2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Wednesday, January 21, 2003 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 355 Electoral Votes and the Democratic candidate would receive 183 Electoral Votes.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Solson]

in other words...a landslide.

[anniegetyourgun]

Gosh, I'm amazed at how close to reality that probably is. What's their track (no pun intended) record?

[nwrep]

No its not a landslide.

[.cnI redruM]

Solid win. This is a plausible scenario.

[Howlin]

FYI.

[Momaw Nadon]

Generally, political futures markets are very accurate because people are betting with their own money.

On the other hand, the betting on the Iowa outcome was not especially accurate.

This may be due to the complexity of the caucus system.

[Always Right]

Gosh, I'm amazed at how close to reality that probably is. What's their track (no pun intended) record?

Shoot, last election they could not even accurately project the winner of each state a day before the election, now they want to tell us they know 9 months before the election.....

[TommyDale]

I'm not so sure that California is solidly in the Democratic column this time...

[So Cal Rocket]

However... if you look at those states where Bush is at 75% or less and put them in the Dem's column, the Dem's win...

This will not be a cakewalk by any means - it's a long time to election day, and the Dem's don't have a candidate yet.

[Moosilauke]

now they want to tell us they know 9 months before the election.....

They're not telling us anything. They are simply providing a market where people may risk their money on their political hunches.

[So Cal Rocket]

I'd wager the house, the car, and the kids that Bush doesn't carry Wash DC!! To say he has a 10% chance of carrying the district is about 10% too high.

[Dog Gone]

One thing it tells me is that we should give New England back to England.

[jmstein7]

BUMP!

[jmstein7]

BUMP!

[EERinOK]

I went through the list very carefully with a worst case scenario in mind, giving any state gore won last time to the dems, leaving all projected dem votes in place as listed, and giving the dems the benefit of the doubt (zombie vote) in states such as Nevada and WV listed for Bush.

With that approach, i came up with a 278-260 gop victory.

[Momaw Nadon]

Here are two more political futures sites that may be of interest:

Iowa Electronic Markets 2004 US PRESIDENTIAL VOTE SHARE MARKET and newsfutures.com U.S. Presidential Election

[gridlock]

69% chance that Bush wins Florida!

This state was decided by fewer than 1000 votes last time round. What has happened in the last three years to solidify Bush's position in Florida?

[AmishDude]

This is fun. Thanks. Plus, check out the Deaniac topic list!

[PhiKapMom]

If I were drawing a map, this sure looks a lot like a map I would draw for Pres Bush. Texas comes in first for Bush and Oklahoma 2nd just .05 ahead of a lot of the rest of the South. These numbers look good and what I would expect.

I think we have a chance to take Maine if Kerry is the nominee -- they don't like Kerry as too many of people from MA have moved to Southern Maine.