[.cnI redruM]

Solid win. This is a plausible scenario.

[So Cal Rocket]

However... if you look at those states where Bush is at 75% or less and put them in the Dem's column, the Dem's win...

This will not be a cakewalk by any means - it's a long time to election day, and the Dem's don't have a candidate yet.

[HitmanLV]

This is almost the scenario I have said for months now - Bush wins all of his 2000 states and some more, while the dems win some (but not all) of their 2000 states and no more.

I have been consistently saying 325-350 EVs. The truth is too many states are just out of reach for us with large urban centers, large pockets of dem voters that won't budge, etc.

The good news is that this won't be nearly as dramatic as the numbers may suggest at first blush: of the Dems 180-190 EVs, 77 are CA, WA, OR, and Hawaii (note that the analysis gives Oregon to Bush but I write off the whole left coast of the lower 48.

In other words, its over before the Cali polls are closed.