[DoughtyOne]

I think it's important to point out that after eight years of Clinton, his wife and his thugs, that 40% was only able by the skin of it's teeth to get Bush in. Gore actually got more votes. Thank heaven for our founding father's foresight and the electoral college. Now, after four years of Bush essentially abandoning general conservative policy on a number of issues, do you honestly think he will have shored up even more support from the right? The war on terrorism not-withstanding, I'm not convinced of that.

Only by driving conservative policy through to success, could that 40% have been shored up, in fact expanded on. As much as I like some of Bush's war on terrorism, there are a lot of folks out there on our side who are amazed by his lapses in solid anti-terrorist policies. Yasser Arafat and our southern border being two extremely glaring missteps IMO.

[Torie]

Yep, the base has been reassured about Bush's capacity to lead, and make reasoned judgments, and hire good people. The votes he loses from the right, except those whose livelihoods are in stress from the global economy, are small. Most folks understand, that the range of options of a president are limited in the political world. The president must form a coalition from a host of groups that disagree about much (you name it, immigration, presciption drugs, tax cuts for the wealthy, deficits, supply side, no child left behind, a robust interventionist foreign policy, free trade, faith based charity, religion in the public square, gay marriage (23% of Republicans in California support it), etc. As I said, Bush might lose, but it won't be primarily a base problem.