since the 1964 landslide. Al Gore last time, homestate icon Ronald Reagan in his re-election campaign but not his first election, and Richard Nixon in his re-election campaign but not his first successful Presidential campaign.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
8/16/03	Field	NA	RV	4%	Bush	42%	Unnamed Democrat	47%	Dem +5
8/16/03	Public Policy Institute	NA	LV	3%	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Dem +5
1/3/04	Public Policy Institute	Link	LV	3%	Bush	45%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Tied
1/13/04	Field	NA	RV	3.4%	Bush	46%	Unnamed Democrat	47%	Dem +1
1/18/04	Rasmussen	NA	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Unnamed Democrat	46%	Dem +5
2/13/04	Knowledge Networks	Link	RV	4.1%	Bush	38%	Kerry	42%	Dem +4
2/16/04	Public Policy Institute	Link	1,103 LV	3%	Bush	37%	Kerry	54%	Dem +17
2/22/04	LA Times	Link	1,521 RV	3%	Bush	40%	Kerry	53%	Dem +13
2/27/04	Knowledge Networks	Link	505 RV	3.8%	Bush	38%	Kerry	43%	Kerry +5

Punditry: The new poll is right in line with what Knowledge Networks (also known as the Hoover Institute) previously had. So who is right? Knowledge Networks? Field? Rasmussen? The L.A. Times? Public Policy?

It is hard to say, but one thing that is pretty consistent among the various polls is that Bush's support is either right at, or slightly below, 40%. It is with Kerry (or the unnamed Democrat) where the variance is here. Odds are this is indicative of a state that wants to vote for a Democrat, but is not enamored with Kerry. An optimist would say this is an opportunity; certainly Governor Schwarzenegger will play it that way to help entice the administration into spending money on California. A pessimist would say that those voters will eventually warm up to Kerry.

I am still with the pessimists here. Although this last poll is squarely in the leaning category, I am keeping California Strong for the Democrats for now. If the next poll validates this one, then I will reclassify it.

	Connecticut
	Electoral Votes: 7
	2000 Result
	Gore 56%
	Bush 38%

Background: 3-5-3 in the last 11, with Clinton's first being probably due to the Perot factor.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
3/11/03	Quinnipiac	Link	RV	3%	Bush	37%	Unnamed Democrat	51%	Dem +14
7/31/03	Quinnipiac	Link	RV	3%	Bush	37%	Unnamed Democrat	51%	Dem +14
2/26/04	University of Connecticut	Link	448 RV	4%	Bush	36%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +13

Punditry: The new poll adds nothing new of interest. Strong Advantage for Democrats.

	Maryland
	Electoral Votes: 10
	2000 Result
	Gore 57%
	Bush 40%

Background: Since the 1960 election, the only Republicans to carry Maryland were Nixon for his re-elect, Reagan for his re-elect, and George H. W. Bush during his first campaign. Clinton did not need Perot to win here either time. This is a Democrat state.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
1/12/04	Potomac, Inc	Link	1,200 LV	2.8%	Bush	41%	Unnamed Democrat	51%	Dem +10
2/27/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +9

Punditry: It surprises me that Bush is this close in Maryland. Strictly by the numbers, I would move this to the leans category, but given the previous few election results, I want to see more evidence first. Maryland remains a Strong Advantage for the Democrats.

	F		Florida
			Electoral Votes: 27
			2000 Result
			Bush 48.85%
			Gore 48.84%

Background: Despite the best efforts of the results-oriented Florida Supreme Court, Bush held on to win the state in 2000, just as every recount conducted afterwards validated. Did you know that since 1948, though, that only three times has Florida gone for the Democrat candidate? Johnson got 51%, Carter got 52%, and Clinton (2nd term) got 48% (with Perot taking 9%). More times than not, the Republican has come closer to 60%. Why Bush underperformed here to such a degree is something his campaign must rectify.

In the first ECB of 2000, Florida was listed as a battleground with a slight advantage to Gore. This time around, it is starting with a slight advantage for Bush. Florida has 6 Democrat Representatives and 18 Republicans. Both chambers of the state legislature are controlled by the Republicans. Republicans control most of the executive branch. However, both Senate seats are held by Democrats. As of Dec. 1, 2003, the state registration was 41.9% Democrat and 38.6% Republican.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
4/29/03	Mason-Dixon	Link	LV	5%	Bush	53%	Unnamed Democrat	38%	Bush +15
12/3/03	Schroth & Associates	Link	800 RV	3.5%	Bush	43%	Unnamed Democrat	37%	Bush +6
1/15/04	Rasmussen Reports	Link	LV	5%	Bush	47%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Bush +2
2/27/04	Research 2000	Link	500 LV	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	42%	Bush +5
3/4/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
3/4/04	Schroth & Associates	Link	800 RV	3.5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6

Punditry: Three new polls this week. The first showed Bush opening up a lead beyond one span of the margin of error, the second showing Kerry with a one point lead, and the third showing Kerry with a 6 point lead. The former poll is more in line with previous results, but the other two are more recent. It seems only fitting that we are getting mixed messages from Florida. It is also fitting to designate Florida a Tossup.

	Kansas
	Electoral Votes: 6
	2000 Result
	Bush 58%
	Gore 37%

Background: Kansas has been a clean sweep for the GOP since Johnson beat Goldwater.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
2/9/04	SurveyUSA	Link	500 RV	4.3%	Bush	52%	Kerry	44%	Bush +8
3/4/04	SurveyUSA	Link	501 RV	4.5%	Bush	57%	Kerry	39%	Bush +18

Punditry: Last time, I said "currently an 8 point lead for Bush at a time where Kerry is riding high in the polls in a state that always goes Republican and last time was well into the double digits? Sounds like a Strong Advantage for Bush." Now it is an 18 point lead. This is bordering on moving to safe.

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There is also out, as of Saturday, a Scripps Howard Texas Poll. I could not find the actual percentages, but to no one's surprise it shows President Bush carrying Texas.

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Last Update: 3/7/04

Summary Table

Effective National Popular Results: Bush 46%, Kerry 44%

Kerry					Bush
Safe	Strong	Lean	Slight	Tossup	Slight	Lean	Strong	Safe
VT (3)	NY (31)	WI (10)	NM (5)	OR (7)	NV (5)	GA (15)	CO (9)	ND (3)
MA (12)	DE (3)	-	ME (4)	WV (5)	NJ (15)	TN (11)	SC (8)	AL (9)
DC (3)	MD (10)	-	MI (17)	PA (21)	NH (4)	MO (11)	KY (8)	MT (3)
RI (4)	WA (11)	-	MN (10)	FL (27)	AZ (10)	VA (13)	KS (6)	WY (3)
HI (4)	CT (7)	-	IA (7)	-	-	OH (20)	MS (6)	UT (5)
-	IL (21)	-	-	-	-	IN (11)	SD (3)	ID (4)
-	CA (55)	-	-	-	-	AR (6)	LA (9)	AK (3)
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	NC (15)	NE (5)
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	OK (7)
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	TX (34)
Totals
Kerry States			Battleground States			Bush States
26	138	10	43	60	34	87	64	76
174			137			227

Discuss ECB2004 On Free Republic

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Last week's quiz:

How well do polls measure the underlying population? Imagine a state (let's call it Michigan). Let's say that we conduct a poll where we are going to sample 600 voters. Let us further say that God has whispered in our ears and told us that "right now, Kerry has the support of 49% of the voters, and Bush has support of 45% of the voters." When we run our poll, approximately what percentage of the time will our 600 voter poll show Kerry ahead (by any margin)? What percentage of the time will our 600 voter poll show Bush ahead (by any margin)? And what percentage of the time will they be tied?

To answer this question, one can use what are called Monte Carlo simulations. Pretty much, a Monte Carlo simulation is just one where things are set up to have the same probability, and then you just use random chance. You repeat it many times to get a feel for how often each result occurs. If you do enough iterations, you get the probability. I ran 1,000,000 simulations of a 600 sample where each "person" polled had a 49% chance of answering "Kerry" and a 45% chance of answering "Bush".

When a 'win' was considered to be where a candidate got 301 or more of the 600 in the sample, then Kerry came out higher in 83.87% of the iterations, Bush higher in 15.12% of them. When a 'win' was considered to be where the results are reported as integer percentages instead, then Kerry came out higher in 81.15% of the iterations, Bush in 12.83% of them.

So Cal Rocket and Coop anwered it correctly. Coop did first using his intuition. So Cal Rocket used the method I did.

This week's question: The most recent American Research Group poll of Florida has Bush getting 44% of the vote. The previous poll, by Research 2000, had his support level at 47%. When a candidate gets 44% of the support in a poll, what are the odds (represented as a percentage of the time) that his real level of support is 47% or greater? Assume there is a way to find out what the real level of support is, and assume that the poll has a sample size of 400.

[Dales]

Yes, I know that this is the 6th. I am going to be busy most of the day tomorrow. I considered waiting until midnight to post this, but what the hey.

Enjoy!

[evad]

WE're all doomed

[farmfriend]

short list

[hoosiermama]

Thanks Dales.
PKM, DD thought you might want to see this.

[Kuksool]

Ping!

[raloxk]

"If the President wants to stem the bleeding, he's going to have to remake the case over the war with Iraq"


I wouldnt expect this from the President. He doesnt have Bliar's ability to get out and justify the war regardless of what others may think.

The Bush family has always had a problem. They know their intentions are good and expect others to automatically see it, without having to constantly remind voters of those intentions. I was reading a few years ago how the Bush's didnt understand why they werent more popular with Blacks. After all the Bush's while in TX in the 1950s were very racially progressive and GHW Bush lost his congressional seat because he was too loberal on race relations. Yet they didnt get any Black support. I think the same is ture with Iraq. GW Bush knows it was the right thing to do, it is obvious to him, but he thinks it is obvious to the voters as well.

[KQQL]

NJ leans RAT..there is no W wins in NJ

NH is a tossup
so are MN , NV

OR leans(slight ) to RAT,

OH is a slight GOP lean to a toss up.

ARG poll is crapola...
FL has slight lean to GOP..in 04.

I bet you today W wins FL 52-53%- Kerry's 46%..Others 1%

[KQQL]

@

[KQQL]

thanks for the ping..

[raloxk]

I cant believe GA is only slightly leaning to the GOP. In the past few years GA has become the most GOP state in the union. Unemployment statewide is about 4.2% and Atlanta is creating about 50,000 jobs annually. Any polls?

[KQQL]

GA leans Republican like 54-45 -1%

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

Given that Oregon is allergic to tax increases, you think Bush would at least have a good chance of picking it up this year.

[Lancey Howard]

BUMP for great freeping.
This is fantastic work.

[Tailback]

I wonder if the homosexual marriage issue is starting to affect the polls yet? Oregon is a tossup state right now and people are really getting pissed off about Multnomah county.

[Lancey Howard]

I agree 100% on New Jersey.
That place is a foul, liberal toilet. New Jersey is corrupt to the core, owned and operated by the education mafia. No way Bush carries New Jersey. The stench is pure Democrat.

[KQQL]

As things are shaping @ this time...

W will likley lose almost all NE states:
(NH will go to the wire -Leans rats @ this time)

W will also lose in CA/NJ/WA/WI/IL/MD/DC/HI
---
Finally in FL it will be
....W 52-53% - Kerry 46% - others 1% in Fl
-------
Here are the toss up states for 04.

MN,IA,PA,NM and
OH,WV,AZ,NV,NH.
and maybe MO ..if Dickey is on the ticket.

---

MI and OR lean slightly RAT..@ this time..but could be in play.....depending on the Gay-MArriage issue and the state of Economy .
---
Finally
IF Kerry wins OH.........
then W has to win in PA or MN and IA..

[KQQL]

As things are shaping @ this time...

W will likley lose almost all NE states:
(NH will go to the wire -Leans rats @ this time)

W will also lose in CA/NJ/WA/WI/IL/MD/DC/HI
---
Finally in FL it will be
....W 52-53% - Kerry 46% - others 1% in Fl
-------
Here are the toss up states for 04.

MN,IA,PA,NM and
OH,WV,AZ,NV,NH.
and maybe MO ..if Dickey is on the ticket.

---

MI and OR lean slightly RAT..@ this time..but could be in play.....depending on the Gay-MArriage issue and the state of Economy .
---
Finally
IF Kerry wins OH.........
then W has to win in PA or MN and IA..

[TonyInOhio]

OH is a slight GOP lean to a toss up

Nope. Things are not as bad here as the media wants you to believe.

More importantly, the once-dormant Ohio Democratic Party is now on death's door, and GOP GOTV efforts will be especially strong here (I know they will be in my county).

[KQQL]

W won ohio by 1% if you count Nadar's vote in 00..
so I will leave OH slight lean to toss up for GOP ...plus I need to see a recent poll from OH, before I change it.