[Alberta's Child]

That's interesting. Last week, I posted a scenario of a Bush victory by a 289-249 margin -- I was pessimistic about the GOP's chances in several swing states.

Based on this list, I'll apply what I call my "Pennsylvania Rule," which is as follows: Since I think Pennsylvania is going to be the closest state race in November, I assumed that the 63% chance of winning is about 13 points too high (i.e., it should be 50%). If you reduce Bush's percentage by 13 points in each state (let's assume that the distortion in the Pennsylvania numbers is carried through every state) and re-work the numbers, you come up with a 285-253 GOP margin.

[NEPA]

I doubt that Bush will take PA. My own guess is maybe he has 47-48% of the vote.

PA lags the rest of the country in economic recovery, at least my part of PA does. Add to that the fraud machine that Govenor Fast Eddie will be rolling out and it's really an uphill battle for Bush in PA.