[Always Right]

On the topic of legalizing gay marriage, 45 percent of all those polled says they oppose any legal recognition for gay and lesbian couples; 23 percent support full marriage rights for the couples and 24 percent support civil unions or partnerships, but not gay marriage, the poll shows.

Let's see, 45 plus 24 is 69 percent who oppose gay marriage.....

[ambrose]

Kerry Keeps Lead Over Bush

If Bush had a 3% lead over Kerry in this poll, it would be billed as a "statistical dead head"...

These scumbags are so transparent at times.

[Jeff Chandler]

58 percent of all those polled say they think of Bush as an honest person by nature

This is what will doom the rat campaign.

[dc-zoo]

Three points down sure beats the hell out of twelve points from earlier in the week. This means Kerry dropped nine points in under a week.

[Piquaboy]

I don't trust anything Weaknews puts out.

[dc-zoo]

Sorry.. I was thinking CNN/Gallup and their 12 point Kerry lead which every news networks were fawning over.

[raloxk]

So Bush is actually up by 2-3.

[OldFriend]

It's NewsWEAK after all.

[AmishDude]

I hate Newsweek and their fraudulent polls.

[Mike Darancette]

1,019 adults aged 18 and older on February 19-20, 2004. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Not even registered voters - next time try taking the poll on Sunday morning to be sure to exclude people who go to church.

1,019 people just a little over 20 prople per state. LOL.

[ChadGore]

Looks all evened up to me. Now the real campain can begin.

[Jhensy]

Well, gotta give it the customary Newsweek 10-pt. insane-hatred-of-Bush factor, so reality looks like Bush 50%, Kerry 43%.

[Integrityrocks]

I don't have to read any farther than NEWSWEEK to figure out what the numbers would be in this poll. Actually I'm pretty impressed with Bush's numbers, being a NEWSWEEK poll.

[CindyDawg]

1000 adults huh? Where is the kid report?

[Rome2000]

A statement by the National Council on Public Polls'
Polling Review Board

January 3, 2001

PRESIDENTIAL POLL PERFORMANCE 2000

The accuracy of the election projections based on the pre-election polls of 2000 was surpassed only by the polls of 1976 and 1960, according to a study release today by the National Council on Public Polls. This year's final polls had an average error of 1.1 percentage points on the estimates for George W. Bush and Al Gore. The error on the third place finisher, Ralph Nader, was 1.3 percentage points.

These results were based on the work of 10 polling organizations that used traditional methods for conducting their polls.

Poll	Bush/Gore Error	Nader Error
Harris Poll	0.0%	2.0%
CBS News	0.5	1.0
IBD/CSM/Tipp	1.0	1.0
ICR/Politics Now	1.0	4.0
Gallup/CNN/USA Today	1.0	1.0
Pew Research	1.0	1.0
Zogby/Reuters	1.0	2.0
ABC News/Wash Post	1.5	0.0
NBC News/WSJ	1.5	0.0
Battleground	2.5	1.0
Average	1.1	1.3

The 2000 election was a tie between Bush and Gore and was the closest election since the Kennedy-Nixon election in 1960. Democrat Gore had a slight edge in the CBS and Zogby polls, while seven of the other polls leaned to Republican Bush. The Harris poll had it tied. Four years ago, all 9 polls erred in favor of overstating Democratic Clinton. Challenger Nader was overstated by 7 of the 10 polls this year. Two got the Nader vote correct. All other polls overstated Nader's vote. Third party candidates typically get less support in the election than they do in the final pre-election polls.

Two other organizations used methods that previously had not been used. Harris Interactive conducted its polls on the Internet among a panel of e-mail users and forecast a tie. Rasmussen's Portrait of America poll was off by 4.5 percentage points on each of the top two candidates. Rasmussen had its interviews conducted by a computer playing a recorded voice with no live interviewer intervening.

Alternative Method Polls	Bush/Gore Error	Nader Error
Harris Interactive	0.0%	1.0%
Rasmussen	4.5

The ten traditional polls used random samples of telephone households and live interviewers to obtain vote intentions from likely voters. Screening questions that were unique to each poll identified likely voters. More detailed methods statements are available from the individual polling organization.

2000-Preliminary	Gore	Bush	Nader	Undecided	Other
Election Results	48%	48%	3%		1%
Zogby	48%	46%	5%	0%	1%
CBS	45%	44%	4%	5%	2%
Harris (Phone)	47%	47%	5%	0%	1%
Gallup/CNN/USA Today	46%	48%	4%	0%	2%
Pew Research	47%	49%	4%	0%	0%
IBD/CSM/TIPP	46%	48%	4%	0%	2%
ICR/Politics Now	44%	46%	7%	1%	2%
NBC/WSJ	44%	47%	3%	4%	2%
ABC/WashPost	45%	48%	3%	3%	1%
Battleground	45%	50%	4%	0%	1%
Alternative Methods
Harris Interactive	47%	47%	4%	0%	2%
Rasmussen	49%	40%	4%

For this election, 2 of the 10 polls overstated Gore's vote while 7 overstated Bush. In the 1996 election, 8 out of 9 polls overstated Democrat Clinton. One poll each year neither under- or over- stated the winners' percentage.

Presidential Poll Performance 2000 Error Calculator

Final National Presidential Poll Results, 1936-2000 For more information about this and other polling issues, contact the NCPP Polling Review Board Members.

 

NCPP Polling Review Board Members

Harry O'Neill (Chairman) Roper Starch Worldwide 609-921-3333 x228 (office)

Warren Mitofsky Mitofsky International 212-980-3031 (office) mitofsky@mindspring.com

Humphrey Taylor Harris Interactive 212-539-9657 (office) htaylor@harrisinteractive.com

For more information, please contact us at: info@ncpp.org

[BJungNan]

Newsweak? Is that the same magazine that recently showed Bush and Kerry on the cover with Bush in unflatering black and white and Kerry in full color?

[LS]

I have to say that based on the history of Newsweak four years ago, if they have Bush down by two, then Bush is in for a landslide. This is especially true for this time of the year, this far out---barring a major unexpected event.

[GiveEmDubya]

I can't remember which liberal poll just about always underestimates the Republican vote by about 5-10%. Is it this one?

Not that it matters, for 2 reasons: 1) 1019 ADULTS? For all we know, half of the people polled are not registered nor have any intention of doing so! 2) I'd take 50 state polls any day of the week over this BS.

[Reactionary]

I just don't get it. pre-Howard Dean Kerry was a nobody, lucky to rank third or fourth in various caucuses. Now he's "electable" and "ahead of Bush."

I don't see excitement or a groundswell of support for this man. If it exists, it exists in Liberal La La Land and nowhere else.

[Fee]

This is too early. GWB has not campaigned and the media/Kerry has pounded him and all they can get is a 3 percent lead?? When GWB campaigned against Gore he maintained 15 to 18 percent lead until August when Americans started to pay attention to the presidential race. The lead shrank to 9 percent and then went to Gore's favor slightly on the weekend before election day (DWI and independent's cold feet for an unknown).