The President’s Plan Will Not Work

Is the President taking the wrong approach to space by developing a long-term program of exploration rather than promoting the commercialization of space?

The recent announcement by the President to commence human exploration of the Moon in preparation for human excursions to Mars by mid-century will not work. It will not work because it is based on the flawed assumption that the government will somehow sustain a thirty-year program of high technology and high risk for reasons not at all clear to the taxpayer. The program, assuming it gets started at all, will suffer annual budget challenges by Congress and the political whims of elected and appointed officials. The program will also be vulnerable to changes in policy due to national security, such as another major terrorist attack on the homeland. The immense journey

From the perspective of a national imperative, rather than from individual motivations that vary widely, the solar system is a territory to be discovered and eventually exploited by our growing civilization. Explorers and pioneers will discover new celestial and orbital environments, preparing them for more risk-averse settlers interested in exploiting natural resources to sustain stable governments and economies in space. During the 20th century and probably for another few hundred years into the future, explorers and pioneers will venture into space developing and testing new machines, prospecting and evaluating new environments, and establishing new markets. Settlers will come later, establishing permanent communities as industries mature and stability is achieved. This exploration-pioneering-settling process has been followed by many different cultures across millennia.

It will take thousands of years before an integrated spacefaring civilization, composed of diverse societies, is established among the nine planets. It will evolve into being and cannot be forced by decree or directive. The President’s mission today, leveraging the hegemonic power of the United States, is to recognize the immense journey ahead, identify the initial roles for each space sector, and prepare near Earth space for the first wave of migration.

The migration argument for the human exploration and exploitation of space is nothing new, having been discussed by some anthropologists for years. However, the bold vision of an eventual solar system-wide civilization of humans and machines continues to receive little attention from those making big decisions on our behalf. Even the public would find the vision bordering on the abstract, so far beyond their daily lives as to be easy fodder against an elected official suggesting the approach. To alleviate this outcome, the White House needs to carefully draft a plan designed to link the big picture vision to the practical concerns of today’s Americans. The vision and the plan must also be convincing to Congress, the one holding the purse strings for the government’s role. The vision is only a general direction for the future, intended to be brighter than the direction followed in the past. The plan is what’s necessary to carry out all or part of the vision. An economic development plan for space

The President’s job, among other things, is to not only provide a vision, but also develop a strategic plan to realize the vision according to the best interests of the American people. Therein lies the crux: Should the plan showcase the government’s capabilities, or the capabilities of the people of the United States? The answer is clearly the latter. One of the government’s legitimate roles, working closely with industry partners, is to enable free markets to gain a foothold and prosper, to seed commercial activity when free enterprise cannot do it on its own. Then, when markets flourish, the government stands back and only provides those services deemed appropriate by the people, like keeping the peace, regulation of certain markets, licensing, and so on. Space is not at all different than Earth when it comes to economic potential. The differences lie in magnitude.

Instead of a vast, unsustainable government-only initiative to send people to the Moon and Mars, the White House should have drafted a space economic development plan. An economic plan includes a broad spectrum of sectors and is likely to be supported by a greater number of Americans because it represents a strategy of investment. A plan dedicated to exploration and scientific discovery (apparently the driving force behind the President’s current plan) is only part of the big picture, and not the motivating force of the majority.

The President is the only figure capable of drafting a general plan defining the roles and responsibilities of key sectors in the development of space. This does not mean the government will dictate or otherwise mandate action (beyond fiddling with organization charts at NASA), but rather it can provide a framework necessary to consistently guide our nation into space by fostering a partnership between the private sector, the public sector, and the communal sector. The government, for example, must play a key role in opening high-risk, high-cost doors into the realm beyond, and stoke the flames of innovation and entrepreneurship by providing any one or a combination of proven tools for economic growth. For example, NASA should be split in two parts, one dedicated to research and development of aeronautical engineering solutions, while the other dedicated to astronautical challenges. The results can then be used by commercial entities.

Other government agencies must also contribute. The Department of Transportation should continue its role in developing systems designed to facilitate the integration of air and space traffic, streamlining the licensing of commercial space vehicles and spaceports, and promote the commercial launch industry. The Department of Commerce has a role in propping up nascent and emerging space markets, like adventure travel, orbital research facilities, hotels, and other markets likely to sprout up in the coming decades. Later, as more people live and work in space and as assets grow in number, the government’s military space role in will become clearer, and the establishment of police, emergency, and military services will become necessary. Only then will a space force make sense as a separate armed service under the Department of Defense or its future equivalent. Remember, we are still talking about the exploratory-pioneering wave of migration, one that will last a very long time. By the time settlement takes place many generations from now, new governmental and economic systems, as well as different cultural norms, will define the next steps. All we can do is accept the logic that settlement will occur and work toward that general goal. The specifics will become clearer as we go.

The commercial sector needs to be an integral part of the Bush space initative. I think it will be, but the President needs to clarify this to not only win over critics, but to make the program a success.

BUMP I want to hear from the commercial people on FR about how any company would take the risk of an enormous investment which wouldn't pay off for the foreseeable future. Is this possible? Would such a company be able to maintain rights to any discoveries, especially with EU and UN claiming all rights belong to all nations?

Frankly, I don't know the answers. I just want to hear from those who do.

It will take thousands of years before an integrated spacefaring civilization, composed of diverse societies, is established among the nine planets.

Well, thank you Nostradamus.

It will take thousands of years before an integrated spacefaring civilization, composed of diverse societies, is established among the nine planets.

Maybe, but 90% of it will be completed in 400 or 500 years, if not a lot sooner.

The point is that like down here on Earth, private industry will find a way to make a profit, when the government gets out of its way. A Constitutional Amendment protecting off-Earth private property rights (assuming that someone establishes a physical claim at least tele-robotically) would go a long way in encouraging private investment in space development.

As long as the liberals keep high barriers to entering the space business, only the naive or reckless enter the space game on their own money. Thank God we still have some of each in this country, as they are the ones prying the gates to the wealth of space open for the rest of us. Why not make their Herculean task a little easier?

That right there is the key. There is real controversy over property rights in space. Who sets who gets what? Is it a matter of who gets there first? Who claims it first? Who has the guns to keep it? Whose GOVERNMENT has the guns to keep it?

Until that's settled there's little point to space exploration. It's far too expensive anyway. If we aren't bothering with the mineral wealth of Siberia or the deep seabed, we sure aren't going to be in a rush to mine space, which is the most often cited reason for business to get involved.

9 posted on 01/26/2004 6:03:05 PM PST by LibertarianInExile (When law is used to promote inequity, those oppressed will inevitably use it to turn the tables.)

The exploration of space seems far more likely to proceed along the lines of the Exploration of the 'New World' where sovereigns granted quasi-governmental authority to private interests who acted for both financial and 'imperial' purposes. The state is the only entity that might be willing to accept the enormous risk. Think Columbus and Queen Isabella or the British Crown and the Hudson's Bay company or the East-India Corporation (both companies who's managers commanded British troops!).
I expect some day we'll see something like the US Space Development Corporation with monopolisitc and state supported economic activity. Not a very classically liberal model at all.

11 posted on 01/26/2004 9:18:03 PM PST by The_Eaglet (Conservative chat on IRC: http://searchirc.com/search.php?F=exact&T=chan&N=33&I=conservative)

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