Poll Woes For Bush (CBS Poll) Kerry/Edwards 50% - W/Cheney 42%--W Approval@ 47%

cbsnews.com ^ | 02/28/04 | CBS/AP

[tirednvirginia]

How do we really KNOW how they come up with these polls. They could be calling people mostly in the blue states. Do they make a concerted effort to get a cross-section of the country? Anyway, Republicans have caller-id and don't anwer the phone. lol

[raloxk]

this would give Bush 44% and Kerry/Edwards 44% based on 2000 turnout

If Independents are at 27%, then in order to get Bush to 42% you need roughly about 42% DEM and 31% GOP

That doesnt seem right

[Schattie]

It's hypo^H^H^H^ funny how all the freepers angrily deny negative W polls and gloat when W got a good poll.

[InvisibleChurch]

let kerry blow his wad... as long as he stays in the lead, the xxxillary can't join the race, then when it is too late, W turns on the steam and roars past the silly boy (though i'd rather xxxillary run so W could get her out of our lives for good)

[raloxk]

I am not angrily denying anything, Bush is in trouble, but to arrive at CBS's numbers, you need a DEM/GOP/IND make-up that seems unrealistic.

Id say the true poll numbers are like 44/44 with about 50% approval.

[Abram]

These poll numbers aren't bad, but they aren't great either. The media focus has been on the Ds the last two months. Bush is just now starting to campaign. We grassroots supporters need to get our acts together, solidify the base, and extend our outreach programs and drives. Bush can win this, but it will be without a lot of work from the people on this board. We are not going to agree with everything with this President, but I guarantee that the policies of GWB will be in line a great deal more than the policies of Herman (AKA Kerry) Munster (except the some of the lurkers and trolls out there). Troll away folks...I troll on DU so it is only fair.

[DoughtyOne]

To: DoughtyOne

Bush is strong with his base. He is having trouble because job growth is sluggish (and thus the tax cuts for the rich charge has more traction with a large deficit in play), and the Iraq situation has not resolved itself, and he has been blasted by the Dems in their primary, without much of a riposte. If Bush loses, it won't be because of the disaffection of hyper-political FR types, that were troubled by his compassionate conservatism, or robust free trade policies, or the like. It will be because swing voters in the middle, swing against him, and Kerry finesses his warts (and he has them, as most do who win nominations in a non-annoitment situation).

29 posted on 02/28/2004 7:39:20 PM PST by Torie

Bush is very strong with his base.  I do not believe that base is strong with conservatism.  Further, I do not believe that base is as large as some think.  I don't believe 40% of Republicans are happy with President Bush.  Californians are so upset with him that they have introduced a new proposition 187 to block any further state funds being used to foot the bill for illegals.  If it does as well as it did the last time, what is that going to say about Bush's (no-amnesty) amnesty?  The guy is totally out to lunch on that topic, and is seemingly doing everything possible to kill his chance to get California's 54 electoral votes.

I agree with your assessment of the job growth issue and Iraq resolving itself.  For the good of the country, I hope both those issues are off the table by the fall.  Your comments about the primary giving the dems the stage unchallenged for the most part, are correct.  I must point out that Bush's dad went through this same process.  I hope that his son can go to school on that.

Conventionally I think you are right about disaffection to a degree.  The middle is the swing, and it may swing away from Bush.  That would hurt.  Torie, there are many people who do not vote.  For some reason, at some point in time, they have opted out.  If Bush isn't careful this fall the vote could be smaller than it has been in some time.

I am a hyper-political FR type.  I care what happens to this nation.  I do not see this president stopping our downward spiral.  If Bush is lucky, very few people will agree with me about that.  That will mean one of two things.  Either I am wrong to have adopted the policies that I support, or this nation is bein irreparably harmed by a lack of support for them.  

For the good of the nation, I'll say that I hope I am completely out of touch.  I will point out that I harped on illegal immigration, lapsed entry visas and that whole quagmire for a decade and one a half before 09/11/2001.  Today immigration policy is just as low a priority as it was before 09/11/2001.  We still allow immigration from terrorist states.  We still have open borders.  We still allow trade to pass our borders around 98.5% unchecked.  It's only a matter of time until the chickens come home to roost.

Bush is strong with his base. He is having trouble because job growth is sluggish (and thus the tax cuts for the rich charge has more traction with a large deficit in play), and the Iraq situation has not resolved itself, and he has been blasted by the Dems in their primary, without much of a riposte. If Bush loses, it won't be because of the disaffection of hyper-political FR types, that were troubled by his compassionate conservatism, or robust free trade policies, or the like. It will be because swing voters in the middle, swing against him, and Kerry finesses his warts (and he has them, as most do who win nominations in a non-annoitment situation).

[Constitutional Patriot]

"...(left wing) Americans continue to express doubts about the situation in Iraq, and point to the economy and jobs as the issues they (as left wing liberals) are most concerned about."

Shameless propaganda. Going back to the old communist tactic of telling the lie long enough until it becomes the truth.

[pete anderson]

I find it interesting that many do not believe tis CBS polls that show Kerry-Edwards beating Bush but do believe the CBS poll showing that 59% of the people support a Constitutional Amendment banning gay marriage.

[Schattie]

What? You don't think libs are most concerned with those issues? What the fsck are you talking about?

[DoughtyOne]

I should morph that '40% of republicans' comment. Traditionally around 40% of the populace supports each candidate from their respective parties. You know this. I misstated the premise and wanted to correct it. I'm not convinced republicans are going to hold up their 40% this time around, unless a lot of new blood that doesn't care about conservative issues has joined the party.

[Ken H]

We are going to a single payer socialized medical system within the next generation (20 years). The box is simply getting too tight to squeeze out of.

With any luck, I'll be dead by then so I won't have to worry about getting sick under such a system.

[Torie]

I understood what you meant. I disagree with it. Bush has his 40% locked up, absent unanticipated missteps by him, or unanticipated brilliance by Kerry. And that base has forces binding it that while not as strong as the nucleus of an atom (no force has been found that is stronger in the universe than that), the binding force is much stronger than gravity.

[Torie]

You must be over 60.

[Bombard]

Why even reply to this jacka**? Who ever this person is it is clear that he is a Dem plant. As for the polls, how many voters that are up for grabs are really clueing into the election right now? There are eight months between now and the election, that is forever in politics. Much can happen between now and then. Keep the faith. BUSH 2004!!!!!

[ARCADIA]

W turns on the steam and roars past the silly boy

What is W going to turn on? He has been there for four years and is bound by his record. He would have a hard time re-inventing himself in the final weeks. Bush can attack Kerry as much as he wants to; but it is not the votes Kerry is picking up, rather the votes Bush is losing from his own base that may decide this election. The GOP should have allowed the normal nominating process to take place. At least then they would have had time to temper their candidate as they prepared the stage; now they are going to be down to a single role of the die.

[raloxk]

"The GOP should have allowed the normal nominating process to take place. At least then they would have had time to temper their candidate as they prepared the stage; now they are going to be down to a single role of the die."


What exactly does this mean??????

Do you mean a challenger to GW Bush in the 2004 primaries?? That would be the kiss of death for the general election

[nailspitter]

Actually this poll is a pretty good one for our side. In a head to head matchup, Bush has cut Mr.Ed/Herman Munster's lead by four points in two weeks. This without really camapigning, and at a time Bush's approval rating is dropping (supposedly). How can this be? It must be that even though some people don't like Bush, they don't like Kerry even more. As more and more get to know him, he drops. Hopefully, they won't figure this out in time to save themselves.

[DLfromthedesert]

What's up with you and these polls? Do you want to see a creep like Kerry in the White House?

You sure appear gleeful predicting the ousting of our wonderful, courageous President.

Do you want to bow down before the UN? Do you want our freedoms or lack dictated by the French?

[Owen]

Frankly, over the past 10 days or so there is a distinct feel that Bush had a lead to overcome and has done so. If you look at the head to head Bush Kerry portion of this poll, it shows a very strong closing of the gap by Bush, and so does Rasmussen (whose funding remains unknown).

Bush has begun to recover as the Democrat field has thinned and the sheer number of them trashing him has declined.