If Bush had a 3% lead over Kerry in this poll, it would be billed as a "statistical dead head"...
These scumbags are so transparent at times.
As long as you get one more vote than your opponent in crucial states, that is all that matters.
If Kerry or Edwards mop up California and NY, it still is the same as winning by just one vote.
A good 35 states are probably out of play for both sides. The numbers that really matter are what the polls say in Florida, Louisiana, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, West Virginia, New Mexico, etc...
California, New York, and Illinois are over 20% of the country for example. They went Gore in 2000, and are likely to go Democrat again. Bush won anyways. So, if Bush is leading by 51 to 49% in every other state, yet is getting creamed in those 3 by 60% to 40%. The national poll will show him losing 51 to 49%, even though he would absolutely kill in the electoral college.
He would have 47 states, and still lose the popular vote and the polls.
We are not running a national election here people. We are running a state by state one. These national polls are not only a waste of time, but extremely counter productive. I wish a decent polling unit would just do a state by state poll of battle ground states, and then give us the break down. That is all that will matter come November.