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Safire: At the Brokered Convention
The New York Times ^ | 01/28/04 | William Safire

Posted on 01/27/2004 8:22:08 PM PST by Pokey78

Were we are in Thumbsucker Central in Boston's Fleet Center, overlooking the Democratic convention as the unthinkable — an unpredictable roll call of the states — is about to begin.

A brief recap for those of you who tuned out after the front-loaded Democratic primaries turned into a long, hard slog. After the New Hampshire results were in, John "Bring It On!" Kerry maintained his (professedly unwanted) front-runnership, but Howard "Yee-haw!" Dean recovered strongly from his Iowa waker-upper. John "Two Americas, Count 'Em!" Edwards and Wesley "Call Me General" Clark were nicely positioned for their South Carolina comebacks, and those of us in the pundit dodge began to dream of this dramatic moment.

Then came the March 2 "coastal divide," with New York going for Kerry and California for Dean. That split led to this: No more the boring convention with dreary speeches, oleaginous biodocumentaries and unspontaneous demonstrations. Here in Boston tonight, all the world is tuned in as Democratic power brokers wheel and deal in their smoke-free rooms. New Mexico's governor, Bill Richardson, chosen to be permanent chair of the convention to counter Bush's near-amnesty bid for Latino votes, is rapping the gavel. . . .

Alabama!

"Mr. Chairman, Alabama—— passes."

The dispute within that delegation is between the supporters of Edwards, the "good young boy," and a man dressed in an argyle sweater over a Bosnian uniform waving a Clark sign. Let's turn to the pundit from Black News, the network so lugubriously named when Conrad Black, megamedia's comeback kid, wrested control of Fox News from Rupert Murdoch:

"The fight is over a basket of old Avis buttons because Edwards and Clark are battling for the No. 2 spot on a Kerry or Dean ticket."

That competition is for the Southernization of any ticket with a New Englander at the top. The general's forces are calling his home state "Clarkansaw," while the youthful trial lawyer's plaintive pitch to be the running mate centers on "I gave up my Senate seat to run, and now I represent all those folks who really need a job." But the V.P. nomination will turn on who can deliver more delegates to the two men in front, neither of whom has the needed 2,162 delegates needed for a majority. First to Kerry headquarters:

"Edwards has more state delegates pledged to him than Clark, and would be more loyal to Kerry than the general, but Clark has more of the P.L.E.O.'s."

Our acronymic reporter refers to Party Leaders and Elected Officials, unelected delegates who make up 15 percent of the convention. These party hacks are controlled by power brokers whose cellphone numbers I will now punch up. To the Old-Left Liberal P.B.: What say you?

"I'm yanking the chain of my delegates to go for Kerry-Edwards, liberal but not unelectable."

To the D.N.C., McAuliffe, P.P.I. centrists: Your preference?

"We're happier with Kerry-Clark, because Edwards is a spellbinder who could mount a challenge to the Restoration four years from now."

What's notable is the absence of any offer by Kerry to Dean, to create a unity ticket à la Kennedy-Johnson or Reagan-Bush. To the Dean P.B.: Would Howard consider the role of running mate?

"Never. Edwards and Clark will hold their delegates past the first ballot — there goes Wyoming, and still no majority — and we'll start to pick off Kerry delegates on the second."

What makes you so sure the tide will turn?

"Because we'll threaten to bolt if we don't win, and there would go Kerry's `electability' argument. If Iraq breaks up next month, or if the market tanks or bin Laden rises again, our independent party — only party that was against the war — would have a chance to win."

Or Dean could secretly offer the No. 2 spot to both Clark and Edwards and get their delegates, but then name Kerry, who couldn't refuse if Lieberman gave the double double-cross his blessing. Delicious.

But wait — what's that call booming out over the loudspeakers, reminiscent of the 1940 "voice from the sewer" of F.D.R.'s third-term conclave?

The chair has lost control of the floor and delegates are snaking through the aisles, shouting, "We Want Hillary!" All deals are off; we have the politicians' nightmare and the pundits' dream — an open convention!  


TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2004; brokeredconvention; dncconvention; dwarves; safire; williamsafire

1 posted on 01/27/2004 8:22:09 PM PST by Pokey78
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To: Pokey78
Oh God, please. Pretty please. Pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty please. Oh man, Frito Lay and Budweiser are praying for this. Please dear Lord, please, please, please, please, please, please, please.
2 posted on 01/27/2004 8:31:48 PM PST by Beck_isright ("Those who stand for nothing fall for anything."-Alexander Hamilton)
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To: Pokey78
bump
3 posted on 01/27/2004 8:34:37 PM PST by RippleFire
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To: Beck_isright
Be careful what you ask for...

Still, I think the more likely Hillary scenario, is an untimely "accident" involving the nominee 10 days before the election. Hillary steps in and spends the last ten days doing softball interviews with Katy Kouric and Larry King.

Don't think she can't win a 10 day campaign.
4 posted on 01/27/2004 8:35:35 PM PST by ambrose
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To: Pokey78; fourdeuce82d; Travis McGee; El Gato; JudyB1938; Ernest_at_the_Beach; Robert A. Cook, PE; ..
BTTT

More than a few chuckles
5 posted on 01/27/2004 8:39:03 PM PST by neverdem (Xin loi min oi)
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To: Beck_isright
Sorry - wont happen. wish it will, but it won - Dean has BLOWN IT. ... Dean is trailing in both Missouri and SC. ... Kerry will win in the grinding way that Mondale won in 1984.

As of right now, only Dean, Edwards and Kerry are viable candidates. And Kerry is ahead those two.

Expect Kerry to clinch it by early March.

6 posted on 01/27/2004 8:42:55 PM PST by WOSG (I don't want the GOP to become a circular firing squad and the Socialist Democrats a majority.)
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To: Pokey78
Dean had it all and blew it!! Kerry was a lost cause!! Kerry did nothing to earn his victory....Dean has no one to blame but himself...he blew it!
7 posted on 01/27/2004 8:52:37 PM PST by whadizit
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To: neverdem; Howlin
I don't know, I don't want to see hillary!
8 posted on 01/27/2004 8:56:38 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach (The terrorists and their supporters declared war on the United States - and war is what they got!!!!)
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To: ambrose
"Still, I think the more likely Hillary scenario, is an untimely "accident" involving the nominee 10 days before the election"

. . .agree; I too hold for the 'accident' scenario!

And surely, no fool, would take her on in the NO. 2 position for the same reason. . .

9 posted on 01/27/2004 9:29:46 PM PST by cricket
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To: ambrose
It'll be Clinton/Clark in the end, because they have something the others don't:

a signed-in-blood contract with Lucifer.

10 posted on 01/27/2004 9:31:56 PM PST by Travis McGee (----- www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com -----)
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To: Pokey78
Awesome piece.
That's two very good ones in a row for Bill.
11 posted on 01/27/2004 9:33:39 PM PST by Lancey Howard
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To: Travis McGee
One thing I am convinced of... if it wasn't for the 22nd Amendment, Slick would likely be running for a fourth term right now...
12 posted on 01/27/2004 10:04:17 PM PST by ambrose
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To: ambrose
I agree. A month or so, or maybe two weeks before the election some dirt from the FBI files will cause the nominee to step down and the court will allow Hillary's name to be put on the ticket.
13 posted on 01/27/2004 10:07:33 PM PST by Terry Mross
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To: Terry Mross
Hillary won't need a court order to do a last minute switcheroo... people technically vote for Electors, who then cast votes in the Electoral College... they are unpledged, and could legally switch their votes to Hillary without a formal change to the ballots.
14 posted on 01/27/2004 10:11:48 PM PST by ambrose
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To: WOSG
Do you have Missouri numbers on the donkey primary?
15 posted on 01/27/2004 10:44:44 PM PST by KC_Conspirator (This space for rent)
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To: Pokey78
The networks would throw out of the window their plans to limit convention coverage to one hour per night during the four day convention week...
16 posted on 01/27/2004 10:47:28 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: ambrose
I was writing this novel almost four years ago. I should have finished it.
17 posted on 01/27/2004 10:49:56 PM PST by doug from upland (Don't wait until it is too late to stop Hillary -- do something today!)
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To: Beck_isright
An open convention is the GOP's wet dream, but I'll toss my penny into the ring and say that the nomination will be decided on the third ballot and will be one of the seven dwarfs. As to the VP slot, I'd look to Richardson.

Urban vs. rural. This is going to be fascinating to watch, and even better, the millions they'll waste putting food on the table of my contemporaries.
18 posted on 01/28/2004 1:53:33 AM PST by kingu (I vote Republican in the general, conservative in the primary.)
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Comment #19 Removed by Moderator

To: ambrose
I would be that's the plan.
20 posted on 01/28/2004 7:41:00 AM PST by Terry Mross
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