WHY INTELLIGENCE FAILED

New York Post ^ | 1/30/04 | RALPH PETERS

[kattracks]

January 30, 2004 -- FEW human beings argue with con clusions they want to believe. When the U.S. intelligence community in sisted that Saddam's regime possessed hidden weapons of mass destruction, President Bush and his advisers welcomed the "evidence."

Bush believed correctly that Saddam needed to go. And the supportive analysis provided by U.S. intelligence was seconded by the British. Even the French and German intel organizations believed Saddam possessed weapons of mass destruction.

[Texasforever]

I wouldn't be so quick to close the book on WMD just yet. There could be a lot of egged faces with this rush to judgment.

[kattracks]

I agree.

It ain't over 'till it's over.

[clee1]

They are going to find huge stockpiles of WMD buried out in the desert somewhere.

All we have to do is find the people that buried them.

[Criminal Number 18F]

Peters is usually a lot better as a novelist than as a columnist. His thinking is usually about as deep as a bird bath. But he does have a handful of good points in this one:

• we rely too much on technological systems

• our human capabilities are deficient because they have been neglected (the leaders in the intel community are as much to blame as Congress on this, though. The last DCI who was comfortable conducting operations was Casey, and even he couldn't undo the damage all the dud admirals did).

• Even if someone in the community wakes up and tells Congress what to do (unlikely), and Congress votes against self-interest and pushes talent (even less likely), it will take a decade or more to get traction.

Hopefully he will get some attention... the first step in fixing something is to recognise that it's busted.

However, a very important point is missing here. And that's this: no matter what we do with the intel community, the possibility of another surprize attack will exist as long as we have enemies with human will and human imagination.

Wesley Clark's claim that he could prevent another 9/11 is... well, it shows he's barking mad. The only way to prevent such attacks is to study the people who wish to do them, identify those people, and then hunt them down in their foreign lairs, and exterminate them like rats.

d.o.l.

Criminal Number 18F

[DeepDish]

"We spend well over $30 billion a year on intelligence, primarily to buy and maintain technological systems."

A billion dollars in shoe leather would have helped immensely.

[2nd Bn, 11th Mar]

Agree. I remember reading reports before the campaign (not the war - the war is the Global War on Terror)in Iraq began. They said that Iraqi WMDs were being sent to Syria.
This fits with Saddam's ways - in 1991 he sent his air force to Iran, as I recall.

Semper Fi,

[Consort]

WHY INTELLIGENCE FAILED

The Torracelli Principle.

[Valin]

Agree the book is still open on this. But his underlying analysis is still valid. We need to hit human intelligence harder. As for the "group think", boy that's a tough one to overcome.

[lepton]

# our human capabilities are deficient because they have been neglected (the leaders in the intel community are as much to blame as Congress on this, though. The last DCI who was comfortable conducting operations was Casey, and even he couldn't undo the damage all the dud admirals did).

This wasn't just a bureaucratic failing. Clinton stood by as Hussein rounded them up en mass and slaughtered the organizations that the U.S. HAD built in Iraq - despite Hussein having to violate his cease-fire to do so. ...And the Clinton Administration canned the guys who saw it coming and tried to prosecute them.

[Utah Girl]

Excellent RP ping for you.

[Go Gordon]

They are going to find huge stockpiles of WMD buried out in the desert somewhere. All we have to do is find the people that buried them.

They may found at the same spot. It should be easy though. The bodies are pushing up cactus, the chemicals turn the cactus neon green .

[clee1]

Iraq is a large country, much of it uninhabited and desolate.

We will eventually catch some of the people that ordered the hiding of the WMD's - they will be made to cough up the info.